The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Best of luck to you as well. I'm shorting purely on my perception of value of the business, especially over the coming year or two - and the fact that anything commanding such a large premium to the profitability of the business needs to be showing very high levels of growth to come close to justifying growing into that valuation. As we have seen with other companies though, the market doesn't always reflect that and can continue to over-value (based on the financial metrics) companies significantly for long periods of time (Tesla and Ocado for instance).
Fair do's, I hope the opposite but all life is a risk. I hope we both manage a favourable outcome :-)
I very much doubt that what we post on here is going to have much impact on a £2 billion market cap company and I'm very comfortable with my position, given the actual profit that the company makes! I don't expect future guidance to be pretty when it comes.
I love that you extract one segment of the results and expect everyone else invested in the share not to understand what you are trying to manipulate
and I've travelled on trains in the past few days and there was minimal issues with the wearing of masks, in fact every seat was being used and nobody was complaining about their safety
Thank you, and I hope you did a wee bit of research and will acknowledge that the numbers down were attributed to the Virgin contract being lost - they have since won the Avanti contract and increased revenue from both leisure and B2B contracts. Rail numbers will grow as dependency on road dwindles, irrespective of companies desire to work from home - there has already been a wealth of research distributed showing the benefit of face to face meetings over automated meetings
From the March trading update - T4B sales of £1,191 million compared to £1,198 million for the previous year, a fall of 1% in business sales. So as I stated in my last post, business passenger sales were weakening even before Covid came along. Personally I find it hard to see business passenger numbers ever recovering to previous levels, as many businesses have now seen that it is possible to hold some meetings online rather than face-to-face. I also expect the consumer market to continue to be weak until such time as people once again feel safe to travel on trains.
And I challenge you to share the info on passenger numbers decreasing pre covid - that is incorrect, passenger numbers across the UK are increasing as are passenger numbers across the TRN core European markets, Covid will impact that general direction of travel but it won't alter it long term
I'm happy to continue running my short, having banked some already on the ones I had from over 500p. Hard to see business passenger numbers recovering any time soon, if they ever do, and those were already dropping even prior to Covid. It seems to be valued purely as a tech business, but I find it hard to see the tech being that valuable to another party, especially at the moment. Guidance is also unlikely to be very positive when results do come.
Lombard increased their short position on Monday, the trading update will be grim a loss of revenue of 1 billion plus, no revenue for 5 months. And passenger numbers massively reduced till 2021
Me too, at least I sincerely hope so, although I'm pretty sure they all have investor roadshows discussing plans, strategy, targets, forecasts v outcomes etc, and plenty of other stuff they are legally entitled or bound, to share, which seems to be being well received and has helped the share price remain solid
Probably unlikely that any IIs holding shares here would engage in insider trading, or that Trainline would facilitate that by illegally revealing its results prior to publication?
why indeed, I also would like to know why all these big buys have been going through in advance of the next set of results. They have no doubt been busy talking to investors in advance of publishing them, appears to have been well received given how well the price has held
Why when they release their next trading update and people realise the massive hole of no revenue for 6 months, its going down to 300. Why pay a booking fee, just go direct.
Is this all the shorts selling at a loss driving a small increase in the price