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Germany was worst-performing major economy last year (Financial Times)
https://www.ft.com/content/792a1a09-701c-4c9d-aa77-0d9575d5bda9
German is doing pretty bad Savage, no cheap Russian Gas, shutting down Nuclear plants, net zero costs, emission demands on the cars they produce is hurting their own industry, how many Hyundai's and kia's do you see on the road?, China are becoming more patriotic buying their own goods and not phones (apple), cars (bmw/audi/vw) , talent from other countries don't want to work in Germany they get less people than the UK.
We don't have much to be proud of though, so many people are talking about a massive recession coming and putting your money in Gold, it won't just be the UK if they are correct.
@Savage I do agree with your point re; UK being the sickman of Europe as a result of all the challenges of Brexit (and god awful government)...absolute nightmare.......... however I do think your note is slightly disingenuous on mortgage arrears? The value is increasing as expected (as debt builds), however new arrears (individual cases) have decreased QonQ, I work for a prominent bank and our forecasts are looking positive when we factor in interest rate cuts (BOE will reduce shortly (especially) as a result of wage growth report this morning) and see no big issues with delinquency going forward. Good luck all holders
Absolutely, news of UK mortgage arrears rising 50% year-on-year landed in a BoE report this morning too. Renters under significant pressure from the sustained high rents, utility bills, council tax + fiscal drag on PAYE incomes. The first thing stressed households cut is leisure & travel... lots of activity will already be pre-booked for Summer 24... However, as that drops away fast though there's bound to be panic. BoE does not look as though it can come to the rescue because sadly UK is again the sick person of Europe and Brits will need to accept the economy has been brought to breaking point by this current Government.
Still not holding then?
Pretty clear now that UK PLC is in major trouble, the huge revenues these past 2yrs, off the back of high/elevated inflation, will begin to retreat once spring comes to close. Forward bookings for summer 2024 will keep the travel sector and TUI buoyant for now... however, major trouble appears to be brewing for beyond then as the growing debt burden and accumulated drag from high interest rates really starts to bite. There's yet any proof the recent cumulative 0.5% GDP contraction has come to a close and the uptick in unemployment could begin to be a trend rather than a blip.
Well unfortunately we are not off to a good start this week with the share price down by 1.5% so far today
I think we all need to close our eyes and do other trades until mid June when we should know a lot more about what will happen to our shares come delisting time
I would like to see SP above 6 this week but if I see 5.50 I will be going back in for some beer money.
Hey Mike
Indeed, have been adding and trimming and far too many so my trim is £6 from 517 528 534 adds.
The core lowering is my game with TUI atm, the Morg Stan upgrade was hoping for a breakout. Fri recovery off lows when futures were falling seemed positive and with a fair wind this week and US travel Carnival up Fri seems like a good sector to be in.
A fair few travel stocks would be a great lift.
Wonder where this week's bids will come from ?
Hi Mary,
Always like your posts and just as a reminder, the figure to enable a break out is above £6.30, which was the highest SP achieved since the RI last March. Would be great to see for sure and let's see...........
Of course, another great upgrade by an analyst or two, would fire rocket the SP too
GLA
Momentum abd breaking out through top of the range
Yes you are right MJG22 off to Cyprus on 16th for 2 weeks with TUI so all shareholders will benefit.
Yes I agree with you STILLE nice to hear that people are making money dealing in TUI .
and hopefully spending it with TUI.
Stille, you are obviously a very generous guy - all posts welcome. Except if everyone who made £1K posted their triump, there would be no space left for triumph.
Besides, Robert was so thrilled to get out at £5.52 - you have to wonder how he would feel if he had hung on for a few more hours and cashed out at £5.90 - he could have afforded at least 2 holidays.
Point is, markets are swings and roundabout - celebrating your tiny right guess while other are nursing wounds is no help. So instead of welcoming all posts, why not welcome posts that contribute to the wellbeing of all?
Hi Robert
Getting your holiday money sorted is very good news. 👏
All sorts of posters and all sorts of targets -all legit, well done :)
Badgernator.
I also have always thought no reason not to be returning to a pre-covid MC. The problem I have is that getting to understand what the precovid MC actually was is a problem unless you were invested at that time maybe as back plotted price graphs after rights issued are nonsense.
Does anyone know what the peak MC was pre 2020 and the price/no's of shares in issue at the time?
Nearly there got close to 19700 today.
Well I’ve been a total bore on this forum writing numerous posts saying that I expected TUI’s breakout above the 630 ceiling to coincide with the FTSE250 finally breaking out from its bearish trend. Moment of truth for my theory — if the FTSE250 gets well and truly above 19720, which could be imminent, that’s my trigger for TUI.
Hi swazers,
Many thanks for posting, although I'll be honest - I don't understand these charts - I wish I did!
Do you have any 'words' you can share or indeed any other chart readers out there to help explain what this is telling us?
Genuinely interested and best
#TUI Looks perky, IMO https://x.com/SwazersC/status/1765668170293969216?s=20 https://www.tradingview.com/x/HG5g98D4/
Looking strong after a 9% rise yesterday.
Sorry talkinboutWillis English is my 5th Language, I still get muddled sometimes.
TUI are looking for their EBIT to rise to 7-10% in the medium term, I guess they are looking at 2025 onwards, don't worry they are German it will be ok.
Hi zccax77,
It's a great Q and likely one of the reasons it's SP has struggled somewhat.
So interesting that the MS analyst, as part of his upgrade etc, was stating exactly that - that in his opinion by 2026, margins etc should be back to pre pandemic.
My 'guess' is that in the years since coming out of the pandemic, the company has driven sales at the expense of margins - just look at 2023 results - RECORD sales and improving, but still a way to go profitability etc etc.
What this does though, is it encourages brand loyalty for one and second, in a marketplace renowned for 'value', it enables Tui to claim that crown too.
That's why MS believes that their 'intent' this year of growing profits by 25% is, in their words 'conservative'
Hope this helps and of course only my thinking, but any business coming out of a scenario which nearly killed them off, has to start somewhere and that was generating sales. NOW, they need to show that they can grow profits considerably too and me and assume many here, believe that's on the way
GLA
How can they be so inefficient:
"This would also leave Tui's tour operating Ebit margin at just 2%, well below peers, such as Jet2 at 8% and easyJet Holidays at 11%."
Yes, they would *HAVE* had to tighten it up.