Tullow Oil Share Chat (TLW)

Presumably agreeing kenya economics plays a part in the month delay to refinancing. Its referred in the rns but is it on the month long critical path. Is it strategically key and sit comfortably with the notion of a conservative balance sheet?

No
We are a long long way from that.
Just people stirring the pot.
They need a deal that rolls debt beyond 2022 to make this worthwhile.
Goal is roll debt and so not be forced to sell any more assets.
I am confident it will be achieved.
Remember the company pull forward these negotiations forward into Jan from March 21.

Are you not concerned about Negative Shareholders equity?

people talking about downside risk here need to address it to buyers of AMC and Gme, now that is like trying to put out a fire with petrol, Tullow are not out of the woods by any stretch but are making inroads in the right direction, and who knows, the terms of the the RBL may be well received and favourable to a re rate, time will tell, gla.

If that's the best the new can do, raise cash through a rights issue then it must be on the condition that he and Dot the dopey Greedy Dot resigns. They simply don't have a clue what they are doing or dealing with, basically a Sunday League Football manager, managing Manu United.

I for one would not vote for a rights issue; theyre should be no need with stream lining the company and selling asstes. This is more and more looking to be being processed down the same road as PMO was and proves my point on what i thought he was brought in to do when he firts arrived. Win win for the CEO, he and Dot the greedy Dot walk away with swag bags full, his mates get cheap assest for pennies and share holders get shafted. IMHO

1. The company has stated that 90% of its future Capex is in Ghana and 10% is elsewhere. The first question is it a condition of the rollover so that the 90% is not diluted downwards either through ambitions elsewhere in the portfolio or that as a result of say higher oil prices they expand the 10% elsewhere to a higher figure, but not the Ghana asset.
2. If Tullow agrees with that request it begs the question what is their priority of existing assets and my guess is they are actually all up for sale bar the offshore assets in Cote De Ivories that was specifically mentioned in today’s RNS. Of course the company wants to extract best value and not be a distressed seller. As a bond holder being asked to rollover I would want an independent source to give both the current price for assets and what it might be in the next 4 years.
3. The second major issue is how confident can we be of finding 360M barrels of oil in Ghana as described in the Capital Market Day presentation. Again an independent assessment of the calculations provided by the company need to be verified, and how optimistic/realistic is that data. It may be that the reviewer agrees a particular improved life extension of the production asset and say it does work out as 85,000 barrels a day for 3 years on Tullow production. This might support a move out from 2022 to 2025 and the 2025 bonds move out to 2028. It then raises the issue can the bonds be paid off at $55 a barrel when the company is expending $300M or so a year on Capex and would the production profile increase enough as to average out at 85,000 barrels between 2022-2025 and gas off take and other issues are all resolved for that to be possible.
4. So assuming it was possible the revenue per year becomes $1.7B as before. This would yield $200M extra after Ghana Government takes it cut and then have additional profit from the current $1.4B income as costs are spread over more barrels of oil and so the $60M Slift calculated actually becomes more like $100M. So in theory selling the odd asset and delivering $300M additional FCF each year would pay off the bonds and some RBL costs. Ideally a 4 year rollover would allow more variations in oil price to deliver the $55 average per barrel and allow the time to build up to 85,000 barrels a day.
5. The next question for the bond holders would be all the other risks on oil price, production, gas off take, Ghana Government stability and a host of other things to consider. It would be understandable for bond holders to work through and want to appraise those risks.
6. Finally in a pandemic, with home schooling, shielding, people getting ill and can not be treated, should we not expect delays in government decisions, getting agreements with banks, getting reports done by a definitive time and allowing a bit of slippage or leeway from what is usually expected.

So shorters have two weeks to scram.
Good news could come quite quickly after today’s RNS.
Let’s see. Quite a bit of fluctuation caused by the shorters today. The whole market was also struggling. Oil price holding and looking bullish.
Should be a lot of buying in the coming days.

Slift, I agree that it is unlikely we are going see a near total wipeout as the article suggested but after the delay to RBL I am convinced TLW's creditors are asking for an arrangement which is not going to benefit the shareholders. I've been staying on the sidelines since CMD . TLW can be an interesting investment once they re-finance but I'd caution anybody thinking about putting money in now - there is little upside potential and huge downside risk atm.

Stop Losses are sweet M

Agree YoungEngineer.

There is a potential for D4E swap to refinance.
However, i'm not too sure about significant dilution such that shareholders are left with 10%. This is ridiculous as this assumes c. 12.75b shares to be issued in D4E (At 20p/share, this would be $3.5b). This 10% figure is probably from March 2020 when share price plumeted to 7-8p.
Tullow are still able to farmdown/sell exploration assets and/or do a rights issue to raise some cash to cover.

Whatever way they raise cash, it'll be a rollercoaster for shareholders. This has once again become a high risk share IMO.

If it was going lower if would have happened today with an appalling market elsewhere/everywhere.
Sorry if you failed to close your short.

I don’t expect either of your two options.
They have time and MMs in control.
I expect an orderly exit for shorts between 26-33p.
Likely finish tomorrow at a higher price than today.
Clearly if TLW release a favourable RNS early they are fu..ed but that’s unlikely.
Mu guess is mid Feb?

1. Hard technical bounce in the AM to mid 22/23 2. SP continue its plummet 3. Either 1 or 2

At some point soon.
Suspect these are hedge funds and not PIs so they will get out at a profit.
Everyone now knows there with be a refinancing RNS by end of Feb and the odds are it will be good.
Sadly we will have to wait it out.
This share is not popular enough with the public to force them into more dramatic action.
Just IMO

If that would be the case then a possible blue open?

Likely shorts were let out - closed.

Something has been going on .....

Showing as a Buy .... 16:43:09 27.90788 -3,331,455 -929.74k O
Showing as a Buy .... 16:43:09 27.90788 3,331,455 929.74k O
Showing as a Sell .... 16:36:24 27.41 1,567,292 429.59k O
Showing as a Sell ....16:36:24 27.412 -1,567,292 -429.63k O
Showing as a Sell ....16:37:30 27.573 156,885 43.26k O
Showing as a Sell ....16:36:24 27.412 1,567,292 429.63k O
Showing as a Sell ....16:35:13 27.44 1,390,579 381.57k UT

I don't think they have the vision or experience between them to understand what's needed.
Maybe the banks insisted they went away and wanted to see preparation on further sales of assets before agreeing to a new finance deal?

IMHO, they need to sell further assets to get this debt down rather than limping along paying interest rates and board members salaries?

more the point being what happens if it is another of the famous Tullow dusters? it has a 30% chance of success which means it has a 70% chance of being a duster, the market knows this already so you would like to think it is priced in for failure, seeing that the market is forward looking and prices accordingly, my guess is that they will hammer this down on any bad news as is always the case, take today for an example, every time management talk to the market this gets driven down, bring on the asset sales, they are only a burden going forward, where is the money coming from to bring them to production? gla.

Why jump there? The effect is spreading over here and Tullow has plenty of Shorters who will hopefully be burnt. Today was brutal. I managed to make a small profit on the day because I pulled some out to invest in Petrofac. I am still heavenly invested here and less sure by the day. Hoping for an SP bounce over the next two days and for the shorts hunt to hit tullow otherwise seriously considering pulling out completely. GLA

Such a shame we can't do the same with the 7% of shorters who have crucified this stock for the last 6 months.

For those thinking of jumping into Gamestop be careful right now as if you check your 10 minute charts with MACD you will note that the stock is overbought right now with shortening histogram bars indicating an increase in selling pressure. Wait until this bottoms before jumping in for the next surge upwards! (Just a warning that IF you want to get in - GET YOUR TIMING RIGHT!)

The SP will drop 0.35%! Lol.

There's a article about it over on the BBC news website right now. One of those shorters had to be bailed out for $2B!!!
BURN BABY BURN!!!

I may have missed out on making money, but not missing out any fun seeing shorters being burnt so badly! Lone live the longers!