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This was OB's first sentence on here ...
"I missed the TG interview and was wondering... did he give any recent information on gas flows and gas composition at the site? "
Only one other poster has ever been concerned with the gas composition - you know that stuff that generates site electricity for the last 5 or 6 years from Selemo, and the dodgy stuff that has been flared at Lesedi for how long?
Amazing coincidence. Another coincidence is that there are so many donkeys on the Tlou shareholder register. We are probably all guilty of that.
But would the real Mr donkey Please Stand Up...
As for the pretend wannabe donkeys, their obsession with thinking one person operates here under multiple alias is endlessly entertaining.
MM, I know FA about Hydrogen production. But I also know if it was as simple and cheap as you imply, every donkey and his ass would be into commercial production. So I am happy to be guided by another donkey that says it is a new industry and a new market in Botswana that currently is largely non-existent; and that if requires decent amounts of Capex and investment to get up and running; and that it will be minimum 3 years before we see anything substantial on Hydrogen business from Tlou. There will however be endless hours spent talking about it between now and then.....
And let me remind all Donkeys here - Hydrogen is a diversionary tactic to deflect all other donkeys from the reality of pathetically slow progress on the company’s stated primary strategy of pursuing Gas to Power via the 100MW RFP pilot project.
Don’t get sucked into the vortex of donkey ****.
I have been investigating OB's claim that is a continuous process and came back here to find MM disagrees (which is what I concluded). The temperatures required for Solar electrolysis are trivial compared to most other methods. e.g. Water electrolysis can operate between 50–80 °C, while steam methane reforming requires temperatures between 700–1100 °C. That appears to me to be the comparison between Solar and CBM hydrogen?
The downside of producing hydrogen has always been the value of the electricity used inefficiently to make hydrogen - the benefits were questionable when compared to selling the electricity itself.
That makes sense, and I raised that weeks ago.
Unwanted Solar power during off-peak is ideally suitable even if it is only 70% efficient! All profit.
And the hydrogen seems to have other uses and is not restricted to producing electricity.
i.e.
Important Uses of Hydrogen
Gas welding
Automobile fuel.
In petroleum refinery
Ultraviolet lamps
Production of electricity
As a reducing agent
Potentiometry and Chemical analysis
Structural identification
In gas chromatography
In hot balloons
Rocket fuel for space programs
and for completeness , perish the thought, Mass destructive bombs
DTE, I am not sure there is duplicity on here but the style of OB and Donkey is incredibly similar - but maybe more significantly imho , calling me "Mr Smith" is exclusive to those two? And they both did that whilst they were filtered - Donkey still is!
Both are obsessed with Tlou capex , both miscomprehend the same points , so is it one hell of a coincidence?
Whizzer, My gut feeling on why the Poles and Wires have not started is this - Originally the company had agreed finance with their preferred lender for the 2MW PPA and as the they already have the PPA in place, it was considered a formality by the company. The cash raise was effectively the company’s contribution. During the due diligence process the preferred lender changed their criteria to having a 10 MW PPA in place as a requirement. Obviously if the company still would like to use this preferred lender, they’ll have to wait until they are awarded the 10 MW PPA or alternatively negotiate with another lender for the 2MW PPA. Tony’s comment about two potential lenders not requiring award of the 10MW PPA kind of supports this notion.
That’s my view, anyway. I think that good intensions abounded when the cash raised was announced and there wasn’t any kind of agenda to deceive shareholders. If what I think is accurate, It’s very difficult for the company to comment on this in way that appeases shareholders without potentially upsetting those with whom they are negotiating with.
This caught my eye, Hydrogen stocks on ASX from late April. There are 7 'hydrogen' plays and this is their performance:
'...However the stocks already on the bourse have big ambitions too and investors are evidently confident.
The average performance in the past 12 months is a gain of 595 per cent and even in the last week a solid 34 per cent...'
https://stockhead.com.au/energy/hydrogen-here-are-all-the-asx-stocks-in-it-and-who-will-soon-be-joining-the-club/
OldBalllie - you are much mistaken.
Small scale hydrogen production from solar and electrolysis of water is 'doable' from just a few hundred dollars.
Nor is it a continuous process. When the current is switched off (eg solar not available at night) the process just stops. In fact this is why hydrogen is much touted as an energy store - the hydrogen produced during daylight can then be used to produce overnight electricity in a fuel cell. Or used to power cars, lorries, ships and whatever. That is why it is being hailed as a future fuel and for energy storage.
As and when Tlou get round to detailing what progress they have made it could and should be very positive for us here.
Mr Smith, the process of making hydrogen is a continuous process. Can't stop / start it.
This means solar as energy-input into the process, has challenges. Solar would need significant storage to make it through the night. Possible of course but CAPEX-hungry.
Mr Smith, the process of making hydrogen is a continuous process. Can't stop / start it.
This means solar as energy-input into the process, has challenges. Solar would need significant storage to make it through the night. Possible of course but CAPEX-hungry.
Thanks for the link mrmoagi:
https://www.mmegi.bw/index.php?aid=90317&dir=2021/june/18
Looks like the company twitter account already referenced it back on June 15th:
https://twitter.com/TlouEnergy/status/1404885507260272644
I have it from a good source that not long ago mm was selling hard the virtues of the orapa tender being almost a certainty in his closed group, does make you wonder if in fact he is on the company’s payroll!
Dte, why have the poles and wires not been started yet?
So is the ppa for gas to power, solar, hydrogen?
Are we now to assume a hydrogen project will be happening first?
So many unknowns surround this company and project!
Great post DTE, I see the ones who should be inpatients are getting a bit impatient.
It has been a bit of a wait but not for too much longer I hope.
Good luck to all, hold on to the golden tickets.
Actually a well constructed strategy brief by MM. let’s start with:
“And there’s this: exporting power via a single line (to Serowe) and a single customer (the BPC) makes Tlou reliant on infrastructure and entities outside of their control”.
Gas to power and solar to power - via a single 66kv line to connect to the grid..... Let me ask this then - How many years have the Promoters here extolled the virtues of grid connection and selling to SAPP...?
That was going to be Tlou’s Holy Grail achievement..... And now, set out in blinding simplicity - the previously endlessly hyped amazing strategy is pulled apart in one simple sentence by one of the company’s most ardent social media promoters.
Let me remind everyone here - the management team has been repeatedly disingenuous with their claims and assertions and announcements over the past many years. And what goes around; comes around........ I wonder at what velocity all this will be travelling when we are on final approach .....
DTE - get a life mate. And a brain. One with more originality than your present one.
Whizzer,
This is where I think you don’t see the big picture. With the 10MW PPA and financing sorted, there will be a route to market, all the red tape will be dealt with and we will be generating around $10 million PA. Not a massive amount of money admittedly, but it demonstrates the potential on offer. At that stage and considering the enormous assets we have, I think this will be a $150m+ company. So even with your assumed 1 billion shares issued to get to that stage, the SP would be at many multiples of today’s price. Also the company will then be a fantastic opportunity for a major energy company to buy 'off the shelf' and ready to be scaled up. The real company value will then be realised when they come sniffing around. What did Tony said before to achieve shareholder value, It’s all about joining up the dots He’s got form in this area, he’s done it twice before.
Haha, I was wondering when MM would re-energise himself. Am surprised he didn’t post this article;
https://www.mmegi.bw/index.php?aid=90317&dir=2021/june/18
It hasn't lost its identity Whizzer.
It has been pushed into limbo through no fault of its own making.
Whilst recovering in a hospital bed what is wrong with making plans for when you get out?
Crutches, zimmer frame , wheelchair, scooter, change the car to an automatic perhaps, a van to take the scooter etc etc etc be prepared as the boy scouts used to be.
If TLOU closed their eyes and stuck to CBM ideas I think those of you who criticise them for not sticking to their original plan would be the very people who'd criticise them for passing up lucrative alternative options.
The big question is are we inpatients or outpatients , and for how long?
MM was discussing CBM/Hydrogen whilst I thought Solar/Hydrogen was the way to go.
No poles and greenness issues to consider or have I missed something obvious there?
Or is it simply TG's much preferred route?
We cannot turn off Solar if we don't need the power , so it makes sense to me to use it in Hydrogen production rather than waste it or sell it cheaply or worse into an off-peak market?
I think I saw in Europe some companies were paying distributors to take their unwanted power?
The company has totally lost its identity!
By the time we get revenue coming in from god knows what project they decide to go with, we will be looking at a billion shares or more in issue!
Where is the value coming from for shareholders?
Its great that for further down the line to diversify to other options available but for gods sake get the original plan in order first!!!
DTE, ja. I guess it is easier to respond with the "same identity" story than to the content of the post.
For the record... I'm not Mrmoagi. Not Donkey either. But if it makes you happy... knock yourself out
I think you can sum up OldBalllie's post in 4 words - or so he hopes.
Mrmoagi, can I give you a bit of advice? If you're going to start posting as OldBallie under the pretence that you're not the same person, you're going need to change the way in which you write. The 'pair' of you pausing your sentences with '....' is a bit of dead giveaway!
MM... in principle yes. The hydrogen market is a market of great interest for most energy companies. No beef with anything you say about that but always keeping in mind that the tech for methane-to-clean-hydrogen is pretty leading edge / bleeding edge still.
I've got a problem with the other word in the heading though... the "pivoting" word. We've been a CBM exploration company - then pivoting to a CBM-to-power company - then pivoting to a CBM-to-power plus solar-on-the-side company - now pivoting to a CBM-to-power plus solar-on-the-side with hydrogen-thrown-in company.
My good friend Mr. Smith sees this as massively positive because you know... there are all these different markets we can choose from. LOL!
Thing is... it costs a lot of money to open up a new market. Lots and lots of it. The decision makers in the company have not even opened up the gas market in Botswana (CNG to industrial users or Orapa) before they started opening up the power market in Botswana and now we're heading towards opening up the hydrogen market before the gas market or the power market is open.
Dunno... where is the cash going to come from for this exercise? Who is going to invest into a company that keeps pivoting away from that which it recently defined as its core business?
I’d like them to concentrate on the gas to power project they’ve poured millions into!! Start the poles and wires like they said they were going to!!
When you look at the recent presentation, it can be seen that Tlou’s laydown yard in Serowe (found at 22°24'49.5"S 26°44'13.1"E on Google Maps) has recently been cleared. It’s from this location that they propose to distribute the Hydrogen, which would indicate that something is an fact happening on that front.
...is very smart business.
At heart Tlou are a methane exploration and early stage development company. That is where TG made his name and fortune in Oz in earlier days. However because Botswana has no CBM industry and track record, selling a proven asset (to the stage of Selemo and Lesedi flaring gas) is not possible. The asset (all that gas) must be shown to have a route to market. Since formation, it has always been a given that this is via methane combustion, gas-to-power with export via poles and wires to the BPC.
However this has been fraught with hold ups - several cancelled PPA processes, delayed PPA processes because of bizarre technical drafting, changes of Gov, personnel and emphasis, and, finally, another 18 months arising from COVID. All this to get a 2MW PPA and now very close to a 10MW. And there's this: exporting power via a single line (to Serowe) and a single customer (the BPC) makes Tlou reliant on infrastructure and entities outside of their control.
There has never been a realistic alternative monetarisation method, at least until now.
In the meantime the Hydrogen Economy has and is and will be developing very fast in the coming years. Google it.
Tlou now have a second option to monetarise the CBM other than gas-to-power down wires, plus capitalise on the abundant solar at Lesedi and all the water from the coal seam dewatering. They can either pyrolyse the methane to make pure Carbon plus Hydrogen, and/or use solar to electrolyse water to produce Hydrogen and Oxygen gases. One is carbon neutral (Blue Hydrogen) the second is super clean Green Hydrogen.
This is explained in the company's Hydrogen Presentation of May.
Pyrolysing the methane gives then a second route to market for the asset, the 3tcf of methane resource, (via carbon and hydrogen) and away from their reliance on the poles and wires and the BPC.
As an investor I think that is very smart. The company's tweets have been heavy on the suggestion that a hydrogen project is being developed. Good.
If the company can develop a short, sharp hydrogen project then we are very much closer to being able to capitalise on all that potential.