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A few ATM kicked in US no doubt. Should climb again
i will certainly oblige rd
Davey - this post seemed to do the trick. Can we have another one on Wednesday
Quick look at their balance sheet suggests they are keeping the lights on but issuing equity.
If they didn't generate income from some source then they will have to continue issuing equity
Have I got that right?
Sorry, so I dont know for sure the levels or when they are selling as part of the ATM, so you kinda just have to look at the price action and gauge from experience .
https://www.think-equity.com/trading. They can trade on the NYSE , Unless someone here knows the Thinkequity executing broker in the LDN timezone , its all guess work..
Well they employ a company called thinkequity, who have a history of raising funds for this sector. They will be 'advising' what price to sell at etc.. RNS's are issued with the total of funds raised and new shares tradable on the exchange. Since the ATM program a total of approx 11mil more shares are in circulation, some of these are warrant execises . However so far
ATM for may raised $1.8Mil
ATM for Jun raised $2.8Mil
So still a bit to go. : and according to the last RNS see below - They may extend the offering after Jul.
The offering of ADSs pursuant to the Offering Agreement continues to run and will now terminate upon the earlier of: (a) the sale of all of the ADSs subject to the Offering Agreement; (b) the termination of the Offering Agreement by ThinkEquity or the Company, as permitted in accordance with its terms; or (c) 31 July 2020, unless extended.
So with an ATM I presume the company call the price to sell at - if they know there is news coming out they would hold on. Suggests to me they have plans that will need capital but they can raise when at a price that suits them.
Going to sound nieive but where do you find details of what they are selling at. Thanks for the advice - GLA
We have had 2 reasons why the shareprice has been held back.
1.) ATM's to raise up to £16.2million by end July.
2.)Quils Institutional Investor selling due to their requirement to raise funds for their business reasons so reduce their holding in tils, not anything to do with not liking tils. ( but I've not got the right wording. )
For clarity, each ADR on Nas equals 5 shares on Aim, therefore to compute between the 2 exchanges, divide the NAS shareprice by 5 and multiply by 0.81 (currently ).
Hope that helps.
Gla ( no luck required )lol.
The atm’s have held the sp back, a few more weeks and they will be done and you won’t get these under £1.50 imo
There are IIs in TILS and they are not really flying under radar.
I know the therapeutics are high risk as in any biotech but I have a feeling I am missing something. I topped to last week but think I might do so again if I can understand what is holding SP back
I can only presume because there is a $20mil share sale/capital raise happening. Its been going on since 60p and a lot around 1115/120 lvls. Once this is over - Bingo.. However after this interview, I would presume ThinkEquity will raise the selling price of the shares and raise all of the $20mil a lot quicker.
I've loaded up my order for tomorrow 118 Bid 2K worth..
I don’t think this is factored into the current share price , markets will now becoming aware of it though , upwards from here imo
Wow. Double wow
Over 900,000 patients worldwide have received the information provided by the Oncotype DX assay.
Duopolies tend to price match or find equilibrium fairly quickly. So if TILS have ASP of $3000 (25% price drop) and 30% market share = revenue of 50,000 x $3000
= a lot ($150M). Given it is a better test they might launch at a premium and why would you run such a diagnostic and not just get the best.
Am I missing something - the market knows all this so why is SP not higher?
This is a great source of information on OncotypeDX
Can I ask where did the 154,000 patients at $4000 come from?
Exact Sciences did pay a lot but they also got other products and 100% of the market in short term. Forecasting revenue TILS is unlikely to get 100% market share but could penetrate the market through aggressive pricing.
These factors mean I'm discounting the Stem price compared to exact sciences.
and also think why on earth would any pharma who can see the obvious financial gain in both a circa $300m a year turnover sector (from the market leader only) not want to buy a product when just 8 months ago the competitor who you will instantly be 40% better than sold for $2.8bn. If exact sciences can make their product work for colon and prostate cancers then one would of thought STEM can be reconfigured also to be better. Exact obviously have their own motives in that their company could be become worth a fraction of what they paid for it within a year. no brainer whoever you are.
I notice the bank of new york nominees has been replaced by Goldman sachs nominees as the second largest shareholder -only happened in last few days - not sure what to think about it.
should stem list at $280m then say we wait a year until the sale as ultimately GC will determine how it progresses being the major shareholder with i major support from alot of the established HNW/II and we get $1bn - 4 bagger right there and still have 3 blockbuster attempts in TILS. Easy money to be made here if you sit and wait. All the markers are there.
Say Stem lists at $280m it would likely need to raise monies in order to progress towards commerciality. Based on what GC says about it being able to get into hospitals within 12 months then the upwards projection could be massive based on the exact sciences deal. One would hope that GC retains his 40% stake as he has with TILS. With 5 big pharma under CDA on the TILS pipeline and several posters at ASCO everyone will know about TILS and what it has which is why i am very relaxed that value will out in due course and based on Kunwar experience of taking drugs through the process to market and GC deal making skills and one of the best analysts in pharma putting a big target on, I am very confident that TILS/STEM will see huge upside in the next 12 months.
Okay choose your figure.
Whichever you choose it still means TILS is massively undervalued just now.
£2bn = £11.76
£1bn = £ 5.88
Should be remembered that Oncotype DX is about 15 years old so is well established in the marketplace. However in the last few years we have seen Mammaprint eat into that share especially in Europe. HC Wainwright have put a conservative £280m MC on stemprinter and so based on what they would have done by way of DCF and knowledge in the marketplace that is where the discussion should be. They would not just throw a number out especially when that number is twice the current MC. However, in a big pharma valuing it someone like Roche would think along the lines of how it works with their 2 blockbuster breast cancer drugs so can offer a full service whilst Exact will be mindful of a potential huge competitor hitting the market in 2021 so would buy either to make their service better and/or to prevent a competitor stealing their market. At $280m paid today we would get a nice dividend and money into the phase 2 trials or if a buyer does not come forward then stemprinter can progress and would be worth substantially more in 12 months time with distribution deals and all that comes with actually starting to generate revenue. The analyst wrote 'we anticipate that StemPrintER uptake could be significantly faster than that of Oncotype DX once introduced' in coming up with their $25 valuation of TILS it excluded much of what we are doing such as STEM, TZLS 501, miciclib for anything other than HCC and Formalulab for anything other than crohns so no value for the MS, alzheimers work.
It's not just the network that's important, it's the investment in knowledge and awareness of the product. Plus overcoming the established presence and belief in the existing solution. That will be no small financial commitment.
Tils would not expect anywhere near 2.8b for this in the next few months.
I do agree Exact might have the biggest incentive to buy and offer the best price too and it'll be substantial but a fraction of 2.8 if in the not too distant future.
All I know is that the share price at 1.14/16 is ridiculously cheap.
And even £5 is still cheap.
7 months ago Exact Sciences paid $2.8bn for a similar but inferior product. Part of that price was because tehre was already a sales and marketing support network in place for the product. STEM does not have this and so a discount could be expected for this. Except that if the buyer is a major then they will already have such a network. I'm going to stick with a sale of about £2.8bn giving a slight premium because its a 40% superior product. TILS has aout 170m shares in circulation which should mean a similar figure for STEM. This gives a valuation of £16.47 per share for STEM.
Worth 4 billion dollars, but taking a conservative view take say 50 percent off and for ease of computation use 1.7 billion dollars. I think there will be some 170 million shares in issue so when demerged take half your shares to calculate your value on buy out. So, 10 dollars per share x 1/2 you’re shareholding and thats conservative.gla, vbw.