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Another little Benito for the bin....off us pop.
End of life plays are not remotely economical at 50/60 as flows too small and decommissioning costs to high. Agree that technology has improved recovery by several percentage points over time but thete is a curve on that too. We have achieved as good a recovery as is likely, and all reserves tapped in last 10vyears are exposed to best in industry already. Its baked in as the saying goes.
Like I said, if the geologists say theres a 150 years of oil left they do not consider the price. The EUR rolled out to investors in the second great shale investment boom has been challenged and it looks like the EUR will arrive at about 80% of the advertised figure.
The long and short of it is in 1970 we were consuming 45mbod, it's now 100mbod and the most conservative estimates have it rising to 115/120mbod. The impending shortage is the rationale of the energy wars were in the last 20 odd years, whether cold or hot war.
Got a feeling we are all going to do very well out of this recovery play .
Don't sell yourselfs short there is still plenty left in the tank here .
I intend to hold for a really decent recovey.
By the way airports and businesses will not be opening till 1st June many businesses will not survive others will take time restarting.... this is globally. Over production of oil and a massive crash in usage.... but what about people driving their cars etc.... most countries are on lock down so people are not driving cars. chap petrol maybe, but kind of a dangling of a carrot to a donkey in shackles. granted by mid Jan when things are moving again we hope .... some of those reserves might start to get used assuming a drop in production has been agreed and implemented.
Jbatch, these figures rise and fall with price, and till now the shale basins are unprofitable at 50wti
So somethings got to give in order to get to 53 years which ain't a world apart from 40 years.
We have to acknowledge that the cost for energy will be a more significant part of our monthly outgoings or find something different,
We dont like nuclear, we dont like coal, were souring on gas and soon we will have running water during the day and candles at night.
As for wolfcamp etc, the geological survey up move their estimates up and down like a fiddlers elbow. Its staying in the ground if it ain't profitable, that's why the estimates change routinely. Then there is the sweet spots, they assume best case EUR at all times. P90. No one else does that so the figures are politically motivated by optimism.
Sorry about duplicate did not think it went
Anyway, reality is there is a lot of oil around, old wells closed up will reopen as new technology arises.... Tullow will rise on its own merits. The deal between SA, USA and Russia will probably be moved date again as Russia and SA spar. the falling oil price today shows where this is going. Tullow has risen for a few days now and as such a fall on profit taking is inevitable and of course shorters will unfortunatey have there day probably when the bell rings in the morning if oil price remains low. wti down over 7 % sure Tullow will rise again but a drop to 18 or 18 is definitely a high possibility.
Haha swampies. Everything the left accuse others of is exactly what they are guilty of but much worse.
Seriously they are gutter dwellers intend of ruining anything and everything. Totally useless
Actually, Previous predictions that would have had oil reserves completely tapped by now were wrong because both production and proved reserves increased consistently. To clarify, the amount of oil that actually exists on the planet is significantly larger than the amount of oil that we currently think we can drill. Therefore, we may have significantly more than 53 years of oil remaining if drilling technologies can improve to the point that recovering the more difficult to reach oil becomes economically feasible.
Here's an interesting chart from the U.S. Energy Information Administration that should help you visualize what the amount of oil on Earth looks like:
BP's estimates are based on reserve estimates using today's drilling technologies. One need only to look at the advent of fracking and the increase in shale oil production to realize just how much these methods can change in a relatively short period of time.
Another thing to consider is that we are still discovering massive deposits of oil that were otherwise not known of. Last November, the U.S. Geological Survey announced that it discovered the biggest deposit of untapped oil in the United States. Located in the Wolfcamp shale formation in Texas, the new oil field has an estimated average of 20 billion barrels of oil.
To put that in perspective, the Prudhoe Bay formation in Alaska-the largest producing oil field in North America to date-has only produced roughly 12 billion barrels of oil in the past 43 years. The East Texas Field, which is the biggest producing oil field in the lower 48 states, has produced just over 7 billion barrels of oil since the 1930s.
Actualy previous predictions that would have had oil reserves completely tapped by now were wrong because both production and proved reserves increased consistently. To clarify, the amount of oil that actually exists on the planet is significantly larger than the amount of oil that we currently think we can drill. Therefore, we may have significantly more than 53 years of oil remaining if drilling technologies can improve to the point that recovering the more difficult to reach oil becomes economically feasible.
Here's an interesting chart from the U.S. Energy Information Administration that should help you visualize what the amount of oil on Earth looks like:
BP's estimates are based on reserve estimates using today's drilling technologies. One need only to look at the advent of fracking and the increase in shale oil production to realize just how much these methods can change in a relatively short period of time.
Another thing to consider is that we are still discovering massive deposits of oil that were otherwise not known of. Last November, the U.S. Geological Survey announced that it discovered the biggest deposit of untapped oil in the United States. Located in the Wolfcamp shale formation in Texas, the new oil field has an estimated average of 20 billion barrels of oil.
To put that in perspective, the Prudhoe Bay formation in Alaska-the largest producing oil field in North America to date-has only produced roughly 12 billion barrels of oil in the past 43 years. The East Texas Field, which is the biggest producing oil field in the lower 48 states, has produced just over 7 billion barrels of oil since the 1930s.
Comment aimed at PDMS
Great post
Inside a decade, not remotely possible. Considering the rate of demand (not withstanding cv) there is 40 years of oil left in the ground, assuming demand remains constant. Rate of replacement doesnt keep up with demand increase so likely we will be out of oil in less than 40 years. That's why it's so critical to prevent at all costs the likes of Venezuela and Iran using their oil to better their lives. Simply put, those countries are the strategic reserve of countries like US. Imagine how many barrels of oil a burgeoning economy in Iran would consume. Iraq producing 5mbod, 8 years ago they had planned to be at 11mbod by now. Makes one wonder why they are clobbered from every direction and cant achieve even modest output gains since 2015.
Oil’s going back up because it makes the world go round and will do for decades.
Are they banning diesel cars or have I got that wrong?
Are they not pushing everyone to electric or have I got that wrong to?
Oil will be there as long as the elite want it there and based on how things are moving along that won’t be very long fella certainly not decades but it’s a fair shout to say a recovery from here will happen In oil price no doubts about that at some point, I believe we will drift lower short term on oil price or medium term until supply is fixed then you will see the real upside. At some point oil will come down and it will be night night and that will be inside a decade.
This board is now infested with swampies, Environmentalists, Eco warriors with Green hair who bang pots and pans and jump up and down znd chain themselves together generally being s nuisance. All these new Accounts are climate change eco warrior idiots. They’ve obviously been attracted by the two days on the leader board. More pain to come for you swampies. Oil’s going back up because it makes the world go round and will do for decades. I can’t see us all living in an old bus in the woods and eating acorn soup with you lot any time soon.