London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Surprised do we know that’s their reason for selling?
Hi battersafish, re pe, simply stating that one of the top fund managers states pe is not a guide for expenive or cheap, as per the examples, I would guess he has that view based on managing funds and picking stocks....re Kinder they are indeed selling down and clearly a brake on the sp, I would imagine most investors would have expected this on the basis of current mcap (as I'm sure most will appreciate once below the 100m and 50m quid mcap levels they (ii's) have rules to follow and selling their holdings is one of them, equally they can buy back again once above etc.)
Well one can always make the argument that black is white and a low pe indicates expensive and high cheap lol. Pe is an extremely useful tool. Block at 100 per screams it’s expensive. Maybe Surprise me and explain how it is not. Anyways I see Kinder……a us company is dumping Think…
Hi Arch , you make a popular point re pe, however, mkts are not as simple as that imo or the likes of investments in Boo, Asos etc with low pe would be rising and not sinking consitenty for over a year or two (the mkt clearly does not recognise low pe ! ) .....interest rate rises appear to be somewhat over cooked by mkts are they are still at historically low levels and 0.5 or 0.25% rises should be taken in most companies stride, particularly the large global players...as ever mkts go to extreems at times before finding the middle ground.... invested holders of TSL have a clear value gap to 60p+ on current figures and IF Square/Block rises from it's own lows currently and it forges ahead with it's global plans there is a decent likelyhood of it's sp rising too.
Block does appear to have ambitious plans to serve both retail and wholesale markets and are only now just positioning themselves ...interesting times ahead, there is always a risk things could go a bit lower, however, there is also risk from these lows that things could go markedly higher ;-)
Interesting comment from Terry in the Fundsmith annual report on P/E '..despite the rather sloppy shorthand used by many commentators highly rated P/E does not equate to expensive any more than lowly rated equates to cheap'...
Down again to 33p!!!
This dog lost 65% of its value in last 6 months and 40% in one month!
Thinksmart are now a holding trust company , discount to Nav is volatile and hence share price.
we could be half this price if the main company gets pressure to see massive upside and why its a gamble now.
We did not need to sell , that's the point and we had a valuation at point of sale valuation.
Guys don’t lose sight of the fact that Block is still trading at an extreme PE of 100.
I know bears rarely get listed to on these boards (as I’m sure I wasn’t when I pointed out the PE of 140 a few weeks ago) but at the end of the day we’re all in this together.
Companies on high PEs are particularly vulnerable in the face of expected interest rate rises. This is because their valuations are based heavily on expectations of FUTURE cash flows. Higher interest rates increase the discount factor applied to these future cash flows, so the negative impact on high multiple shares is compounded.
I think this helps explain what’s happening here, along with other companies trading on big multiples
I cant see any reason for the company to want to increase the share price. With 30% privately held, I just cant see a reason why the share price would matter to TSL. Hopefully at some point, we get some clarification on the way ahead, but I expect they dont know currently, as Block trading at such a lower price.
Discount to NAV typical of this sort of co. Also, consider directors pay which could take a substantial slab of assets.
Would make sense
Market is only giving it £40m value, yet the holding in Block is currently worth 618,750 x $128 = $79.2m USD, converted to GBP ~58.56m
They already have £7 cash in the bank, so current cash equivalents of £65m, or approx. 65% higher than our current share price (~62p per share) so they could easily sell some shares and do a dividend IF the market keeps them under 40p
Block has rallied 27% since the 52 week low on Friday. Closing tonight at near 128. No idea what TSL will do....pay a 5p divi maybe?
Block (NYSE: SQ) stock -- the fintech giant that used to be known as Square and that still trades under Square's ticker symbol -- has notched a tidy 4.7% gain as of noon ET Tuesday. In the first bit of news, Block announced after close of trading yesterday that it has completed its acquisition of buy now, pay later (BNPL) company Afterpay and also launched Square's "first integration with Afterpay" functionality, such that "sellers using Square Online for e-commerce in the United States and Australia" can now offer buyers the ability to buy now and pay in installments. In making its announcement, Block quoted one of its customers praising its success using Afterpay, exulting that "our purchases are nearly 20% larger when shoppers use Afterpay" -- a trend that, if it holds true across other users, should provide a revenue boost not only to Block's customers but to Block itself as it takes its cut of revenue.
You think they will sell out now they have listed shares? Currently worth £57m GBP at Blocks current SP of $125
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SQ:NYSE?window=5D
Blimey.....Square/Block up +10%... ;-)
Josh is a regular on cnbc, here's his take on current market and 'attitudes'....
https://thereformedbroker.com/2022/01/21/the-rules/
volatile markets, indices jumping 1000pts or more in a day and then reversing, many stocks at lows and going lower etc...sorting out a value play never easy at best of times, so doubly hard now and with wild rides and indiscrimante drops on even profitable, cash rich and growing companies short term price action is always a 'fun' aspect...white knuckle ride currently but it will all settle at some point and we'll be at 20p or 60p+ or higher if Square/Block gets it act/plans together in the next few months
Another 10 pence lost. Block hit another new 52 week low this afternoon and with Apple looking to move into a key part of its business.....they rarely fail. Still a 48 billion mkt cap.
TSL may be a very fair price now and I have taken a few at 35p and will add if it moves towards 30p. It must be at somewhere like the lows now.....but buyers at 70p and below thought that so not gone mad. Still.....35 pence. I think the risk/reward is in my favour at that type of price bearing in mind the company has cash and stock and a listing. 113p to 35p in just weeks. Wow. I have a target of 48 pence or nearly 40 per cent.
Definitely DYOR and make your own decisions here!
Block’s acquisition of Australian-listed fintech stock Afterpay
has depressed the price of Think Smart.
Think Smart (AIM: TSL) has followed the boom and
bust in fintech stocks. We picked up on the story in
a Digest piece in October 2020 at 39p and wrote a longer
Blog article shortly after at 41p. Since then we have had 6p
per share paid out to shareholders and the stock has been
as high as 113p, before a sharp fall last month on the deal
to swap its stake in Clearpay for shares in Afterpay.
There are two reasons behind the weakness in the shares.
The minor one is the fact that the swap terms were not as
favourable as they might have been. The major one has
been the sharp falls in the Afterpay share price related
to the rotation away from high-value growth stocks on
Nasdaq........................Afterpay
has fallen 50% from its high last
February and Block has fallen
over 40% since November as the
market’s mood has shifted.
Turning to the current state of
play, here is how the arithmetic
works:
Afterpay share price: A$66.47 =
£35.17
Think Smart owns 1.65 million
Afterpay = £58.0m
Add Think Smart’s £6.5m cash (held in rump business in
run-off) = £64.5m
Value per share (107 million shares in issue) = 60p
Current Think Smart price = 44p
The share price has come back ca 33% in the last three
weeks since the Afterpay swap was announced. Of this
about 15% would be due to the crystallisation of the
Clearpay stake at the low end of the range, with a further
10% being due to the fall in the Afterpay and Block share
prices.
This implies the discount to fair value has widened, with
Think Smart now trading at ca 25% discount to its asset
value (which we can now measure accurately). This looks
attractive – assuming your view on Block is positive. Think
of it like an investment trust: if Block shares start to recover
then there is the prospect of a performance boost.
This seems to be a good balanced article, from a website devoted to payment technology. They point out that this is nothing new, as mastercard and visa already offer this. Seems a good site:
https://www.pymnts.com/apple/2022/apples-latest-payments-move-may-be-too-little-too-late/
A way to look at ST's tips would be - only ever consider investing in his Bargain Shares of the Year portfolios - as he "owns up" to his duds on there (e.g. Arix 2021, JOG 2019) plus there are regular then and now charts so there's no hiding failures.
If you bought a basket of his Bargain Shares you would have made money I think 8 out of 9 years - and beaten the market by some margin.
Whereas bad tips not in the Bargain Shares portfolio can be (and are) quietly forgotten unless he sees there's some mileage in presenting them again as a turnaround story (like Thinksmart!)
CNBC just reported that Apple are planning to offer merchant payment services from a standard iphone - whereas Block needs a Square payment gadget to process theirs. Block is trading down $6 on the news.
52 Week Low 37.50
52 Week Low Date 26-Jan-2022
Value destruction at the worst , did not need to sell
Pro formula of value was in place , just needed time till options had taken place.
Now we are free fall and can see block as a hidder now as litagration may take place on loses for investor in there main group.
Priced halved and all the good work gone in a bad deal - one word - SMEG ( Smalterie Metallurgiche Emiliane Guastalla )
Trimmed more today. I expect a blood bath later today, due to BTC. I agree with what you have said, and given it has revealed itself to be such a poor decision from TSL, doesn't bode well going forward. I was hopeful Block could find it's floor quickly, but even at distressed prices, a great amount of commentary points out what a poor buy it still is. Oh well. At least everything else has drooped so not quite such a loss. If I sit on the cash for a day or two, ill probably be quid's in.
Thank you. There are a ton of stocks I see today that have halved since I sold or said it was too high....not because I am so smart but because selling is so tough for so many investors who read the rampers and cannot bear to sell. Long experience of the mkt.
Yes I have a freeroll on these. I think the management made a bad mistake here. There was no rush. Much of the profit made has been lost and those who bought at 80p after the rns of 7 december are looking at at big loss with the price now at 40p. Square looks way overvalued to me and The Nasdaq is falling away daily. Look at De La Rue results today.....the problems with staff and product must be replicated everywhere so expect many shocks.
I made my money on TSL by selling a good amount at just over 100p so I am not going to sell what I have left. Maybe something will happen here and to be fair the special divis have been very good. The TSL listing could be kept as a shell after most of the cash has been paid out and that could be worth something in time. "Free" stock is no risk is it? I do see TSL breaking below 30p in time so I am in no rush to buy more even as a trade ...... even at 40p.Each to their own and some have averaged down all the way down ....and now have a huge red position and I just do not see how they will ever get their money back.
BP, you said you have some left in this to run, albeit de-risked from memory. So what's your take, you still happy to hold?
I have read your posts on many other shares, and found you to be spot on (even when others didn't want to hear it), so value your opinion. Like I said, not make or break to me, and if I need the money else where I will take it, but I do think this will recover to at least 60p if Block gets back to $155+