We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Slift, thanks again. I like to try and apportion some value (and risk) to these opportunities - even if very high level. your explanation helps greatly. cheers.
SharingGuy,
800mmboe would require nearfield exploration and developing nearfield prospects. This is currently not within development, nor proven. This part of the project would be Phase 3, which will be late life opportunities for the fields.
The 2019 development plan was looking at development over 21 years.
The first phase would be 60k bopd for 4 years before it starts declining.
The second phase will boost this to around 80k bopd for 7-8 years.
The rest of the production period will have natural decline - with production falling fast over the period.
The 2019 plan was for 560mmboe development - which at 2019 oil prices would return c. $4-5b ($2b return for Tullow)
It's a lot more complicated than your calculation below.
Tullow have license for production up to 2044 and if FID is made this year, that will be around 20 years of production, but it's more like 10-12 years of good production before natural decline takes place.
Even with natural decline, unless nearfield prospects are developed in phase 3, meaningful production will end by year 15.
"so $3b return across 27years = @$100m per year or 7p per share per year.
My maths must be wrong somewhere because these numbers are a non-starter!"
$2b across 20 years, averaging @ $100m/year, but in reality, it'll be 10-12 years of plateau production so majority of the $2b will be produced across these years so pushing to $200m/year for these years @ $55/barrel.
My expectation is that Tullow will reduce the life of meaningful production period by increasing plateau production early on and accelerating reserves.
But we'll find out soon!
Hi Slift, thanks for the reply.
if I understand you correctly 800mmboe oil @ 80000bpd = @27 years.
so $3b return across 27years = @$100m per year or 7p per share per year.
My maths must be wrong somewhere because these numbers are a non-starter!
agree with you on the financing point - expect this to be quite a challenge and much would rest on the JV partners
I think the more important concern regarding Kenya is..
how is TLW going to fund the Kenya FID @ $1.2-1.4b net development costs?
SharingGuy,
Kenya has potential to have GROSS recoverable 2C resources in excess of c. 800 mmboe (unrisked).
But my understanding is that the first phase of the development will look at three fields within Block 13T and Block 10BB. Tullow will stick to these three fields for development, but use data from the EOPS to optimise by targetting wells with the most productive with most consistent reservoir performance.
As part of the redevelopment, Tullow will be trying to both improve the first phase production whilst trying to offset opex/capex costs as well as subsequent phases.
The risked NET 2C resources for Tullow (as per 2020/2021) is 171mmboe. I estimate according to this figure, the above three fields in the first phase will be around 65mmboe (before optimisation). With optimisation, we can expect an increase to between 65-80mmboe.
Without redevelopment, the foundation phase wouldn't even payback the investment @ $55/barrel due to the pipeline build costs.
I think $30b is overshooting.
For the redeveloped Kenya project, I have an estimated return of c. $2b for Tullow @ $55/barrel, over the life of the asset - pushing to $3b should they explore and develop nearfield prospects.
All I see from y11-shx is nothing but personal attacks..
Grow up, or go to the playground.. Your worse that Jubilee..
Funny though, cause just looking and your another account that joined in Nov 2020 !!! Concentrate on your own holdings aey, don't worry what others are doing, you just look childish with your constant jibes.
I much prefer the playful 90p @ 3PM that seeing your vile attacks.
No I won't ask myself anything. Slift can do what the h*ll he/she/non-binary likes. Last year Slift sold and I held as I didn't agree and was prepared to take the risk. Same thing will happen if Slift sells at 56p and starts talking smack, I'll continue holding and responding with my rampy opinion.
When share price goes 56p and Slift sell and you see his true colours you will ask yourself why you are defending him and worse if Tlw drops and he sells at a loss! Slift is good for nothing his options aren’t welcome here sell and take your losses with you.
We all have our different opinions and agenda's, but why bash someone who is promoting the share price even if you don't like them. Yes, wasn't too impressed with some of Slift's deramping last year when they did a 360 in opinion, but did get some useful information from their posts in the early part of the year when I first invested in Tullow. Let's just be civil with holders who want the price to rise and if they sell and start talking smack, well then it's fair game.
Yes Slift can you give me a analyst of why 100-150 please because when you sold at 30p you said it was Tlw was worth 25p and now you have bought back at 55p you say it’s worth 100-150 is your brain broken?
As the majors take a bashing its clear Tullow is under the radar.Can only be good news.
forgot to note - tlw = 50% only
Hi Slift, have you tried to value Kenya asset? (i ask directly as you have provided many analysis previously).
I read somewhere that Kenya = 1.5b barrels in shallow reservoirs and possibility to extract 80000 per day
- so at @ $60 per barrel - $90b - less capex and opex etc- lets say $40 barrel all in over life of asset = $60b......... so $30b to play with - divide by shares in issue (1.5b) @$20 per share over life of asset (50yrs at 80000 bpd).
would be interested to know your thoughts?
Haven’t you sold Slift? Quicker you do quicker we can get back to business. As I say to all gamblers never expect unless expect the unexpected lmao
I simply don't want to go on again as I don't understand your English. A lot of filter buttons to be clicked. Great to be helpful, take what you want, I don't really mind.
What a turn of events.
Expecting an upgrade to credit from Moodys when Tullow finally releases results WITHOUT ANY MATERIAL UNCERTAINTY.
Just a thought re the influx of new contributors during Nov. In early Nov Moody’s downgraded TLW’s credit rating. Maybe coincidence but who knows.
Whatever you are drinking, smoking or taking is clearly not something you get over the counter. Ps British English is simply referred to the English Language... glad we cleared that one up.
Take it easy over the weekend, keep it recreational and don't you be steering towards those criminal purposes.
Flyover..Criminal purposes ?
I think maybe you are confusing chat board accounts with financial accounts.
Not to worry onward and hopefully upward.
Even you are interested I have no obligation to give you an answer. As I mentioned before, I only had one board account opened in November. Other account opened in the same date is not mine. I don't need a lot of accounts to cover myself for criminal purposes.
Flyover.....Out of interest why did you decide to join this board in November 2020
Socks
What date is it? A cat is very smart to know it and understand its owner's gossips. It is very funny when someone tries to blame someone's level of British English with their own English. The language you use determines who you are. Be decent, regardless you are shorters or not. You don't have to make money in this way. More or less money doesn't decides who you are.
If you didn't like British people so much why you appeared here almost everyday. This is not your own discussing board, and why you keep coming out from that glory Discord Group Board to ****ed on someone here and there on a British board.
There are only two of you, and we are not alone.
Thanks Slift...
@Stockbuster,
https://gyazo.com/d4449ff2f09c1ac1aa539711e1d02bf6
https://gyazo.com/6d880f343fd6ace0db65d3063810b9ad
@scrodingerscat,
"And if it doesn't translate you will find oil companies doing share buybacks and paying out chunky dividends.And if it doesn't translate you will find oil companies doing share buybacks and paying out chunky dividends."
Yup, but will that persuade investment from investors? I'm not too sure.
Any confidence for investment in oil and gas will be from sustained oil prices of $70+/barrel.
Either way, provides opportunities for oil companies to reduce debt significantly and become more sustainable from FCF alone. But even then, i'm sure people are going to be chasing FAANG stocks until there is no more cheap borrowed money.
Slift this exact point has been highlighted by the pundits many times, many an article has been written on it. But the market is generally not driven by it's morals and some producers can argue more environmentally sustainable futures than others. It's not money at all costs by all means but this will change when quarter three earnings, turn to full year results that show significant PE ratios and EPS out of whack with market capitalisation. And if it doesn't translate you will find oil companies doing share buybacks and paying out chunky dividends.
Some argue look at coal, well oil is not coal as there is no plastic replacement on the horizon. Oil companies operating in oil friendly countries have one last huzzah in them. Will I be holding equity in oil in 10 years time... unlikely, but given the rapid and continued industrialisation in Asia, Africa and South America the world hasn't reached peak oil yet. On the flipside it does appear to have peaked there abouts in western Europe.