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Bamps, many/most? of the contracting construction never shut down in the UK. Guess msm never let this be known then? All I'll say is that my proteges of yesteryear have been operational throughout. Not fully - certainly 40/60 is my interpretation. Also my UK neighbour , site based, employed by LSE major player, he has been 100% operational throughout ... not for me to name the company. As I had a varied career, construction - industrial and commercial - from 94 - 2011, I learned - no matter what my job title was - about the shortages in the labour market. That resulted in my advocating for and supporting all apprentices in the hope of making a difference, in any way possible. Some "things" did come to fruition in certificating after I called it a day. As for governmental input, well all I know from personal experience is that they fell at the first hurdle, way back.
Little old me took some to task when they wore that hat. They did not have a clue. Having called it a day over 9 years ago I can only conclude that it never got any better. Furthermore, all that I personally hope for is that those that I passed my knowledge onto are able to make a difference... for the better. Additionally, in takeover world or competing world, if I personally could take the business away from the competition in Europe, then so can all others. Very much written from a personal stance Bamps, that's what realists do, real life experiences. Hope that your lad wins this war/game. My surviving lad is 24/7 with his child while the madre does her frontline stuff ... with all the support and guidance that I'm able to offer.
It's going to awkward opening construction sites without opening a host of other parts of the economy such as builders merchants and their suppliers, plant, public transport, waste removal, deliveries to name a few and also ppe shortages. It will be interesting to see what happens in Spain.
Why I mentioned construction companies is that to get those sites up and running should be fairly straightforward whereas the housing market has to get off the floor first, all the existing chains may have fallen apart. I know my lads firm could start up again quickly with their housing association work.
My background is construction and was never happy with all the foreign takeovers , this country is in short supply of large civil engineering companies, prices can only rise with all the infrastructure announced in the budget recently.
Bamps, as I'm locked down in Spain I have been trying to ascertain whether TW workers are returning to the sites on the Costa today. Might offer a bit more insight into how things are going to play out on the UK housebuilders sites. I understand that the unions at this end have had a lot of input into the return of the construction workers today - all based on £££'s ... Never been into unions myself, what has struck me here is that they (the unions) appear to be more in support of the companies than the employees - well that's my take on things - given that they (the unions) wanted the workers to "work off" any payments that they received due to site closures, all to be repaid by year end, by working unpaid overtime. Could only envisage that resulting in unrest, so maybe they'll backtrack on such an agreement. Investing in contracting construction companies became a no-no for me years ago, as they ventured into service provision - resulting in a lot of outsourcing and debt mountains - instead of just sticking to what they were best at imv.
At the moment I'm not keen on house builders in this market but have kept a few of TW. I must admit I'm concerned about a new pension deficit here, I can't see the company contributing in this market and the asset value of the fund will have fallen.
That's why I have spread my portfolio thinly and it has worked so far.
I don't want to get too involved with medical stocks and will get out when appropriate but now is not the time, as news on testing and sales come out. I always keep to the sell a few to get your money back.
Ncyt has been an extremely good only downside is their accounting is poor.
Sng is Tom's tip it looks good.
Cerp are in oil my last oil play, only for high risk but could have a big upside.
Itm are in hydrogen my best performing stock over this crisis.
GGP are my favourite for big growth in gold, the assets are huge but not confirmed yet. Any profits I make at moment are going in there, I got in at 0.6p and steadily increasing my average.
As time unfolds with this crisis I will gradually put back into builders but possibly the contract companies first before housebuilders, it will be easier for the government to get that side going first
Nige, Bamps, all interested in the testing sector, you might wish to research AVCT/add to your watchlist. Like yourselves I too have positions in the bio sector - that without the current circumstances I wouldn't normally venture into. Also I wouldn't normally mention a bio stock on a hb forum, so this post is solely to bring the stock to your attention if you haven't yet come across it.
Thanks for your reply. I'm in the process of adding new companies to my system, which means that all basic research on hold for now til I get things working again.
As you will see from my prev messages I was tempted to sell ncyt as Sp rose above 500, but then Sp went into freefall until less than 320, so put a buy in at 320, but I was too late and settled at 378. Could well happen again on Tuesday, so will watch closely.
Original tip for ggp and ncyt was from Bamps (who has also tipped ygen, sng, itm, odx and cerp, so definitely worth a look at them).
A difficult analysis is to judge value when no Divi and not much sales (but the same for most companies) while tw sales will be no more than delayed. They remain as safe as houses so basically I don't think it has affected their value much at all. Certainly not by the collapse we have seen, but then a big rise last week. Personally I think a drop of 10% is justifiable but not 40% or whatever it is now.
Even a recession will not affect tw much (austerity didn't), kids getting married will leave home and need a roof. It doesn't matter that they rent a flat or buy an old house - it must end up in a new house sale as the mortgage train unravels.
I live in the North East and infection rate just 0.1%, but don't know how they can calc that when Govt doesn't know how many people are infected, nor how they can calc a death rate. Govt handling of the situation is ****potical as usual, obviously we need more testing / tracing (ie ncyt, ygen, odx).
I had an Injun for Sunday dinner which was great, but now today has become yesterdays tomorrow, but its been cancelled anyway by Govt, so doubt you will get this message. Not too bovvered - I like arguing with myself!
Keep well and BoL
Thanks for warm welcome. Your attention to detail is admirable, I doubt many put as much time and effort in as you do.
Yes, we've certainly been hit for six a few times over last few weeks (in Bdev too) but the lower order are settling in now :)
No, I haven't sold any NCYT, although I have been tempted to along the way. Hopefully we'll have a sales update Tuesday morning. I don't have life changing money in it, as I'm wary of aim stocks, but I wish I'd put more in under £1. Still, a brilliant return to date.
Good timing with your NCYT purchase.
GGP ticking along nicely, I was too alerted to Greatland by TomE. Thanks, Tom!
I do broadly agree with your analysis, but the wider impact of a recession has to have an impact on builders at least in the short-term (you could argue we've just seen a bit of that from a market perspective) but as demand will outstrip supply for years to come, like you, I believe it's a good long-term investment.
Hope you're having a nice weekend.
Welcome to tw board. Not many rude people on here and they don't last long, cos this board has good people on it who won't put up with it.
Working late as usual and graphs are telling me no sector has ever been hit so heavily, so quickly in history. Could be wrong but doubt it. This is far worse than 2008 and Austerity, Brexit meaningless in comparison.
I'm also in ncyt and ggp, (courtesy of Bamps and Tom), just wish I had got in sooner. One idea I had was to watch the number of posts (published somewhere here - I think on Home page) then look them up in detail. Generally I ignore Oil and Pharmas cos too many big players involved, but realised ncyt had a pretty unique and essential product. I hope you never sold any.
I had decided on a plan Monday and sold some shares in bdev to buy ncyt, which I did on Tuesday - now 71% up, Thursday my plan was to buy some more but they went up to 510+ so was about to sell half, then Sp went south to 318, so new plan buy some more with limit of 320. That didn't go thru cos they were on the way back up again. I still think they have massive potential for Sp increase - maybe 500 + on Tuesday close.
Anyway, ncyt and ggp are not LTBH for me, Builders are cos I think they are worth twice current Sp at least. The situation is becoming clearer now (hence tw Sp increase), and how has this changed their prospects? No Sales lost, just delayed.
World Bank and Govts will do their best to avoid a recession, so not inevitable, and even if it does happen people still need roofs.
One thing I have been saying for a long time is Builders are pretty immune to Politics, Brexit, Flu Austerity and Recession.
I look forward to a reply and BoL
Great to see TW up too, at 143 wow great stuff for sure.
HAve a great w/e to you and family.
It's been a longtime that I've had a share spike in a straight line, great feeling :))
Good luck stay safe
Just like to say well done chaps on Ncyt,
Especially you bamps!
Nice to see someone do well!
Great stuff. I just gave you a mention over on the GGP board :-)
NCYT are doing great again today at nearly £3. @295 ATM. Thanks again for the heads up there :-)
Keep well as the Suns out.
I think TW have broke their downward tred now and IMO will slowly get back up week by week. All my spare is tied up so its a shame I did not get bacl in at just over £1 herebut loads of fun ATM and will get back in before the Divi in June .
Good that Tw rising, with the up and down swings it could be a good play but think I leave that for Itm
Took a very small punt on Odx yesterday wish it had been a large one they doubled this morning, they formed a consortium with Oxford University to do with making a vaccine.
Well done with your purchases
TWIMPS doing great again today at a nice 7.5% rise so far at 142. Great stuff for sure.
GLA and stay safe.
Lancs Hi, thanks for your kind word's :-)
Welcome to the board and enjoy your ride, great friendly board with many long term holders.
Keep safe and good luck.
Have been reading TW page for quite some time now, so thought it's about time I made an account. Much enjoy my evening visit to TW chat, particularly enjoy the contributions of NigeW, TomE and Bamps (I'm sure others are just as insightful!!) Other chats I find are full of obnoxious people, so I tend to stick to reading this as i'm also holding GGP and NCYT, the latter since 30p.
Pleased to see TW starting to bounce back as a bit underwater here.
Best of luck guys.
Yes how things change over the years. It would be good to see a turn around soon so we can get the Special divi back for June Maybe ????? but I doubt it. Maybe back to normal for next year. Never mind main thing is for us all to stay safe and keep our health as that is the key now.
TW nearly 1.30 so holding well.
Yes I read it in construction news to , how times have changed! They must be financially sound.
Looks like it could be a good year all round and a Christmas divi present.
Good morning all
Well never come across this before, they must know something? Or are they scared of losing their subbies? Or are they getting soft .