Our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with QuotedData's Edward Marten has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Leas
I take my hat off to you, there's no way I could hold a stock from 2p to 180p without selling.
I look back to some of my purchases around the erm ejection time and keep quiet, long gone the lot of them, sadly.
On a brighter note I felt I had to top up again on TSCO today, I can't help myself.
On a br
Rosewall
My biggest ever return on a share was in the very early 90s. EB was a retailer selling electronic games online. I had no investment experience at all but being the younger generation at the time I saw the potential. The only fundamental I understood was the lowly MC. I took a gamble and loaded up at 0.02p A decade later I sold at £1.80p when the company had morphed itself into Game.
I then made the mistake of investing a proportion of that profit in a high yielding company. HMV at the time fitted the profile of a good safe company that had been on the high street for almost a century.
I managed to get out a week before them going into admin losing 60% of my investment.
I think experience has told me that luck plays a significant role in making money from in this type of investing but agree we can reduce the risk with research.
I am sure in the past you have read articles from journalists who have engaged the services of a monkey and put them head to head with fund managers.
No prize for guessing who came out on top.
leas,
On reflection, I would have to agree with you. As you say, "if they make a profit". Due diligence and research does not remove risk but it does go some way to alleviate it. If I ever invest in a share, even as an in and out trade, I like to do some research. I don't think I have ever gone into a share that I don't understand or would not be happy to hold long term if things go wrong. I learnt my lesson with SXX to keep emotion out of it though.
Tzap
Same pattern as yesterday with large trades being reported after the bell. All red of course and a cruel UT. Question is, are they all sell transactions.
Rosewell
In fairness I think in the past I referred to the sale of the 2 businesses in Asia as a singular sale of assets but not all private investors are as diligent as one another.
You could also say the same with the institutional investor too. I can remember holding a pharma for a number of years and can say without hesitation that the private investor knew more about the business and its journey leading up to a commercial deal.
You are clearly a guy that does his due diligence and that has to be respected but equally an investor who may be a bit more ‘cavalier’ is to be respected if they make a profit.
Leas, Barchid,
I would disagree with one point raised. Any confusion over the special dividend (and consolidation) is down to PIs being too lazy to read the published circular. Posters were referring to the Asia business when it was plural. Posters were saying the Asia businesses were profitable when only one was. Posters were denying that there would be share consolidation. Within the past fortnight, posters were saying that there would share buybacks even though this would mean another GM . Any confusion about the deal is entirely due to the laziness of the PI.
Sainsburys went up after its recent ex special dividend date had passed so I'm hoping it does here too.
Good to see HL promote TSCO as one of their 5 picks for 2021 (extract below):
With almost 3,800 stores in the UK and Ireland, Tesco is a retail titan. But when you’re big, growth becomes a challenge.
Tesco’s answer is online shopping. That footprint puts it in a strong position to capitalise on the long-term digital shift sparked by coronavirus. 25 UK urban fulfilment centres are expected to open in the next three years, and online capacity is set to double to 3.0m delivery slots a week.
This opportunity sits on top of an already thriving store business. The pandemic hasn’t done anything to deflate its dominant market share.
Tesco recently completed a plan to rebuild operating margins, up from 1.8% in 2016 to 4.6% in 2020. The other aspect of the corporate tidy-up includes selling less compelling parts of the business, in Poland and Asia. This doesn’t just provide sturdier foundations, the sale of the Thai and Malaysian business equates to a cool £8.2bn of cash. About £5bn of that will come back to shareholders as a capital return via special dividend.
That brings us to Tesco’s yield. It’s a market-beating 3.9%. That’s higher than it has been for most of the last 5 years. Remember though, no dividend is guaranteed and yields are not a reliable indicator of future income.
An improved pricing proposition is helping Tesco poach customers back from Aldi too. But pricing pressure remains an industry-wide issue. Consumers always want more for less, and the recent sale of Asda raises the possibility of another margin-diluting price war. Coronavirus has also dented margins, including hiring 45,000 extra members of staff at the peak of the crisis (16,000 are now permanent). Don’t expect rocket-fuelled profit this year, operating profits are expected to be 25.3% lower.
Change brings execution risk too, especially as a new CEO was welcomed in October 2020. We’d like Ken Murphy to set out his strategy sooner rather than later.
But when all’s said and done, Tesco’s primed to make the most of the shift to online, while the store businesses keep simmering away. Reliability is something of a rarity in today’s stock markets, and with a PE ratio of 13.7 that makes Tesco stand out.
HL’s non-executive Chair is also a non-executive director at Tesco.
barchid
Fully agree. That said there are still plenty of trading days left before the 11th Feb. I’m sure the company has took advice from the city and this process is what they have determined to be the best way forward for shareholder value.
However, as you point out this has led to investor confusion or certainty private investor confusion who will be hoping for a rise as we approach the GM.
I guess that is when most will sell giving an opportunity to the institutions.
All guess work of course and I will reassess my strategy as things play out.
Fwiw, I think TSCO will be in better shape post Covid and their online sales leaving the rest behind. We also have to remember that Booker will be doing well too as smaller independent shops will be seeing increased footfall. This on top of savings running the Pension Fund does make a strong case for a long term hold.
leas
Agreed.
Hard to think of a UK sector which has the wind in its sails currently as much as supermarkets & TSCO is the clear leader in that place, my suspicion re the price having been slow to start reacting (but now seemingly speeding up) has more to do with SD confusion than anything else, certainly the comments/queries on this board imply that & perhaps institutional investors want to see the dust settle first ? Most of them seem scared of their own shadow at the moment & valuations compared to index could be impaired by a large special divi and price revision, could be easier for them to wait & buy xd, doesn't really make sense but little does these days.
Correct but I certainly wont be rushing back though and that's the point.
They still all 6 of you still buying tho.
Nobody walked or sales were lost
They still all 6 of you still buying tho.
Nobody walked or sales were lost
I looked at the closing sales yesterday and it was difficult to determine whether or not they were sales. The larger ones were all reported late and could have been purchases. Unless you have a 'live time stamp' then the colour of the trade will be determined by the time it was reported to the market.
Cannot see any reason why TSCO cannot better the SBRY update. Sales up 8.6%. From their trading update the second lockdown in November helped them beat expectations. This third lockdown imo will last much longer than the 2 month forecast and would not be surprised to see it continue through to Easter.
Another point of interest in their report was increased sales as Brits remain at home (me included) with an estimated 5m not travelling overseas. All stacking up very nicely for TSCO, only question I suppose , does the current sp reflect market expectations of ours?
(Sharecast News) - Sainsbury's lifted profit forecasts after a booming festive period as Britons treated themselves to champagne and steaks in response to pandemic restrictions on the size of gatherings and online orders hit record levels.
I’m sue Tesco’s Finest range will have benefitted as well.
Morning all. With the trading results and special dividend coming up soon, any reason for the large sells late yesterday? 17:15 4m for example!
Well after selling 4500 at 230 this bounced nicely didn’t it ! I diversified 8 k on Monday into rolls Royce, marks and spencer , glen core , batm, centamin and imperial brands so just about keeping pace but we will see in time if it’s a correct decision.
Meanwhile the latest SAYE matures 1st feb so I’d actin that ASAP as not to miss the special dividend date ( not actually sure how it pans out if you leave it in there .
Could very well see it tick up now as we get nearer the the ex SD date .
A sale is a sale, a dividend is a dividend. Reinvestment of a dividend is still taxable.
Hi Daveh they are now in an equiniti share account not the Tesco one
B&D I reckon £1.87-£2.00 if sp is around £2.50. All depends on market sentiment around the time
If your SAYE shares are still in Equinity then is this deemed as still being in the plan therefore there is not tax to pay when you sell?
MS01
It doesn't matter whether the shares are consolidated before or after the special dividend is issued. It will be before consolidation but it is a moot point. It isn't 51p per share, it is £5 billion divided by the number of shares.
Ms01
There are many scenarios that may play out. You could always top up with the XD cash if you think any correction is overdone. You could always play it safe and sell on any rise that may or may not come as we approach XD.
It all depends on your personal circumstance.
The shares for me are a hold and looking a bit further down the road.
Also any share consolidation should be adjusted accordingly for the dividend going forward but that’s just my opinion. Pretty safe share in these uncertain times that will yield much more than any retail bank.
Mmm...... I was hoping it would hit a close of around the 246 p mark today and then keep rising for the rest of the week in time for the trading up date. I suppose there is still hope ?