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Gdog, ahh -PST?
Not boring at all.
Nice personal story on Amazon investment and to follow through for me its all about AWS/cloud as 5G rolls out and what we can do with the IoT's. Keep faith they are doing a great job. Looking at multiples' as a pure value investor can sometimes stop you in your tracks. I recall Autonomy and HP bought them-turned sour. On Google, I recall post 2008 buying it finally at $$175/250 having been stopped out four times -got there with both names for clients and many more.
My speciality is US stocks, sector, industry and cross asset class analysis having worked for WSt majors, but I run a global search screen and found Trade Desk and peers and one happened to be RTHM which merged with TAP. Like you, I am in because I believe in the video/internet, change in advertising model etc and the transformation vs incumbents' -FB/Google etc tell the story.
Re your point on forecasting-- very true. I tend to take this view on forecasting because of modelling and I get it wrong - if the macro environment is right and management is good at innovation you can have some predictive qualities on revenues and CF. Without forecasting, fund managers would invest passively and simply choose an appropriate benchmark to be validated against. Active managers require forecasting, the more refined the information ratios you can produce for them from the raw signals and fundamentals, the greater the opportunity to create strong alphas’ and help fund manages achieve their goals of making solid returns whatever the market volatility is like. Information analysis, mostly fundamental (99%), with TA (1%) evaluates the ability of any good signal to forecast returns. It determines the appropriate information coefficient to use in forecasting and quantifying the information content of the signal--i.e. price when you are invested. Good data in is good output-- poor data in rubbish output and poor analysis!
For me, as a complimentary method to the traditional yardstick of fundamental analysis, the role of management’s business analysis as a measurement parameter is used to evaluate the success of a company and how this influences critical business decisions. Strategy is a very obvious determinant both in the magnitude and consistency of a company’s future earnings and the way it responds to change.
hence , the performance of the stock market as a whole is the standard against which the candidate industry and company are compared. Therefore, in the final phase to purchase a stock, the quality of an investment is determined by a combination of characteristics of the industry and the competitive advantage of the company- hopefully Tremor!
In short, strategic analysis supplements the fundamentalist, contrarian and value investment approaches. This approach makes it unnecessary to attempt the absolute need to forecast future earnings. Amazon, Google, FB, MSFT, ADBE etc prove the point, IMO
Enough said, have a lovely day.
Nice chatting with you as well, but it's still morning here. I am 8 hours behind the UK.
Yes, I am, or was, a classic fundamentals investor. A lot has changed with the speed of disruptive technologies. I ask my 27 year old nephew for the latest trends. A lot of metrics have changed, and that really began for me with Google then Amazon. When Amazon was at 200 I kept saying it was totally overvalued, which it was by any traditional measurements. I watched it for years, paying attention all the way. I finally started to buy in the mid-1,900s after a "bad" conference call, but by then I knew how to read what was going on with mgt. (it was a "bad" quarter only because they poured so much Money into growing the biz, they missed profit estimates). I kept buying, in separate 15 tranches, down to the mid-1,700s. This was in July-October 2019. I am now pretty happy with my totally 'overpriced' purchases (on a fundamentals basis) of Amazon, with an average cost of $1,861.64, even though I paid "way too much" on a classic fundamental basis only a few years ago.
That being the case, I actually got into this one, literally, 21 years ago, with Virage, which was bought by Autonomy, spun off as blinkx, etc...I've told that a few times here, so sorry if I am boring you. It was all about video over the internet for me, and, apparently, it still is, some 21 years later.
I do fairly deep dives into mgt, conference calls, quarterly and annual reports, sector developments, etc.
But I keep one thing in mind, always: Nobody knows what tomorrow may bring. Forecasts have a way of vaporizing when the competition has their say.
Hi Gdog,
Glad that I made you smile-it keeps us young! Thanks for your background, I understand your viewpoint.
Nothing much as changed in basic TA, except as you point out the PC, this has helped process and derive information in a timely manner for investing, and the speed at which price, and the different asset classes change hands.
Looks like we have been both at it for decades---for myself since the mid eighties with a couple of WS majors--- I surmise, that both you and I are are very much a classical Graham and Dodds type investor? I do a lot of digging around and company investor calls, everything helps.
Happy for the PC and internet. Before PC's one of my " more interesting jobs" was to keep the daily, weekly, monthly charts updated manually for the newly formed FTSE100 and a few names in the FT Actuaries All Share Index -- bar charts, point and figure etc using the FT back pages. One gets a feel for things having done it the old fashion way and eventually when Excel worked it helped automate the plots!
Like you where taught - fundamentals first and the behavioural finance traits thereafter through price sentiment/psychology or TA are helpful whilst waiting patiently for the next phase of the price trend to scale up as fundamental follow on.
Good to chat with you, be well and have a good evening.
Best regards.
Hey KPDm,
Agreed. I am smiling at your comment about 'being trained in TA by exam': "Trained as a technical analyst by exam -habitual reviewing style."
I was trained predominantly in fundamentals, way back in the 1970s. Of course they taught technical analysis as well in biz school, and I well recall my professor having a bent towards fundamental analysis, but he would talk about investor sentiment, investor psychology, etc., IE technical analysis, for short term traders. This was before PCs. Seems to me a lot of it still applies today.
I do (kinda) use TA to buy...at least a tiny bit. But it's really all about the fundamentals to me.
Hi Gdog,
Wholly agree with you.
Supporting Rusty's reasonable comment and my own view point as per the technical price trend facts as outlined- no other agenda. I don't really comment on these chat boards but watch for comments stocks that I own, always interesting.
I use both fundamentals and Technicals as part of my investing style. Simply, Technicals show sentiment/momentum support for a stock or not between management reports about the business - charts paint a picture of current and potential future trends based on fundamentals.
For myself, Fundamentals always first and let the price to the rest as long as Earnings and Cashflows are following through. Trained as a technical analyst by exam -habitual reviewing style. Offering a view point on what to expect from the price trend.
Best regards.
KPDm,
If you're a long term holder, why care about technicals? All that should matter to "a LTH" are the fundamentals.
I am a LTH- been through the wars with it and thankfully, back in profit once more.
DYOR---Purely on a technical basis, I had recently posted that we have an inverse head and shoulders pattern, iHS, in the weekly chart that would find support around 675 to 725 but trend must hold this price band pattern, which generates a target at 860-900p from the iHS. These patterns are generally reliable as part of the on going investor sentiment, but just that- a price pattern that can fail!
Further, looking at the weekly chart, the 40 week Simple Moving Average, SMA, peaked at 410p on 23/3/2018; today its at 370p. The current uptrend if maintained around 700p, has the 40 week SMA rising at ~ 3p a day or 15p a week.
The difference 410-370 =40p, that means 40/3 ~ 14 trading days before the 40 week SMA is at a potential new high. In trading days, this gives May 11th as a key technical day for a significant start of a price break out-assuming that there is no major price deterioration (below ~650p)or change in fundamentals. All we can infer, pre-any new information from the company is that, the price momentum of the 40WSMA supports the price action and fundamental from the company and a rising price trend that will seek to exceed 760p+.
For what its worth, Initial target from the iH&S 860/900 from mid-May, but look towards GBP10 as around number to be tested as a major resistance level. DYOR on chart. Based on these type of technical observations, ahead of the target date of mid-May, we can anticipate that the price will be near or above recent 760 high. Price is always anticipatory to confirming fundamental news flows in the coming period from the company.
In the interim, potentially ahead of more good news, lets see how the Technical Factors play out.
Yes, tough at the tops, lots, hopefully, to look forward to.
If you looked at the presentations last yea, they were going to be moving into areas and countries we hadn't even touched, so, If, and its always a big, IF, things do continue on the same vein, or even better, share price, will take care of itself.
Interesting trade at 11:48:01 - you can look it up for your selves.
Some serious s h i t is gonna happen soon. Still plenty of glue left in the tube.
Totally agree Rusty. I guess the market is waiting for a bit more proof of continued strong performance, and on the back of that (hopefully) performance some bullish guidance going forward....and the US listing.
Exciting times, potentially...
That until we get some new that will take this higher, then the £7 mark is proving to be one cry big hurdle. We had a rise yesterday to £7.22, but it was reduced wth the UT, and this morning has been taken back to the levels of around the £7 mark again.
I posted over a month ago that £7 was going to be difficult, it did look as if we had cleared it after the update, but as soon as the volumes drop the share price came down with it.
Once we get a good update, hopefully, we can clear this once and for all, and head for £10 plus.