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indeed, excellent and welcome results for Square.....clearly a sum of parts valuation is considerably higher than current price and Sqaure/Block looks set to grow as anticipated. From the current lows it has a potential great deal of upside to make up and is clealry on it's way :-)
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1497109534686560275
117.61 +22.62 (+23.81%)
After hours: 5:25PM EST
Should rally tomorrow as Block beat exp and it was so bombed out...
Reported results are slightly above analysts' expectations but Block's shares are down on after-hours trading.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/square-earnings-top-expectations-but-stock-dips-11645738222?mod=home-page
No doubt Thinksmart will continue to move sideways or go down tomorrow.
There just isnt any rational for investing here. Especially given the discounts elsewhere. Even if block surprise us, who is going to pile in here, when there are companies out there that can be bought for low earnings multiples, that probably have better NAV included.
*Mr Dorsey
Yes down at the start to 82/3 so NAV is now closer to 39p. So TSL at 26p bid is around right until we know where next. I think if they do sell Block investors will get about 15p with the rest being held back for a while to pay off liabilities and tax etc.
Some will punt on results tonight and TSL is a fair way of doing so. Risky of course!
I presume when Thinksmart's BOD decide to sell Block shares down the line, they'd have to wind down the company because there is literally no other purpose for the company to exist as far as I aware except from what was mentioned in the 'Business Update' RNS on 3rd February stating "The Group will continue to service the leases, ensuring the fair treatment of customers, during the orderly wind down and collect out of the portfolio of leases. The lease portfolio purchased has a minimum term gross receivable balance of £1.25m and an average term outstanding of 10 months. ThinkSmart will continue to be entitled to all rental income and revenue from sales of leased equipment following the end of the initial term of the leases, and is managing its cost base accordingly so that its operating business continues to deliver net positive cashflows."
And now with Putin invading Ukraine, Block shares are certainly going to fall. I just hope My Dorsey has some good news for us tonight.
Another thumping loss for Bock tonight....just 87 dollars. So down to about 42p NAV. I guess we will see 25p soon here and we could see below 20p if the results are poor on Thursday.
The problem here is TSL expenses are very high compared to what they are doing....which is nothing much. That will be eating away at the cash pile. Either way the stock is a falling knife and investors may get a lot less than they anticipated.
618,750 Block Shares (@$97) = $60,018,750
$60,018,750 = £44,094,515
Net Cash Position = £6.5m (ST's article on IC: https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/01/06/unravelling-thinksmart-s-share-price-decline/)
£44,094,515 + £6,500,000 = £50,594,515
£50,594,515 / 106,587,814 shares = £0.47/£0.48.
And yet now only trading at £0.275 a share. Block's earnings are out on Thursday night after-hours, hopefully some positive earnings. So we can see this wide discount to NAV close down.
Tier 1 upgrade from Bank of America - suggest the stock is due for ~70% rally
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/11/bank-of-america-upgrades-block-says-struggling-stock-formerly-known-as-square-due-for-70percent-rally.html
Cheers both. I had 2 accounts, ISA made money on TSL - somehow managed to get the day low and day high twice on the volatility around the 50's, but other one SIPP lost money as an an investment. With the SIPP I should have been slower about buying the dip, which I thought was 60p, then 50p then 45p.... LOL - Poor execution on my part, im working on that.
My main issue (now) is this is not a vehicle for share price growth, because the company or BOD do not need a high share price. They own enough to block a takeover, but are not looking to sell there shares. So you sit here, in hope that the underlying asset appreciates (no chance of earnings in the form of dividends from Block), and that one day these guys decide to cash it in, and that they are then fair and reasonable to you. They have hefty options personally in Block, so might not need this money for a long time, expect they are high net worth types any way. Too many if's there, based on recent form, like the sneaky sell out before the crash, negotiating a bum deal, and now not knowing what to do.
Does running a company like TSL, make Ned a good investor? Would Buffet have taken the deal - doubt it. (I honestly think he may have been tucked up by the negotiators for Block/APT here).
At this point, we dont even know if they will wind it down, what if some other enterprise catches their eye, once they miss the limelight. In all honesty I see money appreciating very slowly here, and this could be beaten by some fairly tame FTSE100 shares over the next 12 months. Reading about those leases in RNS, it sounds like this is going to run for at least 12 months.
I recommend looking at some recent 'should I buy shares in Block' videos, there are some very good analytical videos on Youtube, but I did not find a single one, that said it was a buy. A lot said PayPal was a better choice, and again you could invest direct. I was also looking at trading view, which has opinions about the Block chart, last tie I looked most were still short.
Sorry to come here and de ramp so much, not my intention. Iv been honest and said I lost money, and obviously spent a great deal of time researching and thinking about this whilst invested, so just putting it out there, it might be useful to someone. I have bailed from 2 stocks so far in 2022, but accounts are up none the less.
Anyway, hope it works out, but I think that's all you really have until some news. GLA.
I have a lot of sympathy with Dartron here. Near 80 per cent fall and I see no point in having lots of directors. What do they do? What are their plans?
good luck Dartron, I get where you are coming from , for me personally I'll just let TSL play out as once Knider are fully out the large brake will be off and we should see a rise back up to nearer fair value as detailed below and in addition a Block move up will add further...so a bit of patience and I can see a very decent move up from here, I can wait and as you know I have enough 'fingers in other pies' so can wait on TSL ...nasdaq bouncing back up again today and Block rallied 8% so a lot of moving parts and a bit to play out over the next few weeks /months
@Surprised - I sold yesterday. I decided to take the loss (again) here and get my money growing today elsewhere. Too many good stocks around, as you know. I think more likely I can double my money elsewhere, before this hits 64p - and be in full control. I still say check out IQE or BVC as similar priced recovery stocks, both been savaged by Ennismore shorting, but both will recover. 30p to 60p or 40p to 80p is quite do able in a few months elsewhere.
It is just an asset now, no chance of earnings (Dividends from Block), so is it really just a liability. There is a lot of videos about Block stock analyses on Youtube - none of them very flattering.
Might as well have a REIT or something, at least you know where you stand.
Thinksmart have been ****ing dumb IMO.
part copy of latest article 1/2/22.....
there are two reasons behind the weakness in the shares.
The minor one is the fact that the swap terms were not as
favourable as they might have been. The major one has
been the sharp falls in the Afterpay share price related
to the rotation away from high-value growth stocks on
Nasdaq.
Afterpay
has fallen 50% from its high last
February and Block has fallen
over 40% since November as the
market’s mood has shifted.
Turning to the current state of
play, here is how the arithmetic
works:
Afterpay share price: A$66.47 =
£35.17
Think Smart owns 1.65 million
Afterpay = £58.0m
Add Think Smart’s £6.5m cash (held in rump business in
run-off) = £64.5m
Value per share (107 million shares in issue) = 60p
This implies the discount to fair value has widened, with
Think Smart now trading at discount to its asset
value (which we can now measure accurately). This looks
attractive – assuming your view on Block is positive. Think
of it like an investment trust: if Block shares start to recover
then there is the prospect of a performance boost from the
discount narrowing;
excuse spell errors ....
likewise, we all inadvertently simply becam Block holders, unfortunately at the lows...so the choice is sell at the lowest point or await for a recovery, clealry the is additional value in the TSL holding above todays current sp , closer to 60p+ so that's where new holders will see upside
That is irrelevant. If I like their plans, I can buy their shares directly. What extra benefit do shareholders get from holding Thinksmart shares instead of Block/Square other than perhaps saving a couple of quid on overseas dealing charges? This is a genuine question, not trying to be snarky.
maybe , just maybe worth looking into Square's plans ..maybe
Is the point of holding Thinksmart shares now? The reason people invested here was because of their call option with Afterpay which valued TSL at around 160p per share. Now that the directors have decided to gamble that guaranteed cash windfall for shares in Block, as far as I can tell the only reason TSL now exists is so the directors can continue to pick up their paycheck. For investors, we are essentially just paying these guys to hold shares in Block for us. Would it not be cheaper to sell TSL and buy Block? Any ideas welcome because I don't see what the point of this company is now.
Don't think I have ever seen such unnecessary destruction of shareholder value before. Nobody won with this deal and I can't get my head around the fact they thought it would be a good idea.
Not great , markets are usually correct sometimes
That is encouraging. Feb 24 will be key date......Block reports. Hopefully figures won't look like PayPal's.
BLOCKS BIT COIN HOLDING IS UP 17% IN THE LAST 5 DAYS
From Block Q3 Shareholder letter:
In the fourth quarter of 2020 and first quarter of 2021, we invested $50 million and $170 million, respectively, in bitcoin. As an indefinite-lived intangible asset, bitcoin is subject to impairment losses if the fair value of bitcoin decreases below
the carrying value during the assessed period. In the third quarter, we recognized a bitcoin impairment loss of $6 million on our bitcoin investment.
As of September 30, 2021, the fair value of our investment in bitcoin was $352 million based on observable market prices, which is $203 million greater than the carrying value of the investment.
--
Blocks buy in price was about 32k, when it was valued on Sept 30th 2021, BTC was roughly where it is now, 43k.
Happy days!
from here on we are all holders of Square /Block shares....if you feel the pe is a defining aspect it's not a share to hold, if any holders feel that Block will be a major player in the coming months in the sectors they are targetting and envisage a rise in sp from the current lows then it's a hold..no more complicated than that.....all this of course at the discretion of the bod of TSL, who also have a large stake in the same shares so appear allinged with the view of increaed value going forward
you know better than that Battersea :-)