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Well Morris? Multiple routes to market and 12-15p by …..
I guess there is a quarter end ahead soon so they will need to get some sort of story ready for us all again. Danny in the Bush progress, Syngen progress towards raising funds and IPO (Tlou’s quarterly progress is now waiting on a 3rd party partner to raise money to work with Tlou - brilliant); 3 more months of Smith buying shares to retain his frequent trader status (yeah that has a chance of being included); PPA is tantalisingly close (still); relations with Govt and Ministry were further advanced during the quarter; Miner had to eat his shorts due to over-optimism (yet again); Twitterati on Tlou are bickering amongst themselves as reality sets in; ….
Feel free to add your own favourites chumps.
Morris just tomoro left man. Originally 8p prediction, followed by a rethink to 12–15 pence.
So are we in for a stellar day tomoro ????
Legend in your own mind Smith. Try just not posting for a day, then another, then maybe a week. Only you thinks that posting your personal traumas adds to this board. They don’t; they have nothing to do with the investment case in Tlou and frankly the reason this board is a crock of **** is very largely down to the BS that you post.
Just zip it for a while.
My 3.1p looks pessimistic perhaps?
But 8p by Xmas suggests upwards from 3.1p rather than down.
Considering this board , and decided much of the irritation directed at me from people that matter, is directly and indirectly because I feed moagi and whizzer replies. I shut whizzer up, after he put his foot in his mouth , he's lucky it wasn't my right foot!
Today's posts are priceless , challenging MM because he is not prepared to join our irate triumvirate!
I have been unsuccessfully trying to take MM's approach for months hoping they'd dry up, (it should have been clear I got it right over the weekend and Monday, two of my favourites posting) , I hope is that the other two in the triumvirate will FLICK off if I can limit my posts.
There is no way we will be 10p plus by the end of august!
Mm is just trying to work some magic here, like he has in the past.
Come on then mm what happened to the orapa tender being in the bag? Please enlighten us!
So MM - do you still reckon 10+p is a realistic and achievable price in the next month?
What you are basically saying is - there is going to be a flurry of activity in the next 30 days or so. And whilst I personally will not hold you responsible for the preciseness of your ‘boast’, trust me old chum ….. if pretty much nothing happens share price wise in the next 40 or so days, you simply are not ever ever never going to hear the end of it / me !!
Well, at 12p + something would have gone very well and all kinds of options would likely be available to Mr Gilby. The company would be worth in excess of £75m after all.
2 routes to market - I will settle for progress on 1 route to market rather than clap trap about plans about plans….
Would you envisage Tony tapping the market below or above 12p ?
At least you have the 2p part right.
Bob999 - it was 12p by end August but who knows it could be this month! Feel free, whatever....
Interesting that Donkey didn't take issue with the 'two routes to market' argument. Perhaps a light bulb moment for him. Meanwhile anyone can overlay TLOU and NatGas Futures and see the correlation for themselves, notably since Q3, 2019. The rationale is that in optimistic periods the market prices in the development of our gas assets. The correlation breaks down following fund raises, for the obvious reverse reason. Now gas prices are soaring and we could well see not 1 but 2 routes to market for our gas assets - gas-to-power via poles and wires, and the H2 project. Hence the correlation could be restored. I'm watching.
Meanwhile I see 2 other ways of benchmarking TLOU's potential SP gains:
Firstly the effect of the 'temporary' 2MW of April 2020. On that the SP soared from 1.50p to 5.00p in under 2 weeks, a gain of 233%. That was on 2MW. What could be the gain on the full 10MW - a conservative 2x 233% or 466%, perhaps?
Secondly, from this April, the 7 Hydrogen plays on ASX had gained an average of 595% in the preceding 12 months. Tlou could soon join them and become the 8th.
Taking Friday's 2.35p close, a 466% gain on a 10 MW PPA (Route 1, gas-to-power, poles and wires) would see 13.3p.
A 595% gain on a credible Hydrogen project (Route 2, H2 private sector?) would see us a 16.3p
I'm wondering what the combined effect of both a 10MW PPA and a Hydrogen Project might be. Anyway, 12p doesn't seem unreasonable for just 1 project.
https://stockhead.com.au/energy/hydrogen-here-are-all-the-asx-stocks-in-it-and-who-will-soon-be-joining-the-club/
Yeah Whizz, be fair to TG and Bots Govt please. Everyone there is trying their best and Covid isn’t their fault; it just happened. And now we all just have to live with it; accept it is going to paralyse the workings of Bots Govt and civil service. And just as soon as Tony can resume getting frequent flier mileage, he will be on his way to the Karoo to kick ass and get things all sorted out…
Tony is the only man for the job!!
My word, I was so excited typing this message I almost found myself believing my own BS
Whizzer, bE fair !
Tg is taking his annual wage over 4 years , and the other directors over 2 years!
Will TG achieve in 4 years what other CEO’s achieve in 1 year? I will let you answer because you are possibly the only person who might not think differently to the rest of us with shares that say yes!
Of course I would happily post an apology here if this reaches 12p by end of the month, but the likelihood of that happening would mean the bod actually getting off of their asses and doing something proactive to benefit the shareholders, so no chance IMO!
3 years or so of absolutely no progress and you think this reaches 12p in a month lol, nice ramp though mm!!!
We have a board that are comfortable taking their wage without producing anything for it!!!
They are one of the worst performing boards on aim IMO!!
I will help Whizz eat anything needed here. Just imagine how many sellers there are lining up at 6p an 8p and then 10p ….. Any price strength like MM has ‘predicted’ will also result in a fund raise ….
Gas futures correlation by an exploration company in an African country that produces no gas my donkey ass!
Agree 100% DtE, if we can manage to secure the PPA then it's game on. I believe it's still moving along well, albeit very slowly.
Fingers crossed.
Whizzer, are you prepared to eat a massive slice of humble pie if he's proved to be right? I certainly think the SP will be much nearer 10p than 2p once the RNS for the 10MW PPA award drops, which could happen at any time. There should also be another significant rise in the SP once financing is agreed, assuming the level of dilution is not horrendous. That is completely ignoring the Orapa tender
Thanks for the detailed reply MM.
I appreciate your thoughts and the constructive thoughts of all others on the forum.
I've never hidden my frustrations but am still hopeful we can move forward.
Thanks again.
What a load of bull!!
Hey Thornback - I'm convinced by the '2 routes to market' argument. Up until now the sole business plan has been gas-to-power via poles and wires into the BPC grid. With slow progress until now on the PPA (Botswana and COVID determined), the market has given little value to our gas reserves and hence put the SP where it is. That could and should change. AIUI the Botswana Gov are driving hard for new shovel-ready projects and everything starts with power, hence I expect movement on the PPA.
Secondly, and in a completely new route to market for that gas, Tlou have been voluble about developing a 'Hydrogen Project'. We don't know what form this will take BUT whatever shape it does come in will mean they can monetarise the gas assets without poles and wires and, and here's the kicker, very possibly via the private sector, avoiding the pitfalls experienced in the protected PPA process.
This chance/possibility/likelihood has been completely missed by the market and hence not reflected in the SP at all.
That, I'm prepared to bet, will change. When it does, and perhaps both the PPA and H Project land in short order, the SP could surge.
Elsewhere I have been watching Natural Gas futures surge. Going back 3+ years Tlou has had an interesting correlation with those futures, except immediately following the 2.20p and 3.50p placings. Should this correlation be re-established, ie by the company's gas reserves being revalued as a result of news on 2 routes to market, Tlou's SP could revalue to 10p. Add in some frothiness and you get 15p before settling at 12p. Hence my rethink.
For me a 10mw PPA being awarded is the only way this can move to 12p.
Eveything crossed as the LTH's deserve some good news.
MM
I hope you know something the rest of us don’t and your prediction is right.
I’m still bearish until something is announced but I just don’r see anything any time soon. Would love to be proved wrong if it meant the sp moved north.
Is that just a gut feeling MM or is there a reason for your gestimate..?
Cheers
I've had a rethink.
12p at the end of August, having tested 15p+
Bang on the money Py494
I'll go with where we are now, 2.35p, and hope the next PPA award, and/or funding deal happens in time to make that look dumb.
I’d put my money on the first two guesses being the extremes.
I had to smile when I saw SB entered and flagged his post as NO OPINION :0)
MM was predictably Strong Buy but at 8p in August I reckon at his price there might just be a few big sells.
MM expects progress on Hydrogen or Solar,Hydrogen and poles, or Orapa or Lesedi gas flows and poles/ wires commitment.
SB expects no progress on anything and bad news on dewatering and funding?
I’m in the middle so 0.1p below my break even point. Ignoring that 3.1p but 8p by Xmas.