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I think an unfortunate truth is that many people bought the PrimaryBid shares without really knowing or understanding where TRX could be in the future. Their one and only aim is to turn a profit. Many will see 20% profit as time to leave. That's 0.3p and so if the buy price gets that low I will add some shares.
To go negative to the 0.25p would've a great surprise. As has already been muted, a positive RNS from the company could have a good effect on the price.
It is going to be very interesting to see where we are by this Friday.
Certainly not a boring share at the moment, its cost some of us but it's not boring......
Chester.
I don't agree with Barnetpeter: surely those who do agree will sell @.4p and buy them (or more) back later. I don't believe that will be possible. Mattw and I can't both be right, we can't tell who will be, it's like a Rumsfelt known unknown.
You’re referring to the share issue that had to be up scaled due to ‘significant excess demand’? Umm..
Ultimately we are all on the same page and want the stock to go up to reward our investment in the technology. And we deserve that reward. But can I just suggest that in my experience equity markets cause the maximum amount of discomfort to the highest number of investors at any one time. If there’s a consensus of you thinking this stock is going to 0.25 or lower, then it’s very likely to disappoint you.
By the way, if it does go there, I’ll buy a lot more stock and post a “well done, you were right” message on this board.
Greetings all, in my post many of you read and reacted to to word "sell" rather than the point I was trying to make which was that I think I missed an opportunity to make a little money whilst still maintaining my original share holding ( possibly increasing it by using the value gained) by using the placing to my advantaged . To explain
The share price at the time of placing announcement was .975
Allocated 200,000. Purchased at .25 = £500
Act swiftly and sell for say .8 = £1600
Gain = £1100
Buy back 200,000 .4 = £ 800
Net gain = £ 300 available for reinvestment
Several of you are saying that the SP on Admission will be sub .25 so buy might back .35 thus increasing the net gain. No change to Shareholding post Admission.
Hope you don't think that I'm trying to teach granny how to suck eggs
Cheers TOB
Grateful thanks to NHS , carers and all front line facing staff.
I agree with barnetpeter short term this is heading to 0.25 or lower as its approx. 5 new shares for every 1 held.
It makes sense with that much dilution the shares will drift to the placing price.
Barnetpeter: There is no primary overhang from the cash-call as the institutions oversubscribed. The overhang from the Woodford/Link Fund has always been a problem. We will only find out whether Link Fund has subscribed when the new shares are issued and we are informed by RNS. If Link has not subscribed, then their 20% will be heavily diluted and Link may well choose now to sell. If Link has subscribed, they may well jettison their existing shares now. Either way, there may be a distinct downdraft in SP and we would be informed by RNS prior to the accession of the new shares on June 10th. That's going to be worth looking out for.
I don't think that costs of the PrimaryBid purchase are a big issue. My costs were approx one tenth of 1%.
From a personal point of view, TRX is speculative. Speculation is about calibrating a future. Many companies on AIM such as the small oilers, miners and many a small bio-tech/pharma have no revenues. TRX is not in that position. They have approved products in current manufacture and a decent footprint in the USA. Yes, I would criticise the former management for woeful miscalculations which has led to their parlous position with heavy reliance on expensive debt. The current Board has restructured debt, which I believe currently stands at about $2M. With the cash-call, TRX may still be able to call upon the MidCap Tranche 2 and 3, if required.
Thus to me, the cash-call, albeit draconian, has derisked the business for the next 12 to 18 months. Although I accept that routine surgery in the West is constrained by the concentration on Covid-19, the surgeons involved will be putting pressure on their hospitals to facilitate very important procedures that have been delayed. I am encouraged that a Top-10 healthcare company has engaged with TRX very recently. I am encouraged that Jonathan Glenn will be at the helm.
To me, the near-term SP may look like a hazard. I think I can look through that. I am not here to trade. I am sufficiently content with the prospects after taking what I hope is a balanced view. I am a retired medic with a qualification from the Royal College of Surgeons and I rest my case. I will be sad if things turn sour because I very much want a decent British bio-tech to do well, particularly as its products are innovative and many patients will benefit.
Obviously all in my opinion only. Please DYOR. Stay safe and well in these very difficult times.
The new shares will swamp existing and if there is a big overhang I see a heavy fall here. Many saw the huge discount and thought it was free money but I suspect if it is it won’t be much after costs etc are taken into account. Trx has been a complete disaster for investors and this is probably the last chance the company will be able to raise cash like this. If it comes back to the mkt it will have to be at 0.1 or something. This huge overhang is going to take a long time to sort and they better use it wisely or this is going to go the way of a number of other pb offerings...like FRR who raised twice ...down the pan.
Quick buck? At this rate the price is going to fall below 0.25 by the time the new shares are issued. I could easily see this at 0.22 bid by that time.
TheOldBee- Always appreciate your very gentlemanly posts. No, I didn't sell any of my existing shares. I was lucky enough to buy quite a few with PrimaryBid and I have just confirmed with my platform, Lloyds, that the shares will be transferred to me on Wednesday, June 10th. And, no, I will not be selling any of those for a quick buck.
There have to be reasons why the Board executed the cash-call in the manner they did. Could it be that the Board wished to dilute the prior hazard of the Woodford/now Link Fund 20% overhang ?
Yes, it is obvious now that the prior Board became complacent that Woodford would always be there to ride to the rescue and, when his support collapsed, the Company became overstretched. The Board looks to be a different animal now and I have confidence that Jonathan Glenn can turn this Company round.
Other posters have mooted the eventual possibility of a share consolidation. It was interesting to me to discover that the now exuberant Avacta undertook a 100-into-1 consolidation in January, 2016, converting their 6.7 Billion shares into 67 Million. Avacta have had no serious revenue for years, quite unlike TRX which is generating cash.
TRX's investors have gone through a fiery trial, but I do believe that there are sunnier uplands in view. I will endure whatever
ups and downs are ahead of us. Indeed, if there are cheap entry points, I will top up my ISA. I am not smart enough to keep a check on umpteen different shares. I have four primary long-term holdings and TRX is one of them. I am not interested in froth, I prefer to look for platform technology, good quality management, budgetary sustainability and preferably a footprint in the USA.
Many thanks to all the decent posters here. Every best wish to all and please keep safe in these very difficult times.
All the above in my opinion only; please DYOR.
Hi NK and welcome to the board,
The thing is with TRX it's always been about the Products, the IP, the Patents, the potential New Product Pipeline and the Approvals in the USA and Europe.
The market for Tissue Regenerative products and devices is already huge and growing year on year.
TRX would have grown gross sales year on year without the Woodford Investments injection of cash. With that investment they were, let's say, persuaded to buy CellRight, which instantly gave them a US presence plus £5m more turnover and it all looked good until Woodfords demise.
Then without the fairy godfather the financial overreach took its toll.
So I'm hopefull that both your goodself and I will think very differently in 12 / 18 months time because the road ahead is now quite straightforward.
If the current management mess up the next two or three big steps forward they really will be lacklustre morons.
The technology is everything, they are not competing they are accquiring new ground by converting more and more surgeons to their range of products, and once used the surgeons do not want anything else.
Other than organic growth over the next 2 to 5 years the only other factor would be a buyout by a much bigger player but only when they have the company growing and making good returns on investment.
So as you say I'm not giving up on them just being realistic that the decent return we all wanted will now depend on how well the BOD perform over the next year and a half, they don't have to do anything special just guide the ship forward.
Chester.
TheOldBee. I held 1 million at almost exactly 1p. I applied for 1 million more, therefore I now hold 2 million at 0.625. If I had sold my original million at, say 0.45 I would now hold 1 million at an average of 0.8. I think it makes sense to hold more at a lower average if you are looking at TRX long term. If you're not looking long term, why invest? Fingers crossed for a couple of years.
Chester, I fear that you have been particularly sold down the river by TRX, but I admire your optimism even after being treated so badly.
I was in a similar mindset as you in that I intended to increase my holdings when the SP was >1.05. Thankfully something held me back. The size of the dilution takes away any further long-term interest in this company for me as the greatly reduced potential reward for the continuing risk doesn't appear worth it. In addition, the actions of the BoD to bait investors with a positive RNS before allowing the axe to fall with such a huge (unnecessary) discount is questionable at best. When including my allocation of the new share issue subscribed for, my break even price is approx. 0.52p. With many new subscribers of the 0.25p issued shares potentially taking quick profits then I think it'll take a while for the SP to stabilize >.5p. I will probably stay invested for 12-18 months but my original idea of hold long-term (5+ years) has changed due to the actions of the BoD. 'Fool me once...' and all that.
Good luck with this everyone, we'll need it. NK
I won’t be selling any old or new shares !
TheOldBee,
'remember CD19 isn't over' - wise words. Covid-2019 has interrupted elective surgery and in the process caused enormous financial damage to [mainly rural] hospitals in the US. I think it is reasonable to expect that this will have some impact on the sales of TRX's products.
Well I'm going to be honest COdey I did not pre-sell my allocation, your comment has certainly given me a wake up call thank you.
Did anyone else not do something which now seems so obvious - really appreciate some honesty on this. I had and still do plan to average down again, fortunately I am here for the long term...................don't forget my question. Cheers all and remember CD19 isn't over.
There is nothing wrong with the demand for the product, the issue has always been about the long term financial viability of the company. This is now sorted, albeit at the expense of LTHs, and the BoD can now improve/extent the facilities and start producing some decent profits. I bought a few in the placing but happy to add more if the share price drifts down to 0.35p
Having been well and truly kicked in the nether region, I have had to reassess my goals and aspirations for TRX.
On June 10th there will be a lot of the new shares owned by people who will take 20% or 30% profit rather than sit on their shares for 6 months. TRX may attempt to soften the churn by putting out a positive RNS but I just don't see us speeding back up to 1p in the first month or so.
5,900,000,000 new shares is a lot to digest by the market. It will settle down eventually as the company moves forward and announce future good news RNS'es. I'm now looking at 12 to 18 months to see the beginnings of the real value of this cash injection. No debts, no monthly interest repayments and the new lab facilities fully operational.
Like a few others I will buy a few more shares if the price goes anywhere near .3p
ATB
Chester.