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….sure that made a huge dent on a whopping 353% increase! But I give you that it i affecting your sentiment towards it!
hey what happened on the daily reminders?!?!
Magnite sp closed down again.
Today down 2.76%
Is last week's CEO sell of $1.7m still affecting sentiment?
https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/retail/nasdaq-mgni/magnite/news/this-insider-has-just-sold-shares-in-magnite-inc-nasdaqmgni
The Trade Desk down 4%.
Pubmatic down 3%
"Last week the Magnite CEO sold $1.7m worth of shares. The shares ended the week down 20%"
...and yet in year it is up to a whopping 353%. I would sell to if I had that return on Tremor - not sure why even contemplating the issues.
Plus the COO of Magnite Inc. Evans Katie Seitz owns over 491,575 shares of Magnite Inc stock worth over $24 Million dollars. So basically he sold penuts!
Plus STT1 words "There's a big difference between ad tech MODEL and ad tech INDUSTRY" so there you have it one minute were good now they are bad again.
Oh everyone please listen do not forget that TREMOR has 22 M provision on our BS. There you have it I have done the daily reminder for you!
Last week the Magnite CEO sold $1.7m worth of shares.
The shares ended the week down 20%
https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/retail/nasdaq-mgni/magnite/news/this-insider-has-just-sold-shares-in-magnite-inc-nasdaqmgni
What point are you making numb-nuts?
Bru
"Your words below underline message implies a doomed industry for sure.
There's a big difference between ad tech MODEL and ad tech INDUSTRY. Look it up in the dictionary.
When there's questions around the MODEL, it creates industry challenges.
Where do I say the INDUSTRY IS DOOMED?
Trmr also suffered from those industry challenges, as they stated in the H1 2019 report.
The MODEL was impacted but the INDUSTRY still exists, doesn't it?
The profit warning from the company themselves, is there in black and white - AS EXPECTED.
" This coupled with the weakness in the Performance division year on year means that the Board believe the Company will be marginally behind full year expectations on profitability for 2019. "
The closing of rthm's operations - rthm operations not so good then? - AS EXPECTED
"Several of RhythmOne's products have been discontinued alongside its demand-side platform ("DSP"). The development of RhythmOne's data management platform ("DMP) has also been taken in-house. This initiative created an operational challenge for management, however they believe the decision will markedly benefit the company in the medium-term. The reduced development, maintenance and data centre costs form part of the wider initiative to streamline the Company's operations."
Industry Challenges continues to affect trmr - AS EXPECTED
"The performance-based division has continued to be impacted in 2019 by the well-documented headwinds which have affected both topline revenue and profitability. "
https://www.investegate.co.uk/tremor-international--trmr-/rns/interim-results/201909240700083776N/
Stt
"I've never claimed the ad tech industry, itself, is 'doomed'."
Your words below underline message implies a doomed industry for sure. The rest is a repetition. By the way you have forgot to mention the 22 M provision. I missed my daily reminder. Please keep up the good work! lol
"1) Investigations into ad tech model should increase this year. These were postponed due to covid. RTB is centre to ad tech model and IAB's model is being questioned.
2) investigations into Ad tech fraud
3) court cases affecting ad tech companies
EVERYONE TREMOR HAS 22 M provision just in case you have missed it ;-) lol
Bru
"5 minutes ago you were saying that this industry is doomed because all the potential adtech bubble burst . Now you are happy to emphasize the sell or buy side only companies "
I've never claimed the ad tech industry, itself, is 'doomed'.
They are 2 different bear points facing trmr.
1) The ad tech bubble bursting. When that happens all ad tech companies, regardless of their business model, should see their sp crash. Compare the fundamentals to a year ago and you'll see the only thing driving the sp is PI appetite. The same happened in 2013-14 and 2016-17 before prices fell due to events. It reminds me of the .com boom and subsequent bust. Sps of all .com companies fell when .com bubble burst.
2) The single sided v full stack. The Trade Desk and Telaria(Magnite) commented against the full stack.
The first is to do with the ad tech bubble, the 2nd to do with the model used by the companies.
Rthm(now merged with trmr) operated a full stack for years. They made losses for years. Their results speak for themselves.
The problem with a full stack is one of transparency, as Telaria said when they demerged from trmr(TAP).
Telaria (Magnite) reasons for demerging from trmr(TAP)... perceived conflict of interest
"Clients were also uneasy with Tremor servicing both the buy- and sell-sides."
"There's always been a little bit of friction because we were selling agencies and advertisers different products while we were representing publishers," Zagorski said. "And the people who plug into that sell-side platform would always be somewhat hesitant to commit to it in a huge way because we had that perceived conflict."
https://adexchanger.com/digital-tv/tremor-video-sells-demand-side-business-taptica-50m/
****************************************************************************
The Trade Desk (TTD) previously quoted as saying that their one sided approach was the key to its success...other companies have also ditched both sides...
"Many companies that tried to run ad tech businesses on both sides later have sold one side off: Rubicon shut down buy-side platform Chango, with then-CEO Frank Addante admitting the acquisition was a failure. Tremor Video just sold off its buy-side business to focus on the supply side. Amobee sold its sell-side business to focus only on the buy side. The Trade Desk, which has seen its stock skyrocket post-IPO, consistently cites its single-side, agency-focused approach as a key to its success."
https://adexchanger.com/platforms/appnexus-buy-side-falls-wayside/
My father used to repeat himself, over & over & over again....dementia!
I wonder if he realises what he is doing. Poor chap.
PS this is not a formal diagnosis, just an observation. Best to consult a doctor.
....OK so let me get this straight 5 minutes ago you were saying that this industry is doomed because all the potential adtech bubble burst . Now you are happy to emphasize the sell or buy side only companies and of course making Tremor look bad. Oh dear Lord help this poor lost soul.
I agree on one thing that you say "So they shouldn't. Everyone should form their own opinion, as it's their money." However, only the fools falls for your systematic targeted opinion. Not to mention the broken record of 22 M provision (I mean how many times do you have to repeat yourself) We got it, it is 22 M thank you Stt1 for reminding us on a daily basis. Look forward to my daily reminder tomorrow. lol
PUBM, like Magnite(Telaria(ex trmr)) and SpotX, are also ranked higher rthm(now trmr) on the Pixalate Seller Trust index.
Is it a coincidence that Magnite bought SPOTX because they have a higher Pixalate ranking, given Magnite have advocated transparency within Ad Tech eco system?
Pixalate rankings. Seller Trust rankings.
For CTV, on Roku/Samsung, Magnite(Telaria) have a higher trust ranking than rthm(Trmr).
Telaria demerged from Trmr(when it was TAP). Now part of Magnite.
Q1 - 2020 - CTV
ROKU
Telaria (Magnite) 1st/10
PUBM 4th/10th
SPOTX 5th/10th
RhythmOne 9th/10, down 4.
SAMSUNG
SPOTX 2nd/10
PUBM 9th/10
Rhythmone 10th/10
https://www.pixalate.com/sellertrustindex/#!Roku
Pubmatic announces 4th qtr results.
Again, Pubmatic only operate ONE side of the ad tech model, like Magnite, they are a SSP.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pubmatic-announces-record-fourth-quarter-210500912.html
"Tremor are about to erupt like a roman-candle with a salvo of good news shooting upwards."
============================================================
Calm down Tricky, pace yourself. You'll get us so excited that things could start to get messy!!
Personally I reckon TRMR are about to ejaculate profits.
Brubru24 - thanks for the link. Article generally agrees with my lines of thought and opinions that I have previously posted.
I would wish to add - it's all about CTV now going forward, and this is only getting started. The US is just getting off the ground here, and then the rest of the world is to follow! The shift from linear TV, to streaming, is all pervasive – ads will be digitalised, targeted and programmatic. It has to pass through a digital ad tec system. The operating costs, though not strictly fixed, are as good as fixed as you can get – it’s an IT platform, with upgrades needed and costs to roll out globally, ie very high operational gearing / incremental profits from increased revenues. (The risk is to underestimate future profits on a massive scale, rather than underestimate increases in costs.)
US ad tec is on PER of now over 100, more than 200 on a multiple of EBITDA. Take the 100 PER. If profits double, the PER becomes 50. Double profits again, the PER is 25. How many years will it take to double profits and double again? I address this to the stock market at large – “it’s YOUR call”. What if it’s only three years? Will the TTD be on a PER of 25 if that comes about? Not on your nelly. Is TTD overvalued – no. It’s where the market is pricing it, by balancing the risks / returns that are probably foreseeable from where we are now.
The question is, where does this leave Tremor? TTD is already doing 10 times the amount of business of Tremor. But Tremor, has significantly higher gross margins, being on both the DSP SSP sides. Is Tremor just too small and will it get squeezed out? Given the current trading figures from the company, this does not appear to be the case. The global market is hugh. I am also increasingly thinking that Tremor is actually carving out a niche part of the market for itself and is not trying to compete directly with the big boys in the mass market, for example Unruly has this ‘emotional intelligence’ data thing going on. It sounds niche, a bit odd, but that certain advertisers want it, in certain circumstances, and because it’s different it commands a bigger profit margin. The management is smart enough to know to take a niche direction, and I think that’s why it’s gone to both sides (both sides are in the niche). In other words, it becomes monopoly like in the niches it chooses to go for.
But the stock market does understand niches, doesn’t like them, doesn’t trust them. Because niches have a habit of being short lived, and therefore the market does not price in profits into perpetuity – for the time being, I think this is one of a handful of factors holding back our share price. Investors will need to hold their patience as well as their nerves on this one.
And that’s MY call. My opinion, my research, my money.
Bru,
"Not everyone thinks like you do you know?"
So they shouldn't. Everyone should form their own opinion, as it's their money.
The Trade Desk operate a different ad tech model to trmr. They are a DSP.
Trmr operate a full stack, ie serve both sides of the ad tech model.
Below are Telaria(demerged from trmr) and The Trade Desk's comments on operating the one side of the ad tech model.
Trmr actuals are lower than Finncap's March expectation and their adj ebitda lower than fy2019.
What's changed compared to a last year?
Telaria (Magnite) reasons for demerging from trmr(TAP)... perceived conflict of interest
"Clients were also uneasy with Tremor servicing both the buy- and sell-sides."
"There's always been a little bit of friction because we were selling agencies and advertisers different products while we were representing publishers," Zagorski said. "And the people who plug into that sell-side platform would always be somewhat hesitant to commit to it in a huge way because we had that perceived conflict."
https://adexchanger.com/digital-tv/tremor-video-sells-demand-side-business-taptica-50m/
****************************************************************************
The Trade Desk (TTD) previously quoted as saying that their one sided approach was the key to its success...other companies have also ditched both sides...
"Many companies that tried to run ad tech businesses on both sides later have sold one side off: Rubicon shut down buy-side platform Chango, with then-CEO Frank Addante admitting the acquisition was a failure. Tremor Video just sold off its buy-side business to focus on the supply side. Amobee sold its sell-side business to focus only on the buy side. The Trade Desk, which has seen its stock skyrocket post-IPO, consistently cites its single-side, agency-focused approach as a key to its success."
https://adexchanger.com/platforms/appnexus-buy-side-falls-wayside/
fy2020 expectations compared v fy2019 actuals
Their revenues are higher than fy 2019 but their adj Ebitda is lower. I was expecting adj Ebitda to be significantly higher than fy2019, especially given the surge in ads due to US Elections and supposedly the huge increase in CTV.
Revenues are higher but adj ebitda is lower. 2020 includes Unruly, 2019 doesn't.
Revenues: $404-408m (2019 $325.8m)
Adj Ebitda: $58-$60m(2019 $60.4m) ** Lower than fy2019
Net cash $96m(2019 $76m)
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Tremor_2019_AR_WEB_SPREADS.pdf
Finncap expectations
Compared to finncap's expectations from earlier last year, they are still below those expectations.
Finncap notes - free to register.
Finncap expectations as of 31st March were:
revenue: $424.9m, now $404m-$408m, DOWN $25m
ebitda: $75.0m, now $58-60m, DOWN $15m
https://researchlibrary.finncap.com/File/View?file=62f9bbb9-4efe-49f7-a809-002552770f2a
Tremor are about to erupt like a roman-candle with a salvo of good news shooting upwards.
Not everyone thinks like you do you know?
https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2020/12/five-big-reasons-trade-desk-stock-on-track-to-1000/
Everyone here is in the long game and rightly so. Even if and a BIG if some sort of regulation comes in so be it. All good for an industry that is making his way to be the replacement of traditional adverts. I can't think of anyone better placed than Tremor in terms of the offer.
So, as I said in the past I will see you in the 1000 very soon.
Magnite closed down 11%
The Trade Desk closed down 6%
I think US is in an ad tech bubble and will burst. I'm keeping an eye it and the following:
watching Ad tech companies:
1) Investigations into ad tech model should increase this year. These were postponed due to covid. RTB is centre to ad tech model and IAB's model is being questioned.
2) investigations into Ad tech fraud
3) court cases affecting ad tech companies
Any major negative newsflow and the ad tech bubble can burst.
...and out of all that you still miss the point that even if tremor would be valued at 1 B or 1/6 of Magnite I will be on my way to the Caribbean's sunshine (after Covid hopefully)
...oh and after all that gibberish about what happened donkey years ago, the market have changed dramatically from what it was back than.
In regard to the 22 M bad debt provision (yes this what happens when you acquire other company) you buy the baggage not just the good things. In T1 it was all disclosed nicely which has also contributed to to the 22 M. Of course one would provide for prudency but it has been fully accounted for. Finally, why would you buy back shares if you were not confident with the business model. One would argue to make the books look good? Not in this case I am afraid.
Brubru,
"Magnite inc is worth >6 B, Tremor only 0.7 B. Magnite revenue 199 M Tremor revenue 400 m"
Trmr $22m debt provision, H1 $30m loss, CEO sells 700k shares, adj ebitda lower than fy2019.
Revenues:
Trmr + rthm were supposed to have revenues around $700m when they merged, yet still significantly lower
https://www.thedrum.com/news/2019/01/30/rhythmone-and-taptica-plot-merger-compete-with-google
Revenue increase were mainly from acquisitions, Unruly Jan 2020, so 1st full year contribution and full contribution from rthm(8mnths in fy2019).
Magnite (Telaria + Rubicon merger):
Crucially, Telaria(now Magnite) demerged from trmr citing perceived conflict of interest. Why did they demerge from trmr?
"Clients were also uneasy with Tremor servicing both the buy- and sell-sides."
"There's always been a little bit of friction because we were selling agencies and advertisers different products while we were representing publishers," Zagorski said. "And the people who plug into that sell-side platform would always be somewhat hesitant to commit to it in a huge way because we had that perceived conflict."
https://adexchanger.com/digital-tv/tremor-video-sells-demand-side-business-taptica-50m/
The Trade Desk - one side of ad tech model:
The Trade Desk (TTD) previously quoted as saying that their one sided approach was the key to its success...other companies have also ditched both sides...
"Many companies that tried to run ad tech businesses on both sides later have sold one side off: Rubicon shut down buy-side platform Chango, with then-CEO Frank Addante admitting the acquisition was a failure. Tremor Video just sold off its buy-side business to focus on the supply side. Amobee sold its sell-side business to focus only on the buy side. The Trade Desk, which has seen its stock skyrocket post-IPO, consistently cites its single-side, agency-focused approach as a key to its success."
https://adexchanger.com/platforms/appnexus-buy-side-falls-wayside/
Sizmek were also offering CTV, they were also Nasdaq listed and they owed rthm(now trmr) over $m... Yet they filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
...sure the only small difference is that Magnite inc is worth >6 B, Tremor only 0.7 B. Magnite revenue 199 M Tremor revenue 400 m Care to see the difference anyone? Oh dear Lord help us out here!
Magnite sp currently down 13%
Their COO sold $1.7m shares.
https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/retail/nasdaq-mgni/magnite/news/this-insider-has-just-sold-shares-in-magnite-inc-nasdaqmgni