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So you don't believe Botswana will support us in providing CBM or Solar?
2Mw is $10M and 10Mw is $30M and those estimates were made before our cash from the placing was raised.
I find it too difficult to ignore the Moagi/BERA/TLOU statements that funding from BPC is going to happen as soon as a meeting is possible. If it isn't true why lie about it? Botswana need power and lies deny the urgency for alternative proposals from other potential providers in a clearly open market. Sorry, I cannot swallow that.
My prediction is that they won't get the funding that they need. Anyone investing in that funding is merely taking a gamble.
They will run out of cash soon.
My blinkers are off brad, maybe you need to take yours off as tg is not as good as you think!!!
I’ve been invested and reading since 2016 Whizzer, and the thing that sticks in my mind is the taxi joke, many a true word spoken in jest.
Take the blinkers off Whizz.
Just suppose TG did as you suggest and got a distribution network up and ready years ago, AND then Gas flows and dewatering had none of the problems were are enduring?
You'd be ranting how useless they were to not foresee that we'd need much heavier duty poles/pylons/Kvs and planning permissions etc etc
I'm sure that dewatering a virgin site does not take a predictable period or we'd have heard from the experts how long it is going to take. And if they exist TG may well have got the info from them anyway?
And that ignores Covid .........
Magnet, appiamma demonstrates an ignorance of not being able to see why long term holders here are annoyed at the lack of progress. Anyone in Tony gilbys position and with his knowledge would be able to acquire the permits needed especially with the time he’s had to get them, getting the permits is not an impossible task for anyone, appiamma makes it sound as though it’s an amazing feat obtaining them (it is not). This project is now 2 or 3 years behind schedule because of the path that Tony has taken us down, yes that’s right 2-3 years because they didn’t have a plan b! We don’t know where we are with regards to funding as colm said it was close 7months or so ago, it’s just really poor management and as for us being sold, what a load of bulls&@t, maybe in a couple of years if the bod ever manage to get the funding, drill more wells, get solar off the ground, get a signed ppa!!! We might be bought then, but can’t see it happening any sooner. This why long term holders are disappointed with how things have turned out because all the early hype and promise have massively failed to materialise. Tony is in charge, so the blame falls at his feet. This has been a massive disappointment for all invested!!!
It would be nice of the company to actually state what those figures means, in they have 8 trillion cubic feet of gas, and that equates to X million people using Y cubic feet of gas each so will last Z years.
Here’s the wiki explanation of 1P, 2P & 3P for those that have never looked into it
these reserve categories are totaled up by the measures 1P, 2P, and 3P, which are inclusive of all reserves types:
"1P reserves" = proven reserves (both proved developed reserves + proved undeveloped reserves).
"2P reserves" = 1P (proven reserves) + probable reserves, hence "proved AND probable."[2]
"3P reserves" = the sum of 2P (proven reserves + probable reserves) + possible reserves, all 3Ps "proven AND probable AND possible."[3][4][5]
New proven reserves are commonly added by new field discoveries. Reserves growth also commonly occurs in previously existing fields, as the characteristics of the reservoir become better understood, as fields are extended laterally, or new oil and gas reservoirs are found in existing fields. Reserve growth may also take place due to technological and economic changes.
Yes it was a shame those impressive figures came out just after the original PPA was knocked back. The were lost in the disappointment and have never had the impact they should have
Pretty certain they are more than confident having 1P, 2P and 3P figures for a few of their fields, which is 3rd party verification, nobody thought it would be so difficult to dewater, but having those figures is what’s kept me invested all these years.
Magnet, personally I believe they are convinced there is a lot of gas there, and that it will eventually flow. I think the dewatering process has taken them by surprise, but this is not necessarily a bad thing; they don't have a crystal ball to predict this - every play is different. It just meant a change of strategy - a good one imo and one that demonstrates sound management and an alignment with shareholder concerns.
Thanks Appiamma, excellent post, I know we are flaring gas, would be nice to actually hear that they can produce at least 2MW with that gas, and making up the shortfall wIth Solar seems like a great idea whilst we wait for the dewatering to hopefully increase what we can from gas. Look forward to revenue but don’t think there’s much chance we will ever get to cash in our options chips, I’ve been in this share years and know how slowly things have progressed.
Firstly, welcome Magnet – I understand your frustration, but don’t write this off just yet.
You hear a lot on this BB about how the BoD has done nothing, how useless they are and how overpaid. Lots of comments of where’s the PPA, where’s the gas and where’s the funding. Many of these posts are fuelled by the SP performance and willingly disregard the significant progress the company has made. They fail to recognise the company’s strategy, how they are looking to minimise costs, keep debt to a minimum, navigate the immense bureaucracy, getting permits and approvals, building strong foundations without crippling the company in preparation for ultimately putting up the for sale sign. They demonstrate an ignorance of the technicalities of CBM in general and those specific to Lesedi, an inability to take a pragmatic view of the difficulties the company has faced, and rarely give credit where credit is due. TG has invested a lot of his own cash here – he will soon own 6.6% of the company - that shows commitment and confidence imo.
The company has effectively stated they have proved concept and they believe the project is now de-risked. With that in mind I see little reason to continue dewatering and wasting energy until we are connected to the grid. They are working with Mott MacDonald to design the 66kv 100km transmission line. A globally renowned specialist in hybrid energy projects, who advise the BG in their development of an energy regulator and work with BPC. This is very encouraging indeed and it makes me wonder how much input they had in our strategy development.
They have decided upon a staged pathway for funding and development. This is sensible. They are close to having everything in place to proceed.
1.They have the regulatory approvals for interim the 2MW PPA – they are waiting to meet the BPC to sign and this is not TLOU’s fault.
2. EIA approval for power station site and transmission line. Also, Serowe Sub-Land Board approval for transmission line wayleave application, subject to compensation agreements.
3.They have the electric generation licence (EGL) from BERA for the 2MW hybrid project at Lesedi for sale to BPC
4. They have the mining licence to produce gas until 2042
5. EIA approval for production all necessary upstream operations and downstream development of 20MW gas-fired and 20MW solar power generation.
Though progress has been slow, they have achieved much more than most would have. The power line I believe is the last piece that will fully unlock the full potential here, and it can be achieved relatively cheaply. We can install solar and start to generate revenue and unlock more funding to progress the project. At the same time drill more wells so we can dewater more effectively whilst generating power. The 10MW PPA will happen.
How far down this road we get before we are sold, I don’t know, but I think sooner rather than later. GLA
I don't think anyone would be surprised if this folds but BoD supported the recent Placing to their credit. TG has a fair bit of skin in this game and his record to date is good. Just 'write them down to nil mentally' as you have and wait and see, Magnet3D.
For all our sakes I hope we shall be pleasantly surprised.
Finally after reading this board for many years, I invested after a poster on SXX called Shanks Pony tipped this share
, I have registered as a user.
The only reason I’ve registered is to Filter, sick to my back teeth of reading utter garbage that has zero to do with this share. Don’t get me wrong, I feel sorry for clearly Ill old men, but I read this board to try gain some insight into TLOU and it’s been totally ruined by ramblings about anything other than the share.
Keep up the good work MM, Whizzer and anyone else that posts about the company, fingers crossed they will wake up one day and actually do something, though Ive written this off as folding before long tbh