London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Wow what a small world bumped into a couple of Tullow Oil Engineers. Amazing coincidence. I was d down my local and I got into a conversation with couple of Kenyans. They told me that their government is just about to sign off Tullow project. Brilliant news.
Good post Vinny. As value and activist investors have bought the shares from growth investor in US shale it should change. Before growth was built into the pay of management. They got paid regardless of the devastation to the balance sheet. Now that garbage is out of their contracts. The new investors are demanding a return of capital in dividends and share buy backs. No one will fund willy nilly fracking anymore.
Even with a higher oil price you should see modest growth. But..... anything can happen. I'm holding on to my Tullow at least for the next 18 months.
Aston Martin are worth more than Lekoil Just to keep it irrelevant
Some good points in your post Vinnyoc. We have to all remember the huge dept tullow has. Out in Chiswick recently and bumped into the Tullow oil engineers. Did not fill me with a huge amount of confidence, but I am holding while oil stays above $70. Also informed me Tullow are not drilling any new oil wells at present. Need big balls to hold Tullow if you have a significant holding. Time will tell.
Most major oil companies are effected by the restrictions but the main problem for tullow was the debt. No financial institution would lend to a company with reduceing production and almost $3b in debt. They had to sell off assets to give confidence and to show they want to keep the company operational as a going concern. When this was done they could sort out the refinancing which was more important than drilling for oil. We must remember during the early months of Covid when oil hit minus figures no one was saying tullow done a bad job with the hedging. They were all saying well done to tullow. There would be no tullow only for the hedges of 2020. I believe what OPEC are doing is smart. Play the long game and don't flood the market with oil. Keep the prices between $65-75 and if it goes above that level open the taps a bit to pull it back. What they don't want is it getting too high which will make it profitable for the fracking and over the space of a month there is an increase of 2m bopd which will crash the price to $50 which is no good to anyone only customers. Then the franking stops because it's too cheap and it shoots back up again. Stability is the key to give the oil industry time to recover from last year. When you look at Total's announcement to buy back shares because of the unexpected profits from the first half of 2021 it is an indication of what we should expect by year end. When the news on Kenya is released I believe it will decide the fate of tullow. It has to go a head to bring tullow back up to the region of 100,000 bopd. Kenya is very keen for it to happen. If tullow don't take it on someone will now that the land acquisition has been almost complete. If they get it going and oil stays above $60 for the next few years until the bonds mature in 2026 they should be in a very comfortable position to repay them off. Because Kenya is mad to get oil flowing I'd say a more favourable deal for tullow could be negotiated on the construction of the pipeline. Rahul is keeping his cards close to his chest and not predicting anything that may seem hard to achieve. The shorter have realised the only way is up and had to call in help to secure a safe and controlled exit. In the next 12 months this share is only heading one way but it depends on their decision on Kenya which will be known by Christmas.
Vinny isn't part of the production issue the Opec deal? They had to throttle down. By mid 22 they should be able to pump at will.
Thank you Vinny
All you have to do is e-mail tullow. The man was very helpful and happy to help. At the end of the day we as investors have the right to know and it was his job to inform investors. By next spring tullow I'm guessing should be upto close on 70k bopd when the 4 wells are on line.
Vinn thanks for the excellent post. First post on the Tlw board with really value.
I'm in Tullow for sometime now and took some profit when I could but missed the big climb from the 30's to 60. I had sold out to use the money to average down in another stock so I could get out of it and buy back into tullow because there is real potential in tullow. There is a lot of guessing going on with hedging for 2021 and a lot of misinformation. All you have to do is e-mail them. I got this reply when I e-mailed them regarding hedging!
"Our hedged volume for 2021 is 40,000 bopd. The weighted average floor is $48/bbl and the weighted average sold call is $67/bbl.
We don’t breakdown for half years, but for the first half of the year the realised price was c.$60/bbl."
I also asked about what I thought was a discrepancy in the full year production as I thought it should be higher than the 55,000 to 61,000 bopd with the addition of to 2 extra wells and I received the response below. Maybe they are been cautious in the estimates until they have the oil out of the ground. I was also sent a link for the licence which I found helpful for working out how many bopd are added to tullow. I still believe by year end the bopd will be at the top end of the 61,000 if not slightly higher as the 2 new wells will add by my calculations over 7k extra bopd if all goes well.
"The impact of the four well campaign in Ghana this year is included in our production guidance and yes, they help to offset the natural decline of existing well stock. The first of the four wells, Jubilee producer J56, came onstream this month and the second well (J55-WI), which is a Jubilee water injector is due onstream in 3Q21.
The encouraging results of c.10,000 bopd from J56 is slightly ahead of expectations. The J55-WI well is expected to add c.8,000 bopd."
Our working interest in Jubilee is 35.48% and in TEN is 47.175%. If useful, our full licence list is available here:
I hope this information is useful to those thinking of selling, buying or already invested in Tullow.
Makes happy seem ok
Why don't you get the message you monkeys and clear off back to your Enq board? Wtf
Bladey, then why post stuff that you can’t back it up? Just like your usual ramps. You and you’re tullow holders need to admit you don’t have an argument lol..
“These are enq financials at beginning of this year, I may have to pop over to enq board and remind those holders of risks and impending maturity dates“
All sounds like playground stuff. Pulling hair next.
The issue is that the sp has bombed over the last month or so and the fundamentals say the opposite. So what is going on
You're over here thicksh*t pmsl... Jeeez how stupid are you lool
Not true Bladey,
You been sniffing mine all day ! I hear you lick too !
No ammu doggy... unlike you and you're hobo mate, we don't go around sniffing other peoples backsides lol.. here boy! PMSL
Aaww. ...January0... u wana muzzle too, diddums pmsl, c'mon boy let's get you one!
The clever fish don't bite.
Do you feel stupid, Stupid ?
Ammu, they buy and post on emotions, best we leave them alone. Their getting upset !
I'm thinking about getting one of these for our lil lost waggly tailed fella... I've heard the ENQ bb will even chip in for it!
Oil user I challenge you and all your tullow holders to come over on enq board and have a healthy debate.
Let’s compare the 2 companies unless you worried and reckon tullow is overvalued. In that instance I am sure you’ll stick to ramping Tlw in here lmao
These are enq financials at beginning of this year, I may have to pop over to enq board and remind those holders of risks and impending maturity dates, but I know common sense will prevail on the board. Were all speculating on tlw and enq, it's not like either is in very good shape
Hold both enq and tlw, so no interest seing either getting booked. But just so enq holders who dont understand their finances realise that last year they didnt pay interest off on bonds, and its accruing when not possible to do so.
Cash and net debt
The Group had $222.8 million of cash and cash equivalents at 31 December 2020 and $1,279.7 million of net debt, including PIK and
capitalised interest of $214.2 million (2019: $220.5 million, $1,413.0 million and $140.7 million, respectively).
Net debt comprises the following liabilities:
? $249.2 million principal outstanding on the £155.0 million retail bond, including interest capitalised as PIK of $39.4 million (2019:
$225.7 million and $22.1 million, respectively);
? $799.2 million principal outstanding on the high yield bond, including interest capitalised as PIK of $149.2 million (2019: $746.1 million
and $96.1 million, respectively);
? $377.3 million of credit facility, comprising amounts drawn down of $360 million and interest capitalised as PIK of $17.3 million (2019:
$475.1 million, $460.0 million and $15.1 million, respectively);
? $67.7 million on the Sculptor Capital facility, comprising amounts drawn down of $59.4 million and capitalised interest of $8.4 million
(2019: $122.9 million, $115.5 million and $7.4 million, respectively);
? $9.2 million relating to the SVT Working Capital Facility (2019: $31.9 million); and
? $nil relating to the Tanjong Baram Project Finance Facility (2019: $31.7 million).
"What a sensitive and emotional lot you are."
PMSL...Says the guy who's so insecure about his investment in Enquest, he keeps posting on the Tullow BB to pull investors!
We're not even pumping from the same basin ffs..., Not even the same continent. pmsl, what a numpty!... So explain simply why you're over here?