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BradSmith - we are normally, but we tend to throw rationality out of the window on issues related to the fairer sex. BTY his blog is most likely the best out there in 'reading the matrix'.
Damo, aren't most males rational - could be once a year , or twice a night , it varies dependent upon the woman no doubt.
If it was a buy the delay in announcing it would be explained because it must have involved many individual tranches to reach 1.7m - but so would the sell (on Monday). Good job he used LSE because the pylons would be up before you traded 1.7m on ASX - below 10c now, btw!
Time to clear the duck weed and chuck some chemicals in the pond - 8 goldfish and 2 golden orfe after I topped up :O)
Much cheaper than shares - and will die like a share, or grow a lot faster - but no dividends. My 6 lost golden orfe would have been £30 each at 9 inches long - so the stock price would have been good. Paid £3 each for my new tiddlers!
Chuckers
You are probably correct but the placement I thought was over a year ago but I might be wrong.Also agree I doubt you would get that price for such a large buy.
@pickwick:
Women are mysteries no more!
https://therationalmale.com/the-best-of-rational-male-year-one/
the majority of the placing went to the pension fund as far as i remember and all of the placees agreed to hold their shares for 12 months as far as i am aware
there was a guy on twitter the other day that said a few months back he will be selling due to unforeseen circumstances...hard to say why anyone would sell after buying such a large chunk but i cant see it possible someone got such a low price to buy?
The placing was 5.75 so maybe one of the big holders taking their money out at slight loss sick of waiting for news that will send the SP north.We had gas but that was not enough we needed a contract.We get that not known how much yet but that's not enough we need more gas.We will probably get a lot more gas for a spike but that will not be enough we need a better contract
You can probably tell I am getting fed up with the waiting and MMs dictating the price which always seems to be well below fair value.
I have gone back 2 months and there are few buys over 200k shares and 250k was te highest.
To sell 1.7m, means he had to buy them ...buying piecemeal and selling the whole lot? Or buying 1.7m in one go?
Could easily have held for more than 2 months but got fed up of clicking a day at a time O)
You need to be logged in to advfn for the link to work .... I got this far ....
https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=trades&dt_select=1558425600&trade_set=recent&symbol=LSE%3ATLOU
not sure about that, my logic dictates its a sell, why would anyone sell at this price- is no different than speculation tomorrows weather on tea leaves. possible someone just needed the money for other purposes. if it was a buy youd think they get this low price, i would guess they would get this price if it was a worked sell
1.7m @ 5.70p (mid point of 5.6 and 5.8) is as marginal as it gets on buy or sell.
Logic dictates it was a buy, why on esrth would someone sell so many at the lowest price?
Fear it is going even lower is the obvious answer, but with flow rates possible at any time the seller would need insider knowledge they are bad , and a buyer would just need to be mildly optimistic .
I think I know which of those is most likely? £100k is a hefty amount, even for a very fat cat, if he had insider knowledge he'd have gone long ago at a better price than rock bottom.
Good summary Damo, as ever, it's taking a we bit longer to come together. Market rates Tlou at current SP until it doesn't... ? Like women, bit of a mystery.
as they say cash is king, so the closer we get to ppa with government the better imo
That's a big unload of shares then. Must have been what bought the price down. 5.8 is a pretty good price to buy at though!
Damo
That trade was timed 9.38am so at that price probably a SELL. I bought some more today (said I would not) best I could get was 5.80p.
So looking at the buyers and sellers on this site and adding up both, today we had:
$20,510 sold.
$152,049 bought.
Rather an imbalance. Someone late in the day bought about 1.7m shares for approx $97k.
A fair summary, damo72, and true to say that we await flow results as the next potential tipping point for the SP. That said, every positive RNS could have been viewed, prior to release, as the one which led to a re-rate, yet here we are. So what will be 'the one'. Despite my continuing optimism for the long term prospects here (yes, with a few digits crossed re the flow), I have a feeling that a buy out (or rumours of) will be what send this truly skywards.
I hope you're correct on the funding with good flow, and I think the BG are sufficiently keen for this to proceed for there to be few obstacles to a gov. based loan.
Poor flow? Not in my considerations at the moment.
Dilution.
Thoughts and additions welcome!
So I was looking at the price drift down last week, and found it odd that there were far more buyers than sellers. Maybe something to do with the market makers? Anyway I decided over the weekend to look at where are are right now with Tlou and what is the path to Tlou being a major producer. I went back through the RNS, some podcasts and analysis documents. Most of you will already know this stuff but I wanted to put it into chronological order if only for my own clarity:
So current situation is:
They have won the tender for up to 10MW of power, most likely starting with 2MW (20th May). Final details of the tender are still being negotiated. Details TBC. Plan is for Tlou to start small and only commit to selling up to 10MW at the agreed price. Cash generated from power can fund expansion. This is one route (favoured) into the Southern African Power Pool, as they have also applied as an independent supplier. I assume the latter route is the plan B.
19 June, Lesidi 3 reached CDP. 10 July Lesidi 4 reached CDP. So my assumption is that gas flow rate for L3 will be published approximately 3 weeks before L4.
Tlou is fully funded until mid-2020.
Tlou is fully funded to explore their 9,300 sq km of concessions.
To build the power line they need $15m, which they will not do from share dilution. TG mentioned the Botswanan Development Corporation. I'd say that is the logical route as they can get a govt loan to cover $15m. Assuming that this loan will be dependent on final tender award and flow rates. Environmental impact statement has been approved but they still need full environmental approval (which includes landowner approval) to build the power line.
So we await:
L3 gas flow - TG mentioned commercial flow rates in coming months, although it possible we may get something such as 2P/3P estimates sooner.
L4 gas flow - see above.
Tender/Contract details - any day now.
Funding for power line
- a break as this now all gets built, but with concurrent exploration taking place.
Powerline up and 2MW produced and sold
Expansion to 10MW.
At that point TG said they would look for a partner, which might really be a buyer.
Critical are the L3/L4 flow rates, which has been described as the critical risk. But he also said that they should have decades of gas flow.
Last notes. They managed to get power from gas in Lesidi in 2017 and, L3 and L4 were picked as the geo surveys suggested they would have a high chance of containing gas. Dewatering took longer than expected which suggests that the coal has more fissures than predicted which is positive for gas flow. Short term recent gas flow in L3/L4 (not sure which or both) tested positive.
In view of the above, although there is no certainty in this world I'd say this has a v high chance of success. I'd say if L3/L4 proved to be dire, the company could still recover but the share price would take a battering it may take 2 years to get your money back and they would have to fund via dilut