The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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As i understand it it may not be as easy as just dropping a new test into the hospitals but exact could buy stem and then increase the price per test on the basis it is better. better accuracy in a litigious US would be a major bonus. There are a few tests on the market so one would imagine STEM could easily get a foothold particularly if being driven by a Roche type outfit. Oncologists will want to use the best the market has to offer and STEM is the best by 30-40%. This is not a small number this is massive.
P.S I forgot to add the superior bit :-)
If you could get your money back for the tool in the first year, that would be a result in itself, so If you used the current annual revenue for Precision Oncology by Exact Science approx $500m that would be more like fair value for Stem.
i believe they charge $4000 a test so absolute massive numbers in an ever growing sector (unfortunately). roche surely would want an extra $500m turnover to add to their existing breast cancer portfolio... come on roche.
Looking at Exact Science latest figures, Precision Oncology revenue was $128.4 million for the three-month period ended March 31, 2020, so x4 would = £513.6 million approx per annum, expenses would have to be deducted of course to get the net profit, but looking at the pre existing tool Oncotype DX earning over half a billion in revenue certainly makes Stem a steal @ 300 mil if not a giveaway? https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/exact-sciences-announces-first-quarter-2020-results-301054271.html
Super summary Alastair! If ever there was a no brainer of an investment ( not trading) then this is near the top of the list, top for Aim Pharma companies I'd say .
Best other shares have to be in are BATM ( BVC) and Ceres ( not invested there) imho
The fact is we are well known to big pharma. Kunwar regular talks of big pharma and with ‘several ndas’ with them so far for our blockbuster drugs, we can expect heavy newsflow up to Q2 2021 Phase II trials commencing and if they go well then expect big names to be circling.
The covid story has legs. Sanofi/Regenron and Roche have all hit difficulties with their drugs which makes TZLS 501 a candidate for therapeutic work and especially with our patent for oral and nasal delivery applicable to remdesivir, TILS are well placed to work with these groups. Any sniff of big pharma involvement will set this share price alight.
Then we have the STEM de-merger which is absolutely massive and may well end up in a sale rather than listing. Is a test that improves the detection on the reoccurrence of breast cancer by over 30% compared to the market leader worth $300m? When compared against a sale that is only 7 months old where Oncotype DX was sold for $2.8bn you would think so. Granted Genomic healthcare was a 1,000 person business, that brings its own issues, so a listing/sale at 10% of that value and still 30% better seems like an opportunity not to be missed. STEM was subject to a poster at ASCO, so seen by all cpmpanies involved in oncology, and a 2,400 person study undertaken by the European Centre of Oncology and Royal Marsden so has serious backing/pedigree. I maintain that Exact sciences (owner of oncotype) should protect their position whilst for a group like Roche (heavily involved in breast cancer drugs) could see some major synergies with owning a testing regime.
Alzheimers, Crohns, liver cancer, MS, covid, breast cancer – big, big markets and growing markets and TILS are well advanced in all of them with crucial IP/patents. Big pharma would do well to start making contact now – oh wait they have….
Remember only 9% of the shares in issue are free float, our CEO owns over 40% and has a history of selling companies for big money and when the current programme of dilution (ATM) ends in July 2020 this will coincide nicely with the STEM listing/sale news. Imagine if STEM is sold with some of the proceeds used as a special dividend and some used to fund further trials, certainly puts TILS into any negotiation with big pharma in a very strong position.
STEM has no value in our portfolio right now because until last month nobody knew about it yet we have one of the best analysts on wall street put a $25 valuation on our shares as is. Hold this share for a few weeks and you get STEM, hold for a year and you get major medical breakthroughs and big pharma news. STEM is our Q3 2020 story, Q3/Q4 will be Covid and 2021 is covid/blockbuster drugs