The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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The huge discount to NAV is no use to anyone if there is no purchases - The Board should consider a buyback of shares from their cash pile which will provide immediate value addition to shareholder's and create some well needed liquidity
Having top sliced at $7 a couple of months ago, this is back to a $5.50 ask. My current estimate is around $8.66 adjusting for Backblaze @ $10.34 today. Bolt, Backblaze and reported cash alone add up to more than the market cap of $160m! You then get a free ride on everything else worth around $110-120m.
The discount has widened again to 36.5% - so the top slice is going back in :)
Meanwhile if TMT can grow it's NAV at 36% (as it has done the past 5 years) then this get really exciting. NAV uplifts to $11.78 which is a 53.3% discount to NAV. If the share price reverts to its historic 30% premium to NAV then that implies a stock price of $15.31. So a triple bagger in 7 months.
GLA
Great write ups today from Cenkos and Hybridian - but the results validate the deep value story and the forward growth potential. 47.5% YOY and 38.2% average rate of return over 5 years is impressive!
Final Results 31/12/21
· NAV per share of US$9.00 (up 47.5% from US$6.10 as of 31 December 2020)
· Total NAV of US$283.1 million (up from US$177.9 million as of 31 December 2020)
· 5-year IRR of 38.2% per annum
· US$18.5 million of net cash proceeds from exits during 2021
· US$40.5 million of investments across 31 new and existing companies in 2021
· US$19.3 million of new equity capital raised in October 2021, at US$8.50 per share
· Diversified global portfolio of over 50 companies focused mainly around big data/cloud, e-commerce, marketplaces, EdTech, FinTech, SaaS (software-as-a-service) and FoodTech solutions
· US$6.7 million of investments post year-end
· Negative effect of the military conflict in Ukraine on portfolio companies is limited (US$4.6 million of potential new write-downs currently identified), with future impact dependent on how the situation unfolds in coming months
· US$18.6 million in cash reserves as of 22 March 2021
BONKERS VALUATION
One of it's large holdings, Backblaze is trading at $1.80 below my last assessment so that reduces the NAV of TMT to around $8.75.
I topped up today sub $4.
Show me another investment trading at over 55%+ discount to NAV that can show a history of successful and profitable exits and an average 30% premium to NAV and that has a portfolio of 50 companies (a 50 trick pony perhaps?) that it shows on twitter at this address: https://twitter.com/TMT_PLC
Adjusting for the current market price of Backblaze ($12.75/share on 19/01/22) from my prior assessment ($24/share in October 2021) that reduces the NAV to $8.93 - I agree.
What is quite interesting at this stage is whether Backblaze is a "jam tomorrow" growth stock with no path to profitability or instead is a cash generative and which has a runway to positive Net Profit in 2022. If it's the former then it deserves to be at 12 bucks. If instead the business can maintain its trajectory where it is already highly profitable above the line, and given a year's growth then it's current price is well below a fair value based on fundamentals. The 6 analysts that track this share seems to concur that it's 50% below fair value. Backblaze's latest results are here:
https://f001.backblazeb2.com/file/backblaze-b2-collateral/Earnings-Presentation-Q3-2021.pdf
Adjusted for the latest Backblaze share price (fell 15% yesterday), I have the NAV just below $9 around $8.93 now. Am I missing something? Not counting any future contingent value from Volumetric.
A NAV uplift $1.29 drives a price rise of 65c on the market open? I couldn't help topping up :)
You absolute beauty!
This morning's announcement on the fundraising round for Bolt gives a tasty uplift of $1.29 on TMT's holding (a 56% uplift - Bolt is the 2nd largest holding). This takes the approximate NAV to $10.04 - or 26% below NAV. TMT has enjoyed years of growth and has historically been around 30% above NAV. It's therefore extremely cheap in my opinion.
Taken the plunge this looks a solid long term play
Now at $8.75 NAV so has achieved a 45% uplift in 9 months. The new investments look very interesting with good potential
What's with the drop today? People selling on the news? Half year report looked good
$6.10 NAV per share - Dec 2020
Plus $0.43 May 2021 Update
Plus $1.03 Aug 2021 Update
Plus anything else.
$7.56 NAV for a share buyable for $11.70
NAV uplift yesterday due to bolt fundraise = $1.03 per share.
https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=1323-15082880-042SKQ0G2PNOGF64MT0VMEAJ8B
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/02/uber-rival-bolt-valued-at-4point75-billion-in-new-funding-round.html