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Sold half my holding this morning.
I read this a few years ago and have since been very concious of the dewatering progress and aquifer strength. Haven't had an update as yet that has resolved my concern:
'Water rates should peak within the first few years and decline thereafter, unless the aquifer is extremely strong or the number/spacing of producing wells is insufficient to depressure the reservoir.'
From https://petrowiki.org/PEH:Coalbed_Methane
Olda, I don't think the ship has a hole in it , far less sinking.
But I no longer expect it to be plain sailing within the timescale I envisaged.
Lesedi #3 and #4 are clearly not expected to flow by 31st Jan or they would have delayed the RNS beyond today.
So how long is it going to be? Will it ever flow properly?
If there was good news at Mamba, I feel it would have been the focus of the RNS but what did they do?
They drag in Solar! Boomslang being kept for future RNS I suppose?
It seems certain they will run out of money before Lesedi reaches operational flows so there will be a placing ( against everything TG wishes or has stated). Looking at the sp today I am encouraged that the price is 4p+. I sold one lot when it was in the 3.9s and I thought it was heading down 39 steps rather than up as it has? I got 4.07, 4.01 and 4.099 for my trades so not great.
I've put a grand into ARS and am up £7.99 on them. I'm expecting my broker to send me a greetings card to congratulate me on the change of colour.
My confidence in TLOU stemmed from my faith in TG. No faith no confidence. But those flows are still very possible and the price will treble if they do imho. I reserve my stake until there is evidence that Solar is not our future.
Tlou need to explain what's going on here and tell the truth. The share price has dropped from 17p to the current dismal sp and it's not good enough. I as a shareholder want an interview and a damn good honest explanation of the current state of affairs?
You may well be right Brad, in which case I will lose the lot, but I shall stay with the sinking ship. Maybe Sekaname will reverse in on the cheap!
Couldn't find the words for you BTS, but you have been on my mind. I slept in this morning so it was gone 10am by the time I saw the RNS.
ASX was looking ok last night when I went to sleep. TLOU seem to have a tight ship in Australia or the price would have fallen.
I was watching the same things as you, and I did not see much to worry about, believing they were not being economic with the truth , which was a huge mistake now today's RNS is out.
I can only assume they thought that 633 squadron was going to suddenly open up the gas flows and keeping quiet on their worries that it was not flowing at all well could be hidden from us.
It is now a race to get the gas before they need another placing. Yesterday I'd have bet on the former, today I have bet on the latter. I sold up my AIM shares because I don't believe is staying in a broken marriage.
I am thinking of investing in Russian stocks - betting on finding an honest known crook rather than finding an honest director on AIM.
We were all convinced this was a sinking ship but Brad kept on telling us it wasn't and we were fools not to look at what's been said in podcasts and previous RNSs.Then he sells half his shares.Who is he Tidd .
I may have lost a lot of money but Brad seems to have lost his love affair with TG.
As with my usual luck I missed the RNS as I was taking my mother to hospital so as with SXX my gut feeling was correct but once again did nothing about it.A fool and his money is easily parted springs to mind.
My retirement now looks truly goosed but that's greed for you I probably would have had a decent retirement with all the money I've lost.
Thanks Olda but I cannot share your optimism, faith is a very strong element in my investing.
I have sold over half my stock and the whole lot would have gone if ASX was open.
I was not a Colm fan in the early days, but warmed to him , more fool I.
The reason? If you read these paragraphs they do not even confirm the flow rates are above the initial 20 mcfd. Without that trust I reckon it is concievable they are up to 20mcfd lower (none) but have been over 40mcfd. My Systems Analysis training means I look at the logic behind the information most of the time. They need a crumb of comfort for this rns, so if the lowest reading was greater than 20mcfd , I think they would have told us. My hope was #4 was a strong well - they could have said #4 has reached x mcfd - but they did not. I am gutted.
I am considering Asiamet so I'll warn you now so you can get out of there before I apply my kiss of death.
Those 2 paras are ....
"The Company previously announced initial gas flow rates of approximately 20 Mscfd (thousand standard cubic feet per day) from each of Lesedi 3 and Lesedi 4. The Company is aiming for a minimum sustained gas flow rate in the region of 80-100 Mscfd from each production pod.
Since the initial rate announcement, gas flow rates have continued to fluctuate both up and down with periodic short-term rates observed which have been much higher than those initially announced. The Company will not be in a position to announce an increased rate until such time that higher levels are sustained and confirmed by our advisors. "
Hi Brad,
Don't despair here. Remember this is new in Botswana so there is no other to compare the flow with. It is entirely possible that because the find is enormous, there is so much water and gas to escape that it will take a very long time to get a steady flow reading. It is highly frustrating (as is the pace of the Gov't there) but I still feel this could come good.
Fully understand your position Whizzer , the RNS is exactly what you predicted and totally opposite to what I expected.
I wish you good luck and hope we get a share of that luck one of these days. USOP's chief was Irish and was not be trusted, I am running out of nationalities to believe in. How many stocks do I need to buy to find an honest one?
Whizzer there is no guarantee that this will come good as the company themselves point out so it's always down to individual risk assessments. Like Brad I thought SXX was a surefire winner and we all know what happened there.
Good luck with any future investments.
Whizzer - sorry to see you go.
Let us know what price you get, for the record.
Brad you’ll be glad as I’m selling up after that rns, good luck to everyone who decides to see it out, but alarm bells are starting to ring for me!