Tullow Oil Share Chat (TLW)

I think you may be right. I'm drinking the same and getting the same feeling.

I made good money from AML today and bought back in at a good price. I'm invested in Quidel, Twilio, Powerhouse Energy, Tullow and a few other companies. I know Tullow will come through, but I'm using other investments to build the portfolio and make regular profit. You need to spread your investments and don't put everything in one basket. Your share investments need to grow.
Tullow is a long term investment for me and when it is over £1.50 I will be building my early retirement fund.

July/August would be my guess, after the Trading update.

Reckon Moody's would need to know if Tullow have maintained production guidance until at least then after COVID19. Also, they'd also want to know liquidity positions between RBL determination until next results to see if Tullow has been burning cash or conserving it with the drop in oil price.

Tullow will only reveal that at the trading update, or with other significant news.

When do moodys review the credit rating in june? The rbl and the sale of uganda criteria for a rerate have been met.

Yeah ofcourse., good point.

Tullow needs a credit re-rate before any refinancing, and are making huge steps in paying down the debt to achieve the re-rate. For example, voluntarily reduction the facility commitments from $2.4b to $2.2b, reduction of CAPEX, etc.

Debt is becoming more and more manageable for Tullow. Definitely better than what it was 3 months ago.

GLA.

'But ofcourse, this will only be good if inflation is high. Deflation and we're in trouble.'
If deflation, it will probably be because of -ve or zero interest rates. Paying down some debt and refinancing at lower rates is another option ..

It's strange, but it's actually better to have debt for a longer period of time, assuming that it's manageable and that inflation is positive. The longer you hold the debt, the less it's worth.

In Tullow's case for their senior notes, assuming 2% flat inflation each year (feel free to correct me):
Their $650m senior notes due in 2022 will effectively be worth approx. $625m (due to inflation). In this period (2020 to 2022), Tullow would have paid approx. $80m in interest.
So when the loan does mature in 2022, Tullow would have paid $705m in total, effectively.

Likewise, with the $800m senior notes due in 2025 will effectively be worth approx $725m (due to inflation). In the period (2020 to 2025), Tullow would have paid approx. $280m in interest.
So when the loan matures in 2025, Tullow would have paid $1005m in total, effectively.

So for both the $600 and the $800m senior notes, Tullow would only have to paid $260m in "excess" to what they borrowed, for the period 2020-2025.

Tullow will likely produce more than $300m free cashflow in a year (or at least this year). That alone will cover the "excess" Tullow have paid.

Less than 1 years worth of cashflow for a 5 year loan of $1450m. Not that bad if manageable.

But ofcourse, this will only be good if inflation is high. Deflation and we're in trouble.
Post your opinions!

All IMO. DYOR and feel free to correct me.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Kenya-disputes-Tullow-oil-project-compensation-bill/539546-5563716-nm9wuvz/index.html

But Hertz didnt hedge 60% of their rentals for 2020 and 40% for 2021. Not saying debt isn't a problem, clearly it is. But they are not alike

Such great news but no RNS by rubbish management hence SP keep dropping. This management lead by Dorothy has no experience when and how to release RNS.
PMO,ENQ,BP, Shell, etc. up but only Tullow down.

https://www-businessdailyafrica-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Kenya-disputes-Tullow-oil-project-compensation-bill/539546-5563716-view-asAMP-13ji3ks/index.html

Got a feeling

Don’t ask why. Can feel it in my Nescafé

'Positive'
I'd rather stay in tlw
https://youtu.be/YG6UllZwj9c

Ohme, tell me; since TLW managers messed up big time what has actually changed within the company? oh yea, the main CEO did one, they laid off many staff and sold off assets at half price.

The people who created the mega crash, and it was a mega crash, are still in place.

"Yeah cause oil companies are well known for paying down debt "

Tlw are working on it and PMO to name two,

Put your shovel down the hole your in probably digs itself

Yeah cause oil companies are well known for paying down debt instead of lavishing dividends on shareholders, borrowing more, buying back shares

"Multi bagger within days quote i mean"
If you're referencing me then where did i say "days" ?

Long haul yes please i am not invested here here for a paultry 15 % trade , happy to wait a few years as ifs many years yet till i retire . Debt could be well gone or massively diminished in the time frame im working off .

So if its £2,30 4 years from my buy in then i will happily take that thanks

Multi bagger within days quote i mean

zZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ that old rope a dope quote

One word - debt

You only have to look at high leveraged companies like hertz to see the potential impact of bad debt. Those with high leveraged debt are going to struggle for the foreseeable future

As said, I suspect Mr 13% HAS BEEN WHEELER DEALING IF U KNOW WHAT I MEAN;)

Current state of affairs with the SP is that it represents a brilliant buy in opportunity. Im in here for long haul , multi bags this one from here

Fully agree, what we need is a bit of witch dunking and open a few windows to let out the bad fart smell.

Pongs to high heaven this stock, something is a foot and it aint 12 inch

Golfer I have taken the plunge outside this share today, in the current climate we should all be doing what your doing, it’s rich pickings out there and if people are not careful oppertunities will be lost willing a share on that is never going to shift

No offence taken, but you can’t deny the fact that nothing is happening with this share when this should have started to increase by now even if it was by a small amount. I can’t present you with facts as I’m not on the inside but you can’t be that naive to not see something underhand is going on here. I know some people won’t want to acknowledge this and will become insulting but take the emotion out of this for a moment, something is a miss at present

Did exactly that today. AML and Bird instead.