London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Has the chainsaw finally run out of petrol :-)
Jaskk,
A couple of points. First, not all of the business in Poland has been sold. Only a part of it has been sold. I kind of find it useful to read what the RNS says rather than opening your mouth and let your belly rumble. The relevant RNS stated
"In addition, the Group has made good progress in selling its remaining Polish property outside of this transaction. Over the past 18 months, the Group has either sold or agreed to sell 22 stores for net proceeds of c.£200m. The Group will continue to seek to realise value from the remaining assets, which include 19 currently trading stores not covered in this transaction."
Secondly, there will be a share consolidation following the Asian deal. That was stated in the circular had you bothered to read it. Following the reduction in NAV post special dividend and pension top up, it will need something like a 5 shares to 3 to get the share price back to the previous levels.
Stop being a ramper and read the RNS and circular, you won't look such an idiot if you do.
The interesting thing about the 1st quarter trading update is that it has group sales of 13,380 compared to 13,978 in the same quarter last year which is circa 4.5% less, despite the fact that both Poland and the Asian figures have bee excluded in the recent figures. Now consider that the sale of the Asian business is roughy 25% of the current market cap and you can see what a great move it is. It is always costly and very difficult breaking into new markets, not to mention exchange rate issues etc. In this climate, sticking to the basics, concentrating at what you do best and strengthening the balance sheet, is always the best option, rather than spreading yourself thin, trying to manage markets that you don't know well enough, with all the local politics it involves.
I never follow the crowd but I agree also. What is more I think without the big disposal the share price might be quite a lot higher. So confused I am.
Jaskk you get my vote
Seen it all before, someone trying to buy in cheaply from the impatient. This a great defensive company with good cashflow, especially worth holding as we head into a severe recession and the potential of a second Covid wave. They have already started reporting financials excluding the Asian business ( as well as the now sold Polish business ) and the dividend is well covered and predicted to grow, which is high in a zero / negative interest rate environment. Patience is key and to ignore the noise ( 5 for 3 shares rubbish etc ). This will re-rate to circa £2.50 plus ( fair value ) when the deal lands and I wouldn't be surprised if there is not a share buy back as well as special dividend.
Ive heard the term giving the tree a shake.Starting to think there trying to chop this one down
Rubbish. Got a short on ?
From experience even in the better circumstances dealing with Thai and Nalaysian bureaucracy can be lengthy
Working on a project for the King of Thailand they once misplaced 2 tonnes of cargo at the airport
Rosewall, apologies I thought you meant from a regulatory body in the UK. Not so sure shareholders will reject it and cannot see employees rejecting it if there is a cash injection to their pension.
I agree that it may fall by more than 50p on XD but like I alluded to earlier the sp may get a boost when and if the Thai regulators allow the sale.
Of course all speculation but uncertainty may be the reason why it keeps falling.
Leas,
The UK hurdle as I see it will be the consolidation that runs alongside the special dividend. If the special dividend goes ahead then, in general expect the share price to fall more than 50p (remember it is £10 billion for the sale but the bulk leaves the company be it dividend or pension contribution). This puts the new share price at a very low level and this will cause the large investment institutions a bit of grief. To head this off, Tesco will consolidate (at what level I don't know - I had it at 5 shares consolidating to 3 shares) and this will cause an amount of grief to PIs and employee shareholders (usually unsophisticated) who may view it as theft and vote against the proposals.
Rosewall, not sure that they will be any UK hurdles. From what little bit of research I have done the Thai regulators will be the one to clear but I can find very little info in relation to mergers and acquisitions that have been rejected by them in the past, so difficult to judge their sentiment.
That said, it is a lot easier to get the 'job done' over there as any obstacle can be readily dealt with. :)
Thank you and happy to see this at 214 hopefully keeps moving up.
Leas
As I understand it there are two regulators, two hurdles to jump before the UK hurdles. The regulators are in Thailand and Malaysia.
I guess that will only be announced after the Thai regulator has given the go ahead to the sale. The city opinion at the time was that Tesco Lotus was good value for shareholders and a hefty cash injection to the pension fund.
As posted previously the uncertainty exists and imo the cause of the sp decline.
I can see a rebound coming if TSCO get the ‘green light’ so patience is required for now. Have to say I’m very tempted today and perhaps buy a tranche when the trend of finishing weak at the close breaks.
ATVB to long term shareholders
There isnt one, still hurdles to jump before the special dividend and the corresponding share consolidation is put to a GM.
When is the ex divi date for the special dividend?