London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
"and any fundraising would be good for Tullow and its shareholders in the long run" No it wouldn't, TLW need to focus on making money from the black stuff not shareholders and even if diluting then nowhere near the current SP.
Ok Happy. I've explained why they aren't correct but you seem to be someone who doesn't let facts get in the way of a good argument.......
Let's agree to disagree and draw a line under your ramblings.
Guys, my figures are correct. 3-for-2 means 3 new shares issued for each 2 (see previous detailed explanation).
However, this is all speculation on my part trying to second-guess why the SP is falling when everything else is up. I am not short. Tullow is no longer a short and any fundraising would be good for Tullow and its shareholders in the long run.
None of this matters unless and until the company makes an announcement. If there is a fundraising it could, of course, be on completely different terms etc.
I'll leave you guys to it. DYOR. IMHO.
Best
Happy
Why don't you spend your time calculating how much your shares in Harbour Energy will be worth when collectively your fellow PMO holders shares all in only represent 5% of the total equity of the future entity.
What a waste of time reading that or even posting it. It's a load of hypothetical nonsense and cobblers, even if you are trying to guess a raise you have no variables A. The amount needed to be raised and B. The share price at the time C. the dozens of variable options available to plc's when diluting.
Don't know why there is a RI discussion on this issue?
The company has stated that a RI is not in their plans going forward.
I spoke to the IR team last week and they said they have no intentions to do a RI!
Time to move on from these discussions!!!
The Market cap wouldn't increase to £1.3bn just because of an increased number of shares...... the SP would drop to allow for the extra shares being issued, keeping the market cap roughly the same.
Your short going that badly is it Happy?
Happy you need to rethink your SP. Who would buy new shares at £0.387 when they would only be worth £0.15 due to dilution?
I didn't show how many shares each shareholder ends up with up. You are right that is 5.
I only showed how much the company would raise in new fumds that is:
3/2 * 1,417,678,163 * £0.36 = £776m raised or c.$1.1bn
Here's the rest of the calculation that I didn't show before:
Total shares in issue post-equity 3,544,195,407 * £0.387 (theoretical ex-rights price) = £1,372m new market cap.
The news group could then pay off say $1bn of net debt immediately and refinance on much better terms.
This is all speculation on my part and the company has not announced any such plans.
Best
Happy
Happyinvestor100 aka the broken record. Well my guess is that you are long on BP and PMO and short on TLW as a hedge, pure speculation of course. Your speculation is just that, and I'm all for balance but it's something that is currently in the unlikely pile ie. plausible but goes against all the noises made thus far by RD. So let's cut the act anybody with eyes can see you are a Canis Lupis lazily masquerading as a sheep.
But it doesn't though does it. Your example states that the shareholder would end up with 3 shares, not 5.
Yes, exactly! That's what my illustrative calculation shows.
Best
Happy
I am just catching up with the chat.
This RI example of 3:2 at circa 0.36, would mean that a lot of LTHs would have to lay out some hefty money to avoid dilution.
Happy, a 3 for 2 issue means each shareholder could buy an additional 3 shares for each 2 they own, giving them 5 in total......
Ha ha, you have got that completely wrong!
It's 3-for-2 meaning you get 3 new shares for each 2 that you currently hold.
So 1,417,678,163 shares in issue today.
So they would issue three new ones for each two currently held at a 20% discount.
New shares: 3/2 * 1,417,678,163 = 2,126,517,244.5 * £0.36 (c.20% discount) = £776m raised or c.$1.1bn.
Anyway, as I said it's all speculation unless and until Tullow says something.
Best
Happy
hey running man, check this new game out. Want to try?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkAN5rGGP1M
This has been the order of the day for the last few days, down in am followed by rise in pm, what are you fidgeting about 2-3 percentage points?
Happy, would you care to comment on my calculations?
Let's see who is right.
The price movement today is extremely odd. When there is a rights issue or placing, it often leaks because of the number of advisors and third parties involved in the chain.
I have already made clear it is speculation on my part but it is certainly not unreasonable or unfeasible.
Best
Happy
I see all the de-rampers are in full swing today , those shorts must be hurting every trick in the book being used to try and stop the rise....give it up guys ...I'm in from as low as 7p and wont be selling any despite all the wasted time you are putting in here.
Happy, as you seem to be struggling with the question, I’ve done a quick calculation -
There are currently 1,415m shares in issue. Current SP is around 44p which gives a market cap of circa £622m.
If there was a 3 to 2 share dilution that would increase the amount of shares in issue by a factor of 2.5, giving a total of 3537500000 issued shares.
Assuming the market cap stays the same, the SP equivalent would then be 15p.
Therefore the new shares would be offered at around 13p in my opinion.
This would raise circa £275m, not £1.1B to £1.3B as you suggest.
Sorry, rush of blood to the head at the idea of a RI, of course it’s end up with 5 shares not 3
Lol, you can’t count to five!
Rights issue rubbish.
How much have you lost on that Short?
Maybe opened another expected a retrace, lol.
happy, what price would you envisage the shares being offered at ?
Yes 3 new shares issued for each 2 held making 5 shares post-equity raise.
The news shares would be at a slight discount so not sure if the math quite works but it's in the ballpark, I think.
All speculation of course. The company has not made any such statement. I just think it is no-brainer to start afresh from a much stronger footing. Perhaps, they will announce it alongside results?
Best
Happy