The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Phew! It appears the huge drop today was a Google finance error: I checked in to see this:
GBX 328.00
47.44%
-296.00 Today
TSTL
but on checking other sites, it's clearly an error. Quite terrifying to see though. Bad, bad Googledog.
Why the 50% drop?
Reading the market is pretty easy for most of the time though the difficulty comes in choosing the mix of holdings for the outcome that is likely to pan out.
Back in November, it was clear that a viable vaccine, once rolled out will be transformational in returning our drab lives to normal not just in UK but the world over. This was the trigger for piling into bombed out sectors and strengthening those holdings that are closely associated with health but whose revenue had been impaired through clinical priority.
The consequence is that until there is published financial statement, there is nervousness, not from investors but from those making a market. For a MM to themselves have their business return as usual, they need to rebalance their books too. And they are ONLY interested in volume for churn. So, although falls and rises are usually explained with news or dealing pressure, sometimes a MM needs to start the ball rolling. Am unexplained movement in the share price can do this.
If my hunch is correct, we might see a discernible change in daily volume over the next few days and weeks
skittled this afternoon. A 6% drop is a but severe but hey ho. Hopefully it will recover soon but good news in that I can freinvest my divi at the end of the month at a cheaper price per share.
I remember you on ADVFN Erogenous. Loved the name haha. You do need athick skin alraight. Never take them too seriously myself. Got a further boost here as it moves to 660/680. Happy days.
Fallingknife1 - I have a substantial portfolio with equities, Investment Trusts and Gilts and options all in the mix and although the bulk are quoted in London, many are quoted on the NASDAQ, Frankfurt, Paris and Tokyo exchanges. My concern at the moment is building up a discretionary trust that was created in 2015 to mitigate IHT that our prudence, hard work and investment has built. At the same time, we have yet to inherit from our parents and need sufficient liquidity and resilience should their health deteriorate and require care.
Within the sector of healthcare, Tristel is a largish componant in portfolio at 3.02% but other interesting holdings include Illumina, Thermo Fisher and Elekta which is a Swedish Company.
Probably the worst investment decision was Cenes (I used to contribute on ii as The Troglodyte) followed by Graphene Nanochem (I also contributed on ADVFN as Erogenous Jones). I was banned from the latter when my accusation of being stalked and the subject of cyber bullying was not taken seriously. My complaint was upheld but I was banned from their platform - bit harsh after 19 years as a paying customer, but no biggie really. Hence my "handle".
As for selling at the top.... well, I am a bit old fashioned and follow the advice my father gave me , to always leave something for the next man.
Yes Alas it has been a good share for me too having first got in and 40 and 43p. It is regarded as toppy at 700p but no doubt we will break through it ast some point. It went ex divi yesterday with no damage to the SP so it is extra pleasing to see today add even more to the SP. Not managed myself to call the top very often except with Halifax, Royal Mail, Churchill China while having many I wish I had sold in hindsight . You got any other plays? I like Destiny Pharma and Science Group myself and PXC as a copper play. Waiting for 700p here.
Well, the share price is having an assault on your resistance point, though it seems to me in my interpretation of the charts that the share price is in a defined trend that has been gradually rising for the last 2 years. On the assumption that momentum continues, I see no reason why the share price should fall below its 50 day moving average - and for me, it is more important to run profits than to worry about resistance points.
Should the case to invest in TSTL change so that it is no longer attractive (to me), then I will sell. Of course, should my own circumstances change and I needed to raise cash then MY priority is to dispose of holdings that have turgid performance and TSTL might be included, though very low down the pecking order. More likely I would dispose of any volatile holdings first. Mind you, I have never discovered the perfect time to buy or sell, except with hindsight. In over 40 years in building my portfolio, I have on 3 occasions bought at the very bottom and have yet to sell at peak
with a noarrow spread of 639/644.5p . I think the MM'S are happy to tkae the margin and some serious buying is required to nudge this past 650p ask. AS Covid abates and the US finally comes into play we could see 700p again. I am sure India is doing very well and another good string to Tristel's bow. Fortunately it is only a small part of Tstl's trade but the blockage in the Suez canal is not good news for India's trade as it curtails key supplies and raises shipping costs. Worth watching for any India related stocks.
My suspicion for the rise is that the NHS has regained control of Covid 19, not only because treatments are well known but because of the fantastic job that has been done in rolling out vaccines. The consequence is that this has freed up resource so that routine work can re-commence. Appointments are being made (beginning in April) to discuss elective surgery for non-urgent cases.
in terms of the recent SP fall. Don't know why TSTL is all the the today but as my largest holding I am jolly pleased about it. I would like to see 700p revisited. My upcoming divi is being reinvested as usual.
to fund option buying and tax has cleared an overhang it seems. I can;t help feeling these frequent sales cause a drag on the SP. LuRkers may just see the headline sale of 560p and not understand that sales by TSTL directors are not prospect or performance related.
Mid price 602p so a recovery possibly on the way. It will be walked up for the divi reinvestment as has always happened. The fall is correcting itself to a small extent.
Although determination of trades as Buys or Sells can be wildly inaccurate, you have to wonder what happened with Tristel today.
Sells vastly outnumbered buys, yet at times this afternoon it wasn't possible to buy even relatively small quantities through AJB, and the SP held up well.
The sell off or mark down if you like has petered out and we are now tickling 600p. I would not be surprised to see 630 to 650p reclaimed.
By 'dodgy' forecasting I refer to their using just two broker forecasts for the first two years and then their own DIMINISHING yearly forecasts for the next ten. Why on earth they think Tristel is going off the boil year after year beats me. Putting in more likely figures results in a much higher valuation than theirs. If you use wall st at all do check how they made their cash flow forecasts every time - and feel free to disagree!
The website simply wall st uses a dodgy way of forecasting future cash flows which results in it undervaluing shares, particularly Tristel. Its method has been taken up by other websites, copying its forecasts and being wrong as well. Sooner or later folks will wake up to this and ignore their predictions. That's my prediction anyway!
Hi SJDC, I think the SP has got toppy on a p/e basis. I sold £500 worth the the penultimate results and bought back even higher. Very tricky play. Agree with your comments. I reckon this will rocket when USA approval finally comes about so it is worth picking prices to trigger buying no matter the fall. I have 525p ands 450p pencilled in but don't think I will see it. My divi is going straight back in and it always seems to rise into that payday and subsequent reinvestment. Staying the course.
This frequently happens: a rise in the weeks beforehand, then a little profit taking of the froth on top (I sold some at 670, couldn't resist, but then bought in again at 610). And then slow weakening following reasonably strong results. I think some people get a bit bored and look for excitement elsewhere if they see there is momentum downhill. I'm in for the long haul though. A solid company, no debt, generating sales despite the pandemic, in an area of the market that's hardly going to fall out of favour, what's more with a market leading product that's about to go global. Can't see any serious long term downside. Just got to edit out these irrational waves from the emotional journey! Note to self: Don't try to second guess the market, it worked this time but generally it's roulette. Better to back a solid horse for the long term despite the odd trip up! 'Scuse the poetic language and mixed metaphors ...
What is not to like about interim result and forward looking news?
Hi all. In light of the interim report today, here is an article analysing recent performance and the investment case. https://www.thetwentiestrader.com/post/tristel-an-infectious-premium
Reading the results and sold. Nothing to justify a 10% drop last week. Will be looking to buy more if weakness continues.
Whether there is news or not today or next week, momentum suggests that the trend will continue. Additionally, hygiene whether in healthcare or other sector for that matter, is in close focus so its product lineup and sales should be in high demand. This should translate to, at worst, stable income but possibly increased margin. My hunch is on a lift in both margin and revenue.
News, of course will bring all investors up to date financially and we can make adjustments to our holdings with the same information.
Ah fair enough Man98. I thought that was it. No such thing as an experienced beginner. If you click on the Calendar you will get the financial diary. Even better is to check through old RNS's and you will see roughly when they issue news. Maybe put it in your own calendar.
I’m a novice lol