The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Wow this forum has stagnated almost as much as the SP ?! Can I wake you from your comas ( perfectly understandable by the way ) to ask for thoughts and opinions regarding the update today and if anyone has AGM news ??
Burnt, that amused me. I can't be bothered to work it ok for you, but the bod has bought about 900,000 shares in the past year, at MORE than this sp. As I posted here after the last agm, they can choose to be ebitda positive any time in calendar year 2017. That was ANY time, including January. It is called "Putting money behind the clock". They are waiting for the right time to make a big impact.
andrewdbl Not disputing any of this; just saying it would be nice to see the BOD buy in at this current price to show that they have confidence in both the full year results and the plans for this FY That's it. Personally I am neutral as to the future of this stock. In my view it could go either way depending on this years performance.
Burnt, BOD - actually Hurwitz - said that TUNG will go EBITDA positive on a monthly basis in calendar 17 in the RNS 24 July. "Outlook We successfully delivered against our targets for FY17. Our targets for FY18 trading are as follows: ● Constant currency growth in revenue in excess of 15% (FY171: 12%); ● Gross margin reduction to a minimum of 90% (FY171: 92.8%), reflecting a higher mix of our lower margin Invoice Data Capture sales; and, ● Adjusted operating expenses of less than £40 million (FY171: £40.8 million). This excludes one-off restructuring costs of approximately £2 million expected in FY18. We remain on track to achieve monthly EBITDA breakeven in calendar 2017. (continues...) " So you can see that they may make a small loss in FY18 as they have not promised EBITDA +ve in FY18 (ends 30/04/18), but the numbers will move in the right direction. So I disagree with the thought that this stock is doomed On the other hand, I see no reason for it to be zooming up any time soon. TUNG is making a loss and so all things being equal, absent events, the price should drift down. There will be (imho) 2 events that will change this 1 EBITDA +ve announcement - promised this year 2 Financial forecast from tung that FY 19 will make a _real_ profit - I live in hope (disclaimer - a long suffering long)
Be nice to see one or more of the BOD make a substantial purchase to demonstrate belief that the results were positive and they have belief in the company to deliver +EBITDA this FY
Shortsupply. "Just sold out on this week's rise. Now shorting all the way down! " Nothing wrong with talking your own book. You shorters make the sp lower for us investors. I'm still buying, so go knock yourselves out. Xx
Short positions are negligible at the moment. The price is low because investors have seen through the BS and most have now took their rose tinted glasses off. The miracle money machine Mr Truell promised never materialised and will never materialise. Reality is they've burnt over £100M and ended up with revenues slightly above where the OB10 trajectory would have naturally carried on to. Probably solely down to the price increases rather than any ROI on the 100 big ones of our money that have quite literally been burnt. Turned a company that was running with a small loss into a hugely loss making company and saddled it with a portfolio of services to maintain that no one is buying - aside from the original core e-Invoicing service. They are out of ideas, soon to be out of cash and if you believe Glassdoor, out of the game. Very soon the shorters will be back in force.
BPSF, they INCREASED prices, as per the last several updates. ET had different software, on different platforms, with different functionality and different service level agreements. All changed now. That is one reason they no longer need the spectrum of legacy expertise. Anyway, enough from me. I'm happy to let the shorters get on with their excellent work. I'm still accumulating. ATB
Standard contracts, surely that's a pricing strategy isn't it? Wasn't this one of Mr Truell's initiatives because there were too many bespoke offers? Makes sense if they dropped pricing it would drive an increase. I knew they were working on the platform but didn't know it had been delivered. The glassdoorers are clearly wrong. Re-writing a platform isn't that hard but implementing it in a frictionless way (tungsten buzz word) is a real challenge, especially when you're potentially impacting so many customers. I can't believe they've not been shouting about it, given the tech direction and delivery has been having such bad press. But, I see that will help with costs and efficiency. Not sure the tangible benefits to suppliers though or why it would result in such an increase in new customers.
BPSF "What Tungsten is clearly doing is streamlining and moving a lot of their infrastructure to more cost effective cloud based providers. That's entirely sensible but what I don't see is this new tech that has caused this ramp up." You didn't know that the whole platform has been re-written to be cloud-native and standard for all contracts?
BS76 You stated the new suppliers were because of the new technology. I simply asked what this was as you seem to know more about it than I do. What Tungsten is clearly doing is streamlining and moving a lot of their infrastructure to more cost effective cloud based providers. That's entirely sensible but what I don't see is this new tech that has caused this ramp up. So, in answer to your question I don't know but I'd like to find out......hence why I asked! The negativity is because so much is questionable it really does make you lean more towards Shortsupply and the smoke and mirror theory. For example, take the explanation of the supplier base from the report: "251,000 suppliers using Tungsten Network for a combination of delivering invoices to their customers, tracking the status of their invoices and having their invoices digitised using our Invoice Data Capture product". Invoice status is a free service. Maybe the new tech you are talking about is the Invoice Data Capture product but this doesn't involve the suppliers directly nor generate supplier revenue. Both can increase supplier numbers and both distort the perception of growth. On the buyer side you quoted 10 buyers. However, only 5 were e-invoicing so that is actually a poor return when you are looking at the e-invoicing business. You and K3VMC are super positive. You read the numbers and see the positives. For others, well we've been burnt and there isn't enough information to remove the doubt.
Interesting debate. Firstly, Glassdoor is a load of moaning staff. However, ignore 90% of it and there is some very interesting things coming out in the wash. Company becoming a laggard, being smashed by competitors, flaky IT and no one to fix it, market conflicting information like the Salesforce story etc. Difference between Apple and co is they are wildly successful, every new product/service is a smash hit and they're profitable. TUNG is none of the above. Incidentally, Apple care massively about Glassdoor, especially since the the scandals at Foxconn. Anything that effects their brand or them attracting talent is a top priority. Its simple. The best employers attract the best employees. TUNG is bottom of the Glassdoor league to its competitors, by a country mile. I also find the network growth very opaque. If they've added almost 25% again of their network, have the transactions and supplier revenue increased by the same? I said it before, its all very smoke and mirrors and inconsistent reporting on this side of the business. TUNG should report more like Facebook. They have login at least once a week users as their key metric. In TUNG's case it should probably be every month or couple of months. Aside from revenue, everything else is almost academic on that side of the business. Though, given the level of visibility it will give, I know we'll never see that stat. The whole EBITDA is comedy. There isn't a loss making subscription company that couldn't make that statement. BS76 you need to recheck the IPO submission documents. It was £18M rev but only £2M loss and narrowing. The £35M loss was the first year of TUNG. They've spent £100M in the last 3 years to increase revenue by average of £8M pa over 3 years. Not exactly a stellar performance from the new management. And what has TUNG got to show for it now?
BPSF, I can't help it if you don't want to understand. I have quoted facts/numbers and you don't want to believe the numbers? If you don't like this company and don't trust the current management- why bother posting message's here? I hope you have better things to do If nothing has been delivered in IT, how come Tung is able to enrol 38k suppliers in 6 months. OB10 was only able to add 168k in 13 years and then after takeover- Tung was able to add 45k in 3 years which was better than OB10 management but not great. Rick has turned around in his 2 years tenure which is now showing progress. OB10 guys has left big mess with the buyer contract's which current management is sorting out. 50% of existing buyers has already agreed for 45-55% increase and remaining might as well as they come to renewal in their 3 year contract. It's good OB10 guys are leaving because they might be expert in e-invoicing but had no business sense. When Tung took over OB10 three years back, revenue was 18m and expenses were over 35m. OB10 guys were lucky to fool Ed Truell. Now revenue is 31.3m (FY17) with outlook of 15% increase in FY18. You keep on asking stupid questions- "How many of their suppliers are actually transacting"? it's all in their half yearly and full year reports. It's very easy to find out the revenue from supplier's with break down bewwen web and integrated suppliers. And similarly nothing is hidden about the fees charged to workflow and e-invoicing buyer.
BS76 What exactly has Tungsten implemented to help increase the number of suppliers on the network? I'd love to know because it can't be the additional services because they aren't delivering. As for the IT, I've not heard of anything that has been delivered. Obviously we have to be weary of GlassDoor or any comment from a former employee but when they are saying they've not even implemented Sales force after 2 years, I see that as a warning sign. IT investment was one of they key areas to Mr Williams' EBITDA claim yet they have a stream of contractors........doesn't sound like a business in control of their delivery or their cash burn. As for growth, I never just believe what is being said, you have to dig deeper. The problem with their supplier growth is that it is hidden in mystery and has been for as long as I can remember. Others have pointed out the short comings in their reporting. It raises a lot of questions and they are never answered. How many of their suppliers are actually transacting? How many have actually paid money to Tungsten in the last 12 months? How many have true recurring revenues rather than front loaded up fees? In fact, they do the same with their Buyers too. A long time ago someone highlighted the difference between a workflow buyer and a true e-invoicing buyer. The revenue difference is massive but then so is the nature of the Buyer deal and how many invoices would potentially go through Tungsten. So just reporting X buyers doesn't cut it for me. I need to know more to invest. K3VMC India does have potential, but then so does Mexico and Brazil....how well have Tungsten done there? They've long been promoting strong compliance as a USP and that's fair. But was that down to their compliance staff or their systems? If it is the former than that's a worry as they've lost their 2 experts in this field to competitors. If it is the latter then that's a worry because their experienced IT staff have all left too. If Tungsten are to build something new then there is nothing to suggest a competitor can't do the same. Cost cutting is key to Williams' plan so clearly there will be redundancies, moving or closing of offices etc. I've no problem with that but Hurwitz said they had ageing systems. So their plan seems to be to have new systems, built by people with no e-invoicing experience and run by staff with no e-invoicing experience. The cash is burning and the expertise is draining but you still see the positives. Good luck to you.
BPSF "Glassdoor on its own is largely just a place for former employees to vent frustration. A lot of it is just the view of one person. Does anyone really care one of the exec team having an affair or whether the fussball table has been taken away, of course not, especially HP, Siemens etc." Agreed. "However, if you bother to do some real research you'll learn, for Tungsten, there is some truth in what these people are saying so don't take all of it with a pinch of salt." Redundancies are continuing. Don't expect plaudits from sacked staff. "Mr Williams can go EBITDA anytime he likes........come on, it was funny to start with but the joke is wearing thin now? There is no evidence of this and their "progress" is worse than the loss making OB10 days." There is no evidence that he can choose the month in 2017 that TUNG goes ebitda positive. I merely repeat what I was told at the last agm. That was that TUNG only had to reduce rate of investment and marketing, to turn ebitda positive. What was repeated in the conference call is that it will happen during calendar year 2017. "The competition is mile ahead (many investing in former Tungsten staff) while. What has Tungsten done? How are all those additional services going? What about that IT investment from 2 years ago?" There are five or six competitors. I believe TUNG has the widest and best cross-border compliance of any of the companies, but the biggest competitor, by far, is paper. Cracking down on corruption in India alone could be a massive market in itself, with each state having different fiscal rules. The pie is big enough to share, but TUNG is the company getting stuck into India. As for hiring TUNG staff, where else would former TUNG staff go, but to competitors? That is only natural. As for what other progress has been made, all you have to do is listen to the conference call. You are selling, I'm buying. Not buying aggressively, because I'm doing that elsewhere, but sure to pick up some more. ATB
Current management efforts has improved outlook. One fact is Supplier's which contributes around 55% of total revenue ) ( FY17- £17.4m out of total £31.3m) Increase of supplier's number by 48K from 203k to 251K in FY17 and That's a big jump compare to 22k in FY16. These will give boost to revenue in FY18 Supplier enrolment has only improved because of IT investment and additional services provided to them. Tung was never able to enrol more than 20k in year. From previous last reports - In Jan 2015 (half yearly update till oct 2014) number was 171K and in Dec 2017 (Half yearly update till oct 2016) was 213K, that was 42K in 2 years and in last half year - 38k And since 1st may 2017 - another 9k
Glassdoor on its own is largely just a place for former employees to vent frustration. A lot of it is just the view of one person. Does anyone really care one of the exec team having an affair or whether the fussball table has been taken away, of course not, especially HP, Siemens etc. However, if you bother to do some real research you'll learn, for Tungsten, there is some truth in what these people are saying so don't take all of it with a pinch of salt. Mr Williams can go EBITDA anytime he likes........come on, it was funny to start with but the joke is wearing thin now? There is no evidence of this and their "progress" is worse than the loss making OB10 days. The competition is mile ahead (many investing in former Tungsten staff) while. What has Tungsten done? How are all those additional services going? What about that IT investment from 2 years ago?
Canaccord SP Target now at 92.00 as of today Seems conservative.
Fees has been increased only for 40% of the buyers. It still have to increase for remaining one's as their contract comes for renewal. 10 new buyers added last year at increased fee which will fully account in this year. Around 50-55% of tungsten revenue is from supplier and they have increased from 203k to 251k in last year. Increase of 20%
Apple doesn't care about glassdoor, neither does Siemens, or HP. Rock on! David Williams can flick the switch and go EBITDA positive, any time he likes. Cash flow positive not far behind. ATB
Theme is far too consistent to be a couple of disgruntled employees. Just sold out on this week's rise. Now shorting all the way down! No good news from the plethora of new products launched over the last few years, APU. Existing customers squeezed 60% over the last 12 months falsely giving the impression of growth. No one left to squeeze this year and no new customers to speak of. It's all down hill from here!
The target is around 120 in the near term if break and hold above mid 70's Adding to my position. Disappointed by the management of this company though. They lack lustre to date. Happy to be proved wrong though.
found on the 200 MA, if you can believe google finance, which has been on the blink but appears to be fixed. Can this finally hold above 70p? 70 is my average so tempting to free up the cash, but maybe I should ride my 'winner' if it gets there. Wait and hope.
Biggish trade this morning but not done much for share price! 2017-06-21 11:38:30 65.00 500,000 Buy 63.25 65.00
Please to see the bounce back today after a bad day yesterday.. gives me confidence that this has further to go, or a least is resilient at this price. GLA.