Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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Shirazkhan
"Does anyone actually have a clue on this board about the potential of this test and the size of the breast cancer market???..... I would suggest those looking for quick returns look at low mcap mining stocks.. may double your money in two weeks. biotech is not for you!!"
Not everybody has a science degree or background that invests in Tiziana / biotech, many have learned lots of information especially from your posts. Some look at the investment from just a financial side which I'm sure you have also learned from. Its part of being involved in the BB.
greend thanks for re-posting that
Hi guys...watch GC's last video...he mentioned that Gilead might want stemprint as they just bought immunomedics for $21bn....he mentioned it as an example. He does want to sell in my opinion.
Afternoon all,
I posted the info below a month or so back, just thought it might help with thread...apologies for the naval gazing if already seen...
Exact and OncotypeDX...not seeing how we get to an approx valuation given lack of competitive strength and cash impact) but might be of interest??
- Genomic Health when purchased had 800 emps and turnover was $223mn in H1 of that year...this wasn't all Breast cancer related, $162mn was so had other diagnostics being developed at the time.
- OncotypeDX covers Colon and Prostate Prognostics aswell (under Oncotype umbrella)
- At that time, revenues had grown c. 20% y-o-y $330mn to $400mn.
- They did 39k tests in that last quarter so run rate of c 160k tests per annum.
- It looks like each test sells for $3.5-4K, but looking at their sales, get a unit price of $2k coming to Exact so assume remainder is in the field pricing.
- Exact paid $2.8bn which is well documented, and turnover was c 400mn USD at the time.
- Exact selling into 90 countries and looking at their recent figures sales seem flat at 160k per annum.
- For info, c 2nn women a year are diagnosed with breast cancer which in my view is pretty high reach at 160mn tests.
- I assume growth in sales is dependent on proving a TCO that it is of more value to use the OncotypeDX tool as it would lead to a better result for the patient but also (and unfortunately the case) is more cost effective for the healthcare trust.
- Of exact sales, 72% in US, 28% elsewhere.
- Now trying to expand into Europe where previously weak, and where TILS should have strength, particularly UK and IT.
Of interest, 160k breast cancer tests, but doing 1.7mn colon tests.
- Exact would have been buying the skill set to expand Prognostics not just in breast cancer but wider oncology. I would assume similar process to identify markers of other cancers so once you have the proprietory technology should be a wider market to aim for, and suspect that is where the Exact Sciences business saw the scope from the acquisition.
- I can't ascertain profit relating to Oncotype as it is bundled but will have a dig around to see if I can find anything.
- Interestingly Exact presented at ASCO 2020 aswell and as you would expect are looking to improve the efficacy of their models/tools.
Two key elements on treatment, cost being one unfortunately and drug costs shown by BMO3 so PCT can direct it's spending better, and secondly, saves someone going through extensive treatment when it might not have been necessary / best course of action.
Roker .. apologies it is $300 million per annum. No it doesnt affect my valuation. It is less then 4 times annual turnover of oncotype dx. Furthermore that test was bought 6 months ago (with some extra goodies) for $2.8 billion. I dont think GC has any plans to sell before validation and commercialisation. Big Pharma will start calling q2/q3 next year. Im happy to wait until then. For that kind of potential happy to wait a few years. GLA
SK39
The H&C Wainwright research note from 29 May says that 2018 Oncotype DX sales reached almost $300m, so I think that is an annual figure rather than quarterly. Would that impact your $1 billion minimum requirement?
Why do you think the board would necessarily be giving much away by selling Accustem sooner rather than later? The point is that the board may be able to extract a premium from big pharma now which is attractive given the remaining final delivery risk on the commercialisation of StemPrintER. A lot can happen in 6 months. Time is risk.
With regard to the share price, you know I never comment on short-term movements because there is nothing I can do about them and you can never really be sure of cause and effect on short-term prices - the markets are so complex. So I go on fundamentals and I think they are good for TILS. The only reason I am not buying more myself now is because of self-imposed portfolio limits on single stocks - most of my portfolio is run for yield., but I like a bit of excitement too.
Roker, if memory serves I think oncotype dx turnover is around $250-300mln quarterly. So $ 1bn is the least we should be hoping for. Also CE mark is being sought in November. FDA approval is not as long winded as with drugs as this is a diagnostic. Perhaps one more validation study. This test could be helping patients by q2 21. Why would we want to give this away?! Dont think most on here understand the true potential of accustem Once validated, approved i think exact sciences will buy out personally. I would. GLA
whimax 1 trade now whats the code for that.....sell......buy......RNS......MMs out of stock......director buy........or state side is positive, which one will you choose :-)
Ooooh look. A “1” Trade at 4.31pm lol
Game one guys.
Hi Whimax
Two serial over-payers are telecoms majors and big pharma. Come on down big pharma!
Agreed Roker.
£1b and it’s yours!! I honestly think that will be the magic number. Whether anyone is prepared to pay that right now, remains to be seen. Let’s face it tho, a £1b punt to Roche is buttons.
But of course that all reflects I am a finance person first and foremost.
SK39,
I would like to think that the board wouldn't give value away unnecessarily. But sometimes you get offered a price for something which you have to take. StemPrintER is some way from full validation and commercialisation. There may be a price that the board have in mind for the asset right now. That's why I asked you a month ago what you would accept tomorrow for TILS. I don't mind leaving something on the table if it removes a whole load of delivery risk. It's always a balance whatever the sector.
Roker, agree with much of your post. I also feel the demerger could have been handled better. Disagree on the sale of accustem part. Cant see how you get value with a quick disposal . Not on an asset that took 7 years to develop. Does anyone actually have a clue on this board about the potential of this test and the size of the breast cancer market???..... I would suggest those looking for quick returns look at low mcap mining stocks.. may double your money in two weeks. biotech is not for you!! GLA
Hi letsbecool
Yes, I was diddling around with TILS until the fund-raising, once that was done I got serious and bought a lot more. DD, funding, more investor influence over the board etc etc.
Rokerpark, "If I were one of the professional investors who came into the fund-raising I would love the idea of a rapid pay-back through an early sale of Accustem and then a longer-term term ride on a high-quality therapeutic business pipeline."
Good summary, That's exactly the reason why I invested in the first place and I'm sure lots more like me also
OMG,
I've never heard such a load of Bulls...t apertaining to the demerger.
4 million for accustem equates to circa 2%. Thats 2percent you muppets.
Has anyone done any research as to the value of the Tils pipeline?
FFs I give up!
You lot should'nt be investing in a pharma if you can't handle the word $billions.
Nuff said, I'll get me coat and and let the muppets continue going round in circles to distract.
Just picked-up on this interesting discussion about the demerger and the issues around the share price.
As I have said before, I can understand why the demerger has been pursued, but it is a clumsy process. I'm still not sure why they didn't just hive the StemPrintER assets down into a subsidiary then, when they were a bit further down the line with the product's validation, do an orthodox IPO to raise new finance when Accustem floated. Tiziana could have retained a majority shareholding in Accustem and we wouldn't have to deal with the risks around Accustem shares being illiquid for a period of time.
Given that the $57m fund-raising was completed in August, months after the intention to demerge was first raised in May, I can only assume that the new investors were fully consenting adults when it came to how the demerger was being structured. I still think the most logical thing will be for Accustem to be sold privately before the Admission to the LSE takes place some time in Q4. According to the Demerger Shareholder Circular the demerger of the StemPrintER assets is due to complete on 30 October, so that's the earliest date that Accustem can be sold owning StemPrintER. If I were one of the professional investors who came into the fund-raising I would love the idea of a rapid pay-back through an early sale of Accustem and then a longer-term term ride on a high-quality therapeutic business pipeline.
As regards the share price over the next few weeks, heaven only knows where it is going. Unless you are a trader I just wouldn't let it worry you too much. Either some of these products will be a success or they won't. That's the risk I am willing to take. However, I would really like them to sell Accustem quickly and give me a good early return. There would be lots of value left for the longer-term.
Afternoon all
So, just under 2 hrs left of UK trading today.
No RNS yet, so not much new news can be shared in call in this evening.
However, as mentioned considerably recently, the shorts will have to close at some point. I suspect a US afternoon rally at some point, post Uk close.
Fingers crossed for an avalanche of news post AccuStem split
GLA
It was very weird parking in Liverpool One and seeing almost no cars - it was like a scene from The Warriors - safe in my own office in Albert Dock and will take a taxi to Hope St later - so doubt if I will have come into with anyone in a non socially distanced environment - fingers crossed!
Got another C19 test on Thursday morning - thanks for your concern - there are still loads of people walking round like nothing is going on though - which is very sad
Bm3....I do not disagree....
I'm not of the opinion that there will necessarily be a large post de merger drop in TILS share price given the potential newsflow. But the process does generate uncertainty. However I am confident that both Accustem and TILS will be stronger separated. Especially as the BOD have confirmed the split is about commercialisation; which in SP terms should translate to rises.
alam as i posted yesterday LT investors have fallen out of love with Tils, and i think that if the Sp goes over £2.50 lots will take out the initial investment, i also feel that the July spike put investors thinking we would hit that again on the split date, which it still could, but its given people a wrong sense of security regarding the sp level, and state side is not helping the sp at all
Nothing much that can be done for holders. Might as well pass GO and collect your free shares unless there is a spike on providing an alternative exit strategy. I am not looking forward to the period post demerger. This is when the Bod will have to build the share price up again. But this is also the time there will be potential bargain hunters with the Nasdaq getting interested again. You can see what effect the demerger/Nasdaq has had on sp by comparison with sng. SNG massive placing of £87 million and the sp remains above placing price. Also still a long way from knowing what Accustem will list at. Then also time needed to build Accustem strategy unless a sell is on the cards. I tend to think Accustem will be sold post demerger and this was the only way to do it without losing control of Tiziana with the plus of rewarding long suffering investors. However it is taking absolutely forever.
GC has told us in one of the videos that Stem will start to be used in Q1 in Italy(think he said Milan but could be wrong)before being rolled out to other countries, i am positive that this will still be the case.