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Oh and by the way - I would certainly agree with MissG that "oversold" comments are not really helpful here - this is essentially a binary outcome investment - chartism does not come into it.
Neither do I think the General Election result is relevant - there was zero chance of an absolute Labour majority & their "free broadband for all" (If that is even what they said?) was undeliverable.
Charts & Macro are not relevant here imho.
Indeed in4cedros, the risk that they cannot (or will not) reach cash-flow break-even within their current resources is absolutely the critical risk for investors here. And I agree that is well beyond the risk appetite of many/most sensible investors.
Andy H's presentation at the Turner Pope evening came across to me as "pure salesman". There was however a wealth of DATA in the slides he presented, which to my eye was crying out for an expansion into the cash-flow narrative. A lot of the data was actually about costs (and has allowed me to model some likely changes) however Andy H didn't really take that opportunity. He did mention that he doesn't "stick to the script" and I have to wonder if the person that prepared the presentation wasn't crying in the corner over the lost opportunity to explain the data better!
When questioned in the Q&A about cash-flow break-even, I felt that AH was unduly waffley and not really very convincing.
I recently made my views known to Toople's Financial PR that I think the next statement HAS to give serious guidance on the cash-flow trajectory. Whether that will be taken on board or not I cannot say, but I think if there is not a clear update given on that point, I would find myself leaning to the bearish view.
Whilst I still can't really find any "broken promises" or "overstated claims"; I do think their "financial PR" on where and when the break-even point is has been poor. "Generously" I am concluding so far that is lack of experience of how to address the real concerns of investors in a public listing, but if there is no improvement in the next announcement I would be tempted to conclude that the lack of clarity is indicative of the lack of a plan.
As I have said earlier in the thread, I have staked a small amount on the basis that I think they do have a plan (and I think the TurnerPope evening numbers give an insight if you are prepared to do the legwork and trust on some assumptions.)
Reading around bulletin boards "elsewhere" there are clearly some Rampers and DeRampers in play here (I think MissG considers me part of that circus). Personally I try not to make "recommendations" of any kind; just give my opinion.
I did present Toople as a possible investment at a recent 3-minute pitch investment event in London - I think I probably spent 2 1/4 of my 3 minutes covering the reasons NOT to invest!
Personally I like the risk vs reward ratio - FROM WHERE TOOPLE IS NOW - but that is purely a personal view.
Happy to expand on reasons why on a factual basis.
Should see a steady rise now with a conservative win and the threat of free broadband/ nationalisation removes. IMO
Should see a nice rise now with a conservative win and the threat of free broadband / nationalisation removed. IMO
Oversold...should move ahead
any - Andy presented at the TP evening and should have known ( from the b/b comment ) that there was increasing concern about how the revised basis of new business production may impact on the break even date. Plenty of emphasis on new business figs but insufficient on costs - that was his prerogative but the SP has tanked since. As he is a sensible chap presumably the market thought he had deliberately decided not to deal confidently with that issue.
Perhaps the market has got it wrong and those betting against it will do well but for some the risks here are too high.
That's a bit disappointing to be honest MissG, although of course it is your right to choose not to post further comment.
"I was right in the past that the share price has gone down and I don't therefore need to say any more (other than to peddle some disproven stuff about "Breith and his cronies")" - is a little weak to be honest.
As I said I cannot really see any evidence of them either mis-stateing anything in the past nor failing to deliver on promises, so I was hoping that if I had missed something you would point it out. Perhaps someone else would be prepared to step up to the plate?
I do however agree that it is a very high risk investment (beyond my normal risk tolerance) and anyone investing here should be totally cognisant that there is a material risk of a total loss.
I do not post in order to sway anyone's opinion but rather to offer and receive insight.
I have been pretty clear about my position (a recent buyer at 0.2p in a VERY small way) others must make their own decisions based on the information available.
"I note you are a new poster and for all I know you have links to the company."
That's a somewhat leading statement and suggests a slight paranoia - it would be more accurate to say that you have no evidence that I do not have "links" with the company (nor that I do). I am a self-avowed shareholder, but other than that no "links" - But of course "I would say that wouldn't I"?
Anyway whilst disappointed,I respect your decision not to say anymore - perhaps someone else would be prepared to comment further.
Anython. Forgive me if I show a lack of enthusiasm to engage.... this will be my last reply on this subject ... I note you are a new poster and for all I know you have links to the company. I have closely followed this since the incredible fantasy launch ... predicting more or less exactly what would happen (in general terms) and I have posted long and often ... as have others ... pointing out the red flags... based on historical experiences of the ventures of Breith and his cronies. I have nothing invested here ... never have and never will... no matter how much of an “opportunity” some might like to spout. You say you have a small position at .2 ... well for your sake I hope it comes good ... to me it’s a gamble too far. But that is the risk judgement you make. Some of course might get lucky and make a quick buck on a dead cat bounce / spike ... and then shout of their investing genius. But for most here it presents misery and money down the pan that could perhaps have been usefully deployed this Christmas showing loved ones just how loved they are vs propping up the overblown salaries of this crew. Nothing in their performance to date gives me confidence. It’s just a matter of time before the poo hits the proverbial fan.... and for sure the only people who will suffer will be the small investors. Your research will have informed you of just how much the leadership of this outfit have personally invested ... should tell you everything you need to know.
I wish you well with your “investment”. I’m sure you’ve researched soundly...
Miss G
IMHO. DYOR ,
Thanks Miss G,
I thought I would try to address that point myself, so I now have this from a spokesperson for the company (which they indicated I could re-produce) :
"We are happy to confirm that there is absolutely no family relationship between Mr Hollingworth and Mr Breith.
Mr Breith sold his shares in August 2018 and to the best of the company’s knowledge now holds no stock in the business.
Furthermore he was never a PLC board member and only had a six month consultancy agreement, agreed at the time of market entry, which the company chose not to renew."
(If anyone wants to verify that for themselves, they could contact - FinancialPR@Toople.com)
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More generally, I haven't read through the posting history in full, but I can see that you were "correct all along" to the extent that the share-price has only really gone in one direction (down obviously).
The 8p valuation at listing made no sense whatsoever imho - and equally there was nothing in the initial prospectus to justify it.
However when I read back through the company history and prospectuses I cannot really see much by way of misleading statements or undelivered promises. From a "rear view mirror" point of view, the company's progress looks pretty much exactly as I would expect.
I am curious therefore (and genuinely not trying to be argumentative) to understand what you refer to when you say :
"I believe that the actions and history speaks for itself."
I should declare of course that I have a small tentative position here (from 0.2p) but I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything rather just to see if there are negative points that I have missed.
Thanks,
Anython
Dear Anython - at the end of the day one believes what they want to believe. I believe that the actions and history speaks for itself.
And lets just also say - I have been proved correct all along.
Miss G
Thanks for that Miss G - but do you have any evidence for that?
I think there was a claim somewhere in the dim and distant past of some different family relationship between Breith & Hollingworth but again totally unsubstantiated.
Not saying you are wrong, but I certainly would not trust something unsubstantiated on a bulletin board from someone I have never met. No offence intended, I trust you understand the point.
Well for starters....the (partime) CEO is his brother-in-law!
You can be sure of one thing... this lot never put their own money behind these adventures. If this is such a good thing why is the CEO not loading up at such a “rock bottom” price. Just read the history since launch.... woeful
Good luck to those who dare. Or who are just plain daft.
Miss G
:-)
Because 25% in hand is better than 100% of nothing....
any - I don't know but I'm interested to know why he thought it was worth taking a 75% loss on his loan to benefit shareholders of a company that was forecast to be cash flow positive a year later.
Hi All
I have never used the LSE boards before, but for this co. at least they seem more civilised than some other places I could mention.
A question then, probably for MissGoLightly but others welcome to chip in.
Why do you think David Breith is still involved or has an interest here?