Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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Pipe, year on year is being achieved, 2018 saw 14% increase from 2017, we've got 8 wells including at least 1 high angle well which could achieve potentially 10 times that of a standard drill { remember Bruce saying that from last years presentation}.
pretty sure we'll achieve minimum 10% increase by end of year? and hopefully farm out for the beast TGAL!
GO analysis very good. 10% year on year production growth is not being achieved at present. Other market factors are in play but TRIN just doesn't have anything to be excited about. Plus we all expect another thrashing dilution for funding TGAL. Meanwhile the management have changed the incentive rules so they can keep trousering rewards. Share price languishes as a result. If they provided reassurance on TGAL funding plans and announced a drilling plan then it might make a lot of difference.
GO very good analysis, unfortunately I have too much at stake here and sitting on a sizeable loss so will stick around a while longer. I don't think we will ever see a change to spt, particularly while companies continue to invest and chase production, hardly sends out a defiant signal to government. Just hope the drilling campaign turns out to be more successful than the market believes it will be.
Trinity, the independent E&P company focused on Trinidad and Tobago, today outlines its initial investor communications timetable for the second half of 2019 (“H2”). Management will be presenting at a range of retail and institutional focussed investor events in London and the regions throughout the remainder of the year enabling the Company to discuss operational and financial developments as well as an overview of the its strategy.
London Events
In addition to hosting an investor presentation and institutional meetings in London when interim results are announced in September, the Company will also present at the following events:
ShareSoc event on 11 September
Oil Capital Conference on 12 September
Shares Conference on 23 October
121 Oil & Gas conference on 28-29 October
Regional Presentations
The Company will also be presenting at the following regional events:
Shares Conference in Edinburgh on 14 November
ShareSoc event in Manchester on 19 November
Bruce Dingwall CBE, Executive Chairman of Trinity, commented:
“We are very excited about our prospects for the remainder of the year and look forward to using the presentation opportunities to discuss our future plans with investors, including our ongoing drilling programme, which is about to recommence.”
Right...maths time again!
Let's assume that the CENKOS tweet conforms to Company expectations (House broker and all that):
"Cenkos forecasts 2019 year-end cash to be US$11.3m with a 2019 capex expenditure of US$14.3m; estimated 2019 daily production to average 3,224bopd on a realised oil price of US$60.5/bbl, generating US$71.1m in revenue with CNAV at 40p."
All in $
Cash balance now at end of H1 = 17.8mln
Assume run rate of $1.3mln X 6 months (at $60 oil) = 7.8mln + 17.8mln = 25.6mln
less Capex of 14.3mln = 11.3mln
Capex = 8 wells at 1.4 mln per well = 11.2 on drilling and 3.1 on general capex
2019 Average BOPD is expected to be 3224
Q1 = 3020
Q2 = 2996
Q3 = 3150(? small assumed uplift from a well or two coming online)
What does Q4 have to shoulder in order to get an average BOPD of 3224?
Answer: Q4 3731 bopd
Therefore, ~730 BOPD from an 8 well drill program = ~91 bopd from each well...
So the question is: Can they achieve this from the HAW, can they exceed this? We know that management likes to be conservative...this question defines the investment case right now. If they can deliver and throw in the hope of TOTAL SPT overhaul post the election next year and the monthly run rate jumps to ~$2.5mln pcm.
If you then allow a self funding series of further wells in 2020 then the momentum starts to be felt!
If they deliver on CENKOS and there is an overhaul of SPT then $30mln (£24mln) of annual revenue at 60 dollars is targeted.
If these two things happen the share price will be higher.
A few ifs...
If the govt is re-elected or the HAW program is not as successful as hoped then TRIN is a company that has spent ~$20 mln over 2 years to achieve a modest uplift in BOPD produced...hardly punching the lights out and the shares should be at...wait a minute...~10P!
The market is literally pricing in no SPT overhaul and a terrible drilling campaign already. Who wants to wait and see if the company can deliver?
I agree. Things can turn on a sixpence. SPT or not. Best time to buy is at the bottom. So they did. Probably manipulated it down there. But Trin is not going to stay at 10.75p. Too many big-wigs invested. We are cannon fodder. But they are not.