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Hmmm, same old pattern. Up close to 32p and then nothing to take it further. So we start to slip back down. Surely it is not a 'technical' issue. Any explanations?
Good morning everyone. A slow start to the day it seems. SP is nicely poised to break through the resistance level should the demand be there. Eyes on 32p on the bid for the push onwards to 40p.
Hi UrbanFox you come up with some good info, and the figures from your previous (long) post identifies a discrepancy between SP and 'value' of asset. This investor (me) would like to know why there is such a discrepancy, and while I have no interest in dissing the whole tri star narrative the whole dragged out story has gone on for a very long time.
Yes there is some dealmaking going on, but the nuts and bolts end is still far from clear, feed stock, production and sales.
Your Roskill summary gives a good insight into matters. Yes China production is dropping off, but rather than a big empty gap to be filled, Russia and Tajikistan are in there...NOT us!
Also i believe gold by-product was coming to SMPT from Olimpiada...an antimony competitor...."sure you can have the gold-sludge......and btw, here are some antimony customers for you too!!!!
As demonstrated I have zero knowledge of these markets, but given the recent comments from RVS I think a clear understanding of our place in these markets is essential for value to be put back into our shares.
Antimony Global Outlook Strong
In answer to RVS' Statement today: 5. The market for antimony is a separate issue. The world does not expect an additional 20 thousand tons of antimony trioxide.
In fact as a result of a significant shift in supply away from China, due to a stricter regulatory regime and plant closures, demand has not been higher for years. Please review the summary global outlook from Roskill below. The opportunity for to fulfil global supply is right now...
Antimony is mostly consumed in flame ******ants and lead-acid batteries. Together these end-uses account for more than 80% of antimony demand and trends in these two critical applications thus shape market dynamics.
China has by far the largest antimony resources and has, as a result, been the world’s centre for antimony mine and refined production. While China remains the leading primary producer in 2020, declining reserves, market consolidation and strict regulatory inspections across China leading to closures of facilities has caused a significant decrease in Chinese output from over 80% of global production in 2010 to around 50% in 2020. As a result, China has sourced growing volumes of primary antimony units through imports.
Russia and Tajikistan are the next largest producers of antimony after China, both ramping up production in recent years to fill the gap left by China and causing global supply to rebound in 2018 and 2019. In 2018, Russian supply of antimony leapfrogged ahead of Tajikistan with Russian company Polyus, one of world’s leading gold producers, supplying by-product antimony from its Olimpiada mine equivalent to 15% of global mined antimony supply.
The outlook for non-metallurgical antimony demand is positive when considering construction and plastics trends, which suggests demand for flame ******ants will increase. Antimony demand in glass is far smaller but could potentially enjoy high growth rates due to use in photovoltaic panel production. With a modest growth in demand for antimony in non-metallurgical end uses expected, Roskill envisages that demand could start to outstrip current supply levels over the longer term.
We need to take in to account that the relationship between TSTR and the Omani’s is Acrimonious to say the least otherwise why would they call in the arbitrator. This would be the reason for radio silence. The Omani’s will be giving Tri Star as little information as possible especially if they are negotiating some kind of deal.
Hi Harley; gotta be positive my average is 80p, but lucid too. If the deal for supply by Traxis is dead, and a replacement is not yet established that is a worry. Likewise sales.....replace existing sellers, not simple, just discount?. But as you say how do we know what is for real.
So if this is all baloney and fake news let the Co. say out loud all is great, no probs here.
Either it isn't, great or the agenda is for keeping SP low.....another matter.
Critical materials: EU releases updated critical raw materials list
Antimony is top of the list :)
A revised list of 30 critical raw materials has been revealed by the European Commission (EC, September 2020) which now includes bauxite, titanium, lithium, and strontium. Since the first list was drawn up in 2008, it has been revised in 2014, and again in 2017, when an additional seven raw materials were included to take the total to 27. The EC will release its next update in three years’ time.
While the term ‘critical raw materials’ has no universal definition, it is generally used to refer to metals and minerals which are of high economic importance to a particular industry, sector or spatial area and are at risk of supply shortage. Supply risks can be exacerbated by low substitution potential and low recycling rates.
The complete list of 30 critical raw materials for 2020 is shown below.
Heavy rare earth elements
Light rare earth elements
Platinum group metals
I am starting to get that good feeling again, Antimony is on the up again and Gold a bonus.
You say RVS34 could be right. Where is the proof to back up these outlandish claims...
Of course there is plenty of feedstock how do you think they were able to get to 50% capacity and have stated they will be at 100% by end of Q1 2021. They are being offered feedstock all the time and it wouldn't make commercial sense to enter into a long term contract. They will obviously negotiate the best possible deals when required.
BTW I noticed on your last post you had a positive gut feeling about tstr - my gut feeling is we have a few de-rampers here trying to buy cheap shares. Judging by the closing SP it doesn't look like any of the investors wish to give them away.
Afternoon everyone. I'm not so sure Odey would be interested in buying us out at all. He has a huge majority. I think by keeping it as a public company, if the plant is hugely successful he will look at making his money buy selling off his shares in stages on the open market.
Good to see you back Conlon
40-50pence is a start
Who has deeper pockets....could Odey be buying out the minorities,that is us....?
RVS34 could be right. If the plant doesn't have feedstock and management has little clue into how to muscle in on existing antimony market (as well as all the deal making) it would go a long way to explaining why the SP is where it is, and sadly why it is likely to remain that way.
Until of course someone explains very clearly how this bells and whistles plant is going to deliver and invoice all those lovely kilotonnes of produce.
There is a lot more than GLA needed here.
It could be. I hope so. We would need to see 32p on the bid at close to be sure I think. Has it got the legs?
we may hold 40% but we have not got a cent to invest in the plant - badly needed investment, that puts us at a real disadvantage.
my guess and thts being hopeful is 40p to 50 p max.
however there may well be someone else with much deeper pockets sniffing around our stake.....
32pence in sight and has traded there today
Is this the breakout time?
It seems to be rather walking up in slow motion
LOL - surprised to see a de-ramper on this share must require a short.
Indeed, everything was as good as it should be. However.
The enterprise stands today and there are several fundamental reasons for this.
1. Lack of raw materials. The agreement with Traxis was terminated long ago. There are three to five sources of suitable raw materials in the world, and they are now oriented in the other direction.
2. Lack of working capital. We see from the official information about unsuccessful attempts to raise funds.
3. Lack of a team. The last of a series of teams left their posts, there are only a few specialists who can work on such equipment and they are not in Oman.
4. Lack of a common opinion of shareholders on the development of the asset - Oman and London.
5. The market for antimony is a separate issue. The world does not expect an additional 20 thousand tons of antimony trioxide - this requires skill.
Otherwise, yes, all calculations are correct.
But an expensive car without petrol costs no more than scrap.
So much potential- there seems to be plenty of support and momentum but will TSTR be able to close at 32p or above? Incredible amount of resistance it seems and nobody offering any reasons why. Once it passes that level I think it goes straight up to the 40p mark with ease. GLA
Thank you again,it is rare to see such well reasoned analysis which as you say illustrates this is not a speculative propsect,but yet there is deep value regardless of what comes next
The revenue figures show what is possible
Oman wants and needs this
I am a very content holder and will still look to add dips should there be more
A great read UrbanFox, it's reassuring to be reminded of the great asset that we have in tstr.
Good luck to all!
I'm glad you enjoyed the thread and found some value in it. I often carry out these review analysis every so often and really felt that TSTR was being undervalued with everything that we know has been achieved with the SPMP investment. I've been here, with this share for two years now, so long enough to understand some of the frustrations of the longer term PI's. Its always useful in this kind of scenario to look at the big picture and it is very promising indeed. Onwards and upwards.
Urban,what a truly marvelous thread,I have just bought some more
This Thread topic will come in 4 Parts...please commence the thread at #1 of 4. Thanks for following...
Enterprise Valuation Tri-Star
Finally in the last round of capital fund raising for the SPMP Plant in June 2018, Crispin Odey of OAM , was quoted at that time in the press, stating his expectation of a Tri-Star equity value of at least $100 million.
Oman Observer - 23 June 2018
Crispin Odey, Founding Partner of OAM said: “We are delighted to continue to support Tri-Star and SPMP in this final fundraising before the SPMP Project goes into production. Our calculations indicate that, based on the price of this investment in Tri-Star through the Placing, we are investing in SPMP at an implied post-fundraising enterprise value of approximately $200 million, or a post-fundraising equity value of $100 million.
I've tried to be as brief as I can (I know 4 pages !) bearing in mind much of this information is known, but certainly well worth a review to remind ourselves of the World Class Asset at the heart of this investment. Does anyone think that Tri-Star is a speculative investment based on the content of the above? Many of the investors here have certainly behaved as if it were the case in recent months. The Roaster Plant alone is valued at $125 million and Tri-Stars equity share is worth 40% of that. In addition, is Tri-Star reliant on SPMP #drilling# for Gold or Antimony? Of course not, the company has entered into a 5 Year Supply Agreement with Traxys Europe (RNS dated 13.06.17).
Tri-Star's current Market Cap of £26 million ($33.54million) GIVES IT A Current Market ENTERPRISE VALUE OF JUST £13.0 million ($16.8million) after deducting the outstanding SPMP intra-company loan facility ($16.727m). The Tri-Star equity share in the Plant is valued at $50 million and along with the loan, we can conservatively value TSTR's raw business at the figure shown above: £51.7m ($66.7 million). And this takes no account of the added enterprise goodwill value for its share of the future revenues and profits from a World Class manufacturing Plant.
Good luck to all.
4. Company Valuation SPMP
There are several methodologies used in valuing a company, using various accounting metrics, such as EBITA, DCF and Price Earnings ratios, but unfortunately we have no detailed financial accounts to work with. Therefore we can only used forecast sales revenue, since those figures have been publicly stated by the company as used above.
Company Valuation based on Sales revenue Multiples
1. SPMP Valuation based on 3 X Annual Revenues : $640,350,000
2. SPMP Valuation based on 5 X Annual Revenues : $1,067,250,000
5. Potential Valuation Tri-Star
1. Tri-Star Valuation based on 40% of : $640,350,000 = $256,140,000
2. Tri-Star Valuation based on 40% of : $1,067,250,000 = $426,900,000
These valuations are based on Forecast sales revenues which have not been achieved yet, so they really point to the future valuation of both companies.
6. True Current Valuation of Tri-Star
If we were to take all the factors into account that we are aware of then we can put these elements together to arrive at a closer TRUE valuation.
Completed manufacturing plant, Dual roaster built to EU & US Environmental Standards and the only one of its kind outside of China
Minimum Valuation $125,000,000
Tri-Star Share 40%: $50,000,000
Loan Facility Tri-Star to SPMP: $16,727,000 (from Audited accounts 31.12.18)
TRI-STAR Minimum Valuation: $66,727,000 (£51.7m)
Based on 98,168,968 shares in circulation
SHARE PRICE equivalent is: 67.9c or 52.7p
We could use the valuation figures above and being very conservative simply halve the numbers above, therefore taking the lowest valuation:
SPMP Valuation $640,350,000
Deduct balance sheet Debt: $75,000,000 (SPMP Debt $75m as per Tri-Star RNS dated 03.01.20 )
Deduct EXPECTED NEW Loan: $60,000,000
Gives an SPMP valuation of: $505,350,000
Tri-Star Valuation at 40% of SPMP: $202,140,000
The Manufacturing Plant value is already included in this figure, but the outstanding loan figure is not, so add back in the loan of $16,727,000
NEW Tri-Star Valuation is: $218,867,000
SHARE PRICE equivalent is: $2.23c or £1.72p
£1 = $1.29 19/09/20
Tri-Star. Undervalued. Significant Upside Potential.
3. Production capacity and Revenues
Operating at full capacity, SPMP will produce 20,000 tonnes of Antimony (metal and trioxide) and 50,000 ounces of Gold per annum. This represents a significant 15 per cent of average annual world Antimony production, positioning Oman as a major global producer of this strategic minor metal that is used in many applications, including fire ******ancy and electric vehicle batteries.
Reviewing this Statement we can ascertain
Annual Production of 20,000 tonnes of Antimony would achieve future revenues of $116 million based o the 2020 average $ price of $5840 per metric tonne.
Antimony Prices - United States Antimony Corporation
At full production SPMP should be generating revenues of $9.6 million per month in sales of Antimony alone.
The RNS Announcement dated 13th May 2020 (by Tri-Star) and announced in the Oman Observer, confirmed that SPMP had sold and shipped 60 tonnes of Metal ingots.
In addition the announcement of the same date 13th May 2020, also stated in clear terms, that the plant would reach production capacity of 50% by the end of Q2 and the RNS dated 24th June 2020, stated that the remedial works for the plant (including a gas cooling system) was largely complete.
100% Production capacity is expected to be reached at the end of Q1 2021.
UK Gold Price | Price of Gold in the UK | BullionVault
A by-product of Antimony production is Gold Dore and forecast production estimates by SPMP is 50,000 ounces per annum. This equates to annual Gold revenues of $97.4 million, based on recent gold spot prices at near record highs of $1949/Ounce.
Therefore we can conclude that the SPMP Mining Plant should achieve future Annual Re
Gold Dore: $97,450,000
TOTAL Potential Annual REVENUE: $213,450,000
This analysis sits reasonably well with the publicly announced forecast in 2018 when the price of Antimony was 25% higher.
Oman Observer, June 18 2018. An antimony roaster backed by Oman Investment Fund (OIF), a sovereign wealth fund of the Sultanate of Oman, has projected annual revenues of around $245 million from sales of antimony products and gold ingots when production ramps up by next year. Strategic & Precious Metal Processing LLC (SPMP), an Omani company which is 40 per cent owned by OIF, is close to completing construction work on its strategically important project — billed as the first antimony roaster to be built anywhere in the world outside of China for the last 30 years — at a site in the Sohar Freezone.