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Bru
"Needless to say that if C-19 had not happened, we would have been at least on 320 and possibly 400"
I very much doubt it. Post the fy TU on 6th Jan, the sp fell from around 175-180p to around 160p then was around 180p for a while.
The current sp of around 140p is only around 15%-20% lower, which isn't a significance difference.
Rubi, for instance, has fallen from around $13, Feb 20, to around $5.50 and fell again today, so more than 50%.
Trmr has fallen from around 190p, Feb 20 to currently 140p.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TRMR.L/?p=TRMR.L
Tricky,
"It is good to see the much-criticized Blinky/R1 being given huge credit by Tremor"
They are following rthm's footsteps...
Pre-rthm merger the expectations were for $700m revenues, yet they have delivered $325m, less than 1/2, which is very poor.
https://www.thedrum.com/news/2019/01/30/rhythmone-and-taptica-plot-merger-compete-with-google
"All this before benefits from 'Unruly' kick in!"
They have closed several rthm operations, inc their DMP. That is a loss of revenue and cash from those operations.
Trmr have to pay a guaranteed £30m revenues (possibly $35m-$38m??) to News International as part of their takeover deal of Unruly.
I doubt the smaller contribution from Unruly will compensate for the loss from those discontinued operations.
The rthm sp when they merged a year ago was 169p. Today's eq sp is 115p.
Unruly takeover to consist of guaranteed £30m ($35m-$38m??) revenues to NI:
https://www.exchangewire.com/blog/2020/01/06/tremor-international-acquires-news-corps-unruly/
Trmr may have given rthm credit but that just shows how badly their operations, pre-rthm merger were doing.
ShareNicely,
"Figures bang in line with expectations. "
The results form a similar pattern to rthm results. They were bullish at the beginning of the year but always failed to back the up when it came to results. These results show the same pattern.
Have a look at how bullish they were a year ago for fy2019 and compare it to what they have actually published. They were only within expectations if you're comparing to the vastly lowered expectations in the TU of 6th January, which was post fy2019 (Dec 2019).
They are actually a lot lower than the expectations set by the company broker, Finncap on 2nd April, ie after they merged with rthm.
Compare Finncap 2nd Apr 2019 for this fy expectation with the vastly lowered revised note of 6th Jan 2020.
Free to register
https://researchlibrary.finncap.com/Research
"CTV revenues look good, $18m in Q4"
They are comparing Q1 2019 against Q4 2019. Q1 2019 was pre-rthm merger, which completed at end of Q1. Therefore, not a proper comparison.
Trmr are following rthm with CTV, so I'd thought Q4 2019 was from rthm and not organic growth.
CTV revenue of 4x$18m is approx $72m, which is very poor given they are now moving more and more to rely on that format.
The fy revenues of $325m is approx 1/2 they were expecting a yr ago.
Crucially the $325m revenues include contribution from several rthm operations which were closed during the year. Likewise their cash includes cash received from the rthm merger (Apr 2019) and cash from operations which are now discontinued.
Crucially there will be nil cash or revenue contributions from those discontinued operations for this fy2020.
Therefore, I expect this year's fy2020 (Dec 2020) revenues to be a lot lower than $300m and their cash to be substantially lower.
The lower and missed expectations existed pre-Covid-19.
And don't forget there were already further Industry Challenges to hit the industry this and next year, pre-Covid-19.
Needless to say that if C-19 had not happened, we would have been at least on 320 and possibly 400 in a couple of weeks. Frigging C-19!!
It is good to see the much-criticized Blinky/R1 being given huge credit by Tremor:
"Revenues of $325.8 million, up 18% (2018: $276.9 million), underpinned by the acquisition and integration of RhythmOne plc."
"Clearly the RhythmOne merger has been central in delivering this change and the success of our strategy is reflected in the performance of our video brand advertising division, which generated $248.6 million of high-margin revenues in 2019. "
" Completed integration of RhythmOne, delivering $40 million of cost savings (annualized) thanks to operational synergies ( payroll, data centers, rent and R&D tools)"
All this before benefits from 'Unruly' kick in!
In the past with Blinky and then Rhythmn1 the management have been criticised for adding a purchase to the results, often to deflect attention away from the results ( in my opinion ) it is refreshing to see a set of results with " real profit " and cash generative, including increasing cash, even after the buyback previously. A step in the right direction. Well done. All my opinion.
Amortisation to add back 20m - sorry for missing figure.
Looks like a few new posters on the board - a very welcome change, thankyou people.
Figures bang in line with expectations. Forecasts were before tax profit of $52m, before tax eps of 42c and $60m EBITDA. Actual are profit $50m, adjusted eps of 45c, EBITDA $60m.
Figures based on – Profit of 3.2m, add depreciation of fixed assets of 2.7m (note – do not add back depn of leases, this is really a rent payment), amortisation of acquired intangibles (what would have been previously part of goodwill, which ironically is now not amortised), share based payments of 15.8 and one-off costs of 8.3 – profit before tax of $50m.
Average number of shares was 111m, so 45c or about 36p eps. However, putting in a normal tax charge takes these down to 36c and 29p.
Having re-read my posts of 24/09/19 and 17/01/20, I was reckoning on eps of 29p ish. Obviously, I’m not a financial genius, but what it proves is that Tremor has a stable and predictable business model, which is the sort of company you want to be invested in – no nasty surprises. The only surprise here is the share price!
2020 has started well, and CTV revenues look good, $18m in Q4, so at least $80 for the full year (pre Covid 19). International expansion, further synergies from R1 still to come through of around $10m, a very modest share buy back etc. Without Covid 19 it’s any body’s guess where the sp would now be heading to. It’s uncertain how long lockdowns will continue for but if profits overall for the year come in flattish, I will see that as a good result.
Eps of 29p, in a growth segment, way undervalued, even with Covid 19 effect. SP of 180p to 240p ‘feels’ about right all things considered, until the virus fog clears. Afterwards looking for 450p to 550p (as previous broker targets).
Certainly very positive....and the market warms to it....moving in the right direction despite the current poor sentiment ....when proper confidence returns (could be some time....) the current price will looks like a bargain....IMHO.
I agree. I guess you could see this in two ways: management is being cautious or overly cautious. Given the situation, there will be opportunities out there with weaker balance sheets. Tremor is cash-rich and if there is a better time to take advantage of this strength is now. Nevertheless, who knows the impact on Tremore top clients/industries and the same will be affected going forward.
with the buy back it looks like they will put M+A on hold for now..I have confidence in our management