Tremor Int Ltd Share Chat (TRMR)

STIT I see you are posting loads more negative stuff on ADVFN as of a few minutes ago. Would you like to tell us of one single positive post you have posted over the past few years that would support your claim to have bought any shares in TRMR and sold them at 844, or are you going to continue your lying.

Quite irrelevant, but just to be conplete: impact loss of exclusivity news Corp deal: 20 to 30 mio usd per year. If they still work together, just not exclusively, impact even less. In perspective: net revenues estimated at 500 mio usd for 2023, or max 5 %. Each one can decide for him/ herself how relevant they feel this is.

As commented, the 3 yr exclusive deal with News Corp ends in 5 months.

Has there been an extension announcement made?

"The deal marks the start of a three-year partnership with News Corp which will equip Tremor with the exclusive right to sell outstream video on more than 50 News Corp titles in the UK, US and Australia."

https://unruly.co/news/article/2020/01/05/tremor-international-acquires-news-corps-unruly/

We've heard from SNN, where's Radium?

Having said all this, what is a $200m EBITDA company worth? It makes no sense selling out at this price!

Hi Dog, and all. I'm still here, just!

I tend to avoid posting highly negative comments on specific shares and so have not commented. The only positive was the 30% increase in gross CTV spend. If we adjust for Alphonso (I have worked on a third in the past), so the comparative ex Alphonso would be about 32 - 33m, so a very high jump in CTV spend, which should be expected given it's growing, TRMR's constant PR waffle on it and the various developments here (TV Intelligence, Comscore, Vidaa, expanded reach).

This makes the negatives worse. Non CTV revenue has dropped off a cliff, and very suddenly since the Q2 guidance was issued, ie over say a six week period. This is clearly continuing into Q3, so much so they were unwilling to guide on Q3, even when pushed in Q&A on the call. Q3 could easily be down by $15 - $20m. With others holding up (Magnite and Pubmatic) and TTD on the path of business as usual, something is seriously wrong. I am questioning their model and their protestations regarding its effectiveness - as the others sign up increasing, sizable long term SPO deals, less business is left to go through TRMR. It is getting very price competitive on the supply side, and TTD is a monopoly on the buy side.

As Rusty says re acquisitions, they have never kept the revenue they seem to buy, as they buy businesses with falling sales. The outlook for 2023 is for some growth in Tremor (probably mostly CTV related) and for Amobee to remain flat. They will not have seen the full books yet, because due diligence rules limit what they can see (they are a direct competitor, so this prevents them gaining competitor's detailed numbers and saying, thanks boys, we don't want to buy you now, but useful to know all your secrets!) To some extent they are buying blind, as with R1. They have also paid way too much, again. The clue was on the Amobee call, when Sagri said it would take a long time to get the whole ecosystem back on track to TRMR's margins.

The suggestion that long term growth is 12 to 16% pa, went down like a lead balloon, when the others state long term growth rates of 25 - 35% - again questions their model and the area of the market they are targeting. The Q&A was awkward and embarrassingly unprofessional. A complete change of character for the company.

To come out with what is really a massive profit warning on this year and next, has taken my confidence in the company and the sector. TTD and DV are near monopolies, and those two will become major tech players. I think the market has it right with the relative valuations. Prior to this, TRMR sp seemed to be on the rise nicely, towards closing the valuation gap.

I was looking for $200m EBITDA this year, not next, and then $250m + for 2023 and then $350m + for 2024 as Amobee kicks in. Now it's all out the window! The only hope is that guidance proves to be conservative and that the recession is short lived.

i have to say based on the companies they have bought and integrated, they have not increased revenue anywhere near enough. They keep saying they are adding new customers but, they are not showing the net result, i.e how many are we losing.

The reality is we are not growing anywhere near fast enough, and as gdog posts, they are paying themselves obscene amounts for not executing.

They need to be paid on increasing revenue and profitability and stop rewarding themselves obscene amounts without delivering.

starting to remind me, more and more like blinky.

Curlekev, agree with you that the short term SP fall is overdone.....I see that the SP is rising now. Fingers crossed for a significant bounce back.

Hi Eagle Sadly STIT is not the only one trying to take the price down on this and the ADVFN board. He has a lot of help from others, many of whom, like himself operate under a number of aliases. I do feel that STIT has a personal axe to grind though. If you don’t like a share then don’t invest in it, move on, but he cannot let go, he hangs around like a bad smell. I only post here to ensure that new investors know what he is doing and I thank all the knowledgeable guys for their invaluable contributions. I think yesterdays drop was hugely overdone but will continue to hold and hope that the directors stop awarding themselves obscene amounts of money for a pretty average job. Good luck to all investors here. Curly.

curleykev, I think you give STT more credit than he deserves. Hard to see how one individual is to blame for the collapse in TRMR's share price......unless they were Warren Buffett!!

STIT you are a lying bar steward and everyone on this board is aware of it. Point to one single post, JUST ONE, where you have said something positive about TRMR. You are on this board for one reason only and that is to destroy the companies share price. You are a very sick lying individual and in need of help if you think people on this board are taken in.

Hi gdog, on the operational cashflow: you're so right, feel so silly now. it 's mainly the diminition of trade payables that increased the operational cashflow. the share buyback was off course in the finance cashflow. and the vidaa investment will be in q3 cashflow. Interesting to keep an eye on that one going forward.

Hey Wouty,

Good to hear from you; I was wondering when you'd chime in. (Where's SNN I also asked myself).

One of the problems the market has with TRMR is the fact that the DSP TTD grew at 35% YoY during the same period.

As far as SBC; it's a joke in a way. They're buying back about as much stock Dollar wise as the SBC granted in shares last April. Of course they're paying much less for the stock than the price when options were granted. Still, a bit of a slight of hand from where I sit. They're granted the options (many shares of which they're selling), and the company buys back the stock with cash on hand in the stock buyback program. Yes, the SBC are treated as an expense on the taxable side, and they're not technically a cash event, so they're added back in for adj. EBITDA.

We're either diluted by the amount of the SBC, or paying them an enormous pay package with cash on hand when we buy back shares and they're selling the shares after vesting. My main gripe is they paid themselves long before they earned their keep.

General conclusion: in the coming quarters and 2023 we will have some offs due to the economic headwinds, amobee integration period, SBC comp temporarily high. I do see these negatives substantially decreasing by 2024. I get the jam tomorrow feeling on shareholders, but believe this is the reality & a lot of value here only to be uncovered by the figures in 2024.
I will be interested to see short figures in the coming days. Given the fear mongering I read everywhere, I expect short increases. However I see very little to no substance in what is being portrayed. Just my view & a lways happy to hear yours. Keep calm and take care.

How I see the results and going over the boards - trying to answer some questions or give some remarks on ongoing discussions:
- slight miss in revenues countered by cost savings in administrative costs, leading to higher gross margins
- in q1 we already saw ctv growth slowing (due to alphonso). So nobody was expecting too much for q2, where the new vidaa partnership only initiated in the last month of the quarter. However in Q2 we do see Ctv growing and other revs declining a bit.
- Q3 & Q4 2022: 148 mio ex tac revs vs 142 mio usd in H1. Positives are ctv growt fuele by new vidaa, now kicking in fully, soccer and politics. Negatives are current economic climate (covid, logistic issues, ...). I feel however there may be a short lived but deep worsening of the economy in Q4 22 or Q1 23 which in my view, is not yet calculated into the forecast. So we could have some worse quarters coming.
- Revs 2023: expectation of 500 mio usd ex tac (15 % rev growth + amobee & some upselling Amobee)
- Margin 2023: some have pointed to a sharp decrease in margin to 40%, but that is temporary and related to the amobee acquisition: let's say 150 mio of the 500 mio ex tac rev is amobee. due to the integration efforts, amobee will only reach its full potential near end of 2023. Currently they realise -20 mio usd adj ebitda on 150 mio ex tac rev. Tremor sees operational savings for 50 mio usd in 2023 related to amobee. That gives - 20 + 50 or 30 mio usd adj ebitda for the 150 mio usd ex tac rev part of amobee. Or 20 % gross margin. In 2024 that will obviously become around 50%. For the remaining 350 mio usd ex tac, to come to 200 mio usd adj ebitda for 2023, 170 mio usd adj ebitda is epxected to be realised, so around 50%. conclusion: no deterioration of margin.
- Some say cash has gone down heavily compared to last year (-30 mio uSD indeed). That is because the share based compensation has gone up to 50 mio usd this year. Next year this will drop to 20 mio usd. So again, a temporary effect. no operational issues behind this.
-The share based compensation does not impact adjusted ebitda. Whether there is or is not a SBC, adj ebitda is the same. (added as a cost and then deducted as adjustment). The SBC does however impact cash (see remark above) and net profit.
- Results are all in all very much in line with what i expected. I don't see any major issues so looking for possible risks:
* market believes tremor will not be able to integrate amobee? I would disagree based on the fact that our mgmt have in the past delivered very well in integrating businesses. But let's watch closely
* major economic downturn ahead not yet incorporated in the forecast? That I believe will be the case. I think we will see actuals short of forecast in either Q4 22 or Q1 23 because of a huge economic downturn. However I believe this will be sort lived and sorted out in the quarters after.

Curly,
"Why would you buy shares with so many red flags and such a supposedly bad history. "

That's easy.
As I said at the time, the shares were rising because ad tech was in a bubble.
The shares have a history of rising on bullish comments and falling on events.

Therefore, I bought on the back of the bullish comments by the rampers. I bought, whilst continuing to warn of the red flags. I then sold because of my conviction that the shares have a history of rising on bullish comments and falling on events.
I continued to state 'best to trade', which is exactly what I did.

Likewise, in 2017 with rthm(now trmr) I sold at eq 590p, whilst posting the red flags. I sold because of the results being the event.

Here's the evidence from my posts.
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/stt1/?page=3

I'm glad I backed my conviction.

JR,

Berne Madoff was a maggot (and a maddock). They're all one and the same from where I sit.

Ripley,

The only reason the EBITDA looks so good is because they add back the $31 million the gluttons at the top took for themselves as share-based compensation.

Part of being a good steward of a public company is managing shareholder expectations. These guys got it very wrong, and they gave us guidance for last quarter halfway through the last quarter. Poor managers, vastly overpaid.

I sold most of my holding here quite a while back only because I had much better place for my money at the time,as it happens it was a wise move, although very lucky one....
Looking at today update which I thought wasn't that bad and certainly not deserved the market harsh treatment I decided to add few to the even fewer I still holds,I think the current lows is a decent base to build from,and you never know there will be even better price to add in the near term, surely better days to come soon enough....
GLA.

Meant maddoff!

JR

Gdog, LOL! My mistake!
Did not mean that at all. Meant bernie of ponzi fame who died in jail!
We both learned something useless! LOL!
Not going to wait for ever though, these crooks and liars are just that.

JR

Bought back the slice 3/7/21 for 822p for 340p @ 2.50pm
Good Rns but 23% fall .

(Sharecast News) -
Tremor shares dive despite record first-half earnings
Tue, 16th Aug 2022 12:08
Tremor International reported record first half adjusted EBITDA of $72.7m on Tuesday, making for an increase of 12% year-on-year.
The AIM-traded advertising technology company said its "durable and efficient" operating model drove record margins, with a 46% adjusted EBITDA margin in the first-half on a reported revenue basis.
It recorded a record connected television spend of $110.9m, up 26% on the prior year, reflecting 36% of total spend and 41% of programmatic spend.

Hey JR,

I learned something new today, thanks for that.

My (sometimes) trusty UK slang dictionary tells me a maddock is UK slang for maggot,

I can't disagree with your assessment.

STIT says “there’s nothing different to what has been happening at BLNX/RTHM/TAP now TRMR for the past few years. He also states that he has mentioned the red flags for years. This same lying bar steward would have us believe that he then bought these same shares and sold out at 844. Why would you buy shares with so many red flags and such a supposedly bad history. He is either a disgruntled ex employee or sick, or both.

gdog,
Hi Cousin, where are you when I need you? Can we set up a class action against the crook ofer who has been stealing our money under false pretences? Another maddock!
JR