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Chukkers, I reckon we'll supply Botswana and South African imports will drop accordingly, leaving SA with some power to supply their own country, albeit at a lower price. The customers win in both countries. But if Botswana won't pay our price, then they risk TLOU exporting it, maybe to SA , but to the highest bidder who has a record of paying on time.
I think I might be being played by hee-haw!
It is the only thing that makes sense to me regarding his peculiar attitude (unless he is just mad, which is 50%).
He is not credible after years of impolite postings - so rude.
Then muggins comes along ... and he realises that if I don't something I'll keep looking because I have the time (following my wife's passing). He hasn't got arguments to support his negativity because they are unreal!
He uses me to counter his claims, a bit of lateral thinking? If he said what I find people would not believe him. More chance of them believing me? So the only thing he is honest about is that he is invested, and who knows, maybe he is a bigger fan of TG than any of us?
It would be a good Agatha Christie plot, so I will desist from my whole-hearted posts supporting Tony.
It seems obvious that Tony is telling it as it is, I am hopefully teaching grannies to suck eggs. Sorry if I have been preaching to the converted chaps (grannies).
Roll on the gas flows - we'll have facts to converse about instead of conjecture.
we got the reserves, and south africa has huge demand, there is nothing holding us back from supplying electricity to them once flow rates are confirmed, i dont think many companies sit at such a comfortable position trading at 20mil
easy to forget how much tony has done over the course of few years here with the share price dropping , but that doens necessarily represent the value of the company dropping, rather the cyclical nature of the market. have a look at sxx chart from the beginning, up down like a jojo lol
never seen a more disingenuous post if you look back at all the prerequisites for us even being able to deliver the project youd find tlou has succeeded in obtaining everything that is required in not too long of a time these things take time as it is
with upstream and downstream eis in place we have no further authorisation required to commercialise the project
if 5 years ago from now i would tell you we would be in this position with just month away from signing a ppa with the government and nothing but the confirmcation of commercial flow rates holding us back you probably wouldnt believe me if i said you get all that for 20mil with the reserves we have
am i the only one who thinks talks of funding cant happen until commercial flow rates are confirmed, how on earth would tony otherwise know how much money they even need?
I'm sure the number will be the grand total from all sources. If they were stated for each platform, then further subdivision by broker might also make sense? Clearly impossible to keep track of them at that point.
Chris, just making sure that this as ill judged as I think, yet another daft Donk sarcastic post, as follows .....
"But you are right, as always, Brad - Tony knows what he is doing, that’s why it’s taken 3 years to get negotiating on a 2mw PPA and issue so many shares just to stay in the game. And BDC and the various banks Colm talked to are all committed to funding the project. Just like GE and IPC amazing partners - were they not supposed to help with funding...."
My strong belief is that TG would like to keep the shares at 450Mn. Staged development is so aimed at self-financing each phase with previous phases' profits. The notion that anybody in this world can build a power station without share issues or other financing is just bizarre! Tony is deliberately leaving finance on the side until he is can apply from a position of strength.
Phase 1. Get enough gas flows to power the next phase, 2Mw minimum on the first round.
Phase 2a. Agree a price for the available power.
Phase 2b. Implement the production of that power.
Phase 2c. Build/extend Serowe distribution lines if required.
Phase 3. Deliver profitable electricity.
Phase 4 Repeat the dose using the profits until deciding when dividends should kick in.
The risk will be ever reducing with each round, and we will also have more assets/security so the cost of finance should be less onerous with time. That is the plan as I understand it. Where is the danger? Ad nausea, those first gas flows!
Subsequent gas flows will each be of concern and could end further production, but I think I heard TG say that the gas flows currently being investigated are expected to be more than enough for 2Mw. If so I don't rule out a bigger generator but that is just the opinion of an idiot perhaps.
I hated learning how to calculate confidence levels back in college days - wish I could remember the theory now - the TG plan imho is way up there in the 90's. But despite my confidence, TG, could still not be the real thing?
So why is Donk invested if that is remotely true? Must stop before I talk myslef into putting all my savings into TLOU.
from my understanding the same shares are listed in many exchanges...
Question ive wondered but never asked the 450m shares is that aim only or does it include ASX and Botswana
Cheers.
number of shares in issue shows how much capital the company has spent on the project so i guess it has relevance. if you talk about supply and demand i think what matters is the market cap
Brad why do you think the number of shares in issue has any relevance?
Personally, I think for AIM that 450m is tiny. Lots of comps have a whole lot more!
If anything having a low number like 450 is good as it is not too small there is no liquidity or prime meat for pumpers and not to high that price never moves. 450m in my view is considered advantageous. Share prices move with supply and demand, and obviously, the few shares the smaller the supply. Also note that the directors hold about 29 million or 6.33% so the actual amount is less still.
How many people think 450M shares is too many for this venture?
It looks small to me but Sirius with 9Bn might be clouding my view?
Having more fun at BT. In July they advised my BT Sports and TV were going up in price.
I objected and they froze my price to the prevailing rate for another 18 months.
My bill today shows my BT TV has gone up so I rang them and they are honouring the price we agreed.
I think I mentioned my BT recording box broke down, I bought a replacement, and then got the old one working?
I asked for them to increase my subs by £5pm so I can use both boxes simultaneously or independently on the subscription channels. They declined because my minimum baud rate is 14MB (usually low to middle 20's) , debateably, insufficient to download both simultaneously in HD. One HD and one SD I think will be fine, and two SD definitely will be!