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Ilja, I wonder if you have access to todays London Daily Telegraph that has a somewhat frightening article headed “ Why South Africa is on the precipice of 'explosive violence' and mass unrest” . Given you are on the ground, and only 120km from Jo’burg, I wonder how you see the dangers of a near inevitable Arab Spring, that the article takes about, affecting Tharisa?Thanks, but much appreciate your view as perhaps the single thing that will most affect our share price, more than the coming recession or if PGM or Chromium prices tumble
Well we seem to have had the bounce, PGMs and Chromium now falling again. Still we have plenty of cash to stick it out for now, lucky they only pay 17% of profit dividend
All recent posts noted. Having steadily added, and notwithstanding any deficit of late, my intention is to hold for the next couple of years. I do not expect a return to £1.70 this year although it would be a very welcome reversal.
LOL
You have to get out more!
Sotolo
I find that with many companies. Sometimes I see LSE more popular with posters than ADVFN for one company but the opposite is true for another. I have a couple of shares where every few months I have a conversation with myself just for amusement. At least no one disagrees with me then
Mike
With iWeb. Couldn't get a quite for well over an hour, and no trades were reported here. Then all of a sudden I could, bought 5215, and several have been reported since but all at an identical price. Seems odd but what do I know!
but just look at how little interest there is on this board, THS has had just 6 posts this month, Hochschild around 100, and the likes of Centamin, that is not huge; many hundreds. THS ove Ron advfn is even deader, it is out of fashion and neglected, part of the reason for the very very low share price unless PGM’s and Chrome implode
If you notice I had the same problem buying 11000 a couple of weeks ago at 99p, and never did. It is a rather illiquid share with few deals for its size. Hocschild, that is not much larger and has a big family holding, has had near 300 trades in the last hour, Tharisa 0.
john-not sure who you are with?
I am with Hargreaves Lansdown and while they cannot give me an immediate price for 11,000 shares there is no problem with an immediate quote for 5,000.
But I suppose the family shareholders own a big chunk along with institutional investors. With the dual listing in S Africa and UK this probably has an effect too. I do agree with your sentiment.
Couldn't get a quote for 11000 shares? I cant get a quote for 200! This has an MC of over 300 million, its not a tiny company. Why is it so illiquid? Its worrying because if you cant buy then we will probably find the same if we try to sell. Seems a decent market isn't being made/
You would have got 100p.. psychological levels cost pi,s money all the time.
Reckon this is still very cheap jnder £120-130
Shame I failed at 99.5!
I tried to buy 11000 yesterday after lunch when the ask was 99.5 but couldn’t get a quote for even that small number, a very illiquid share with quite a spread
Hi Retired Banker, you have been quiet for the last 3 months!
It is great to hear from you and presumably you are still invested here.
I cannot disagree with your logic but the general market lethargy, concern about commodities (RIO is well below the 8-10 P/E you mention),geography of THS ( I think totally outweighed by the management strength), relatively low free equity and liquidity, particularly the future for PGMs in ICE vehicles and also the green hydrogen future, risk over the Karo investment are all perceived as negative points particularly for big institutional investors and the overall value of THS.
For me THS has already proved that they can deliver, with the odd hiccup which is tiny for the mining industry. Hopefully the general market will come to appreciate this and if nervous then the sheer great numbers will eventually persuade them.
It is amazing that this sits around 100p ... I can't see any reason for it not to re-test highs around 175p ... just based on existing 2022 revenue and profits. Even if profitability dropped to around $100m you're still looking at a very cheap company paying a healthy dividend, near debt free which on a multiple of 8-10 should be worth much closer to £1bn mkt cap
Typo Berenberg target up from 250p to 280p.
Thanks for detailed analysis
Just seen Berenberg bank raised theirvtarget price from £2.59 to £2.80 2 weeks ago… is the market pricing THS wrong?
Tharisa (LON:THS – Get Rating) had its price objective boosted by Berenberg Bank from GBX 250 ($3.03) to GBX 280 ($3.39) in a research note released on Thursday morning, Marketbeat Ratings reports. The firm currently has a buy rating on the stock.
THS stock opened at GBX 102.21 ($1.24) on Thursday. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 12.08, a current ratio of 1.83 and a quick ratio of 1.46. The firm has a market capitalization of £306.24 million and a PE ratio of 262.50. The company’s 50 day simple moving average is GBX 131.86 and its 200-day simple moving average is GBX 138.70. Tharisa has a 12 month low of GBX 96 ($1.16) and a 12 month high of GBX 172 ($2.08).
Hi Visitor, we are looking at this at slightly different angles, you have Rh c.12%/Pd 21%/Pt 67%/Au negligible= 100% so this is the 4E (which simply ignores the lesser known ruthenium/iridium contents).
I am looking at the 6E which is the measure that Tharisa uses to calculate their basket. in FY2021 Tharisa say their
prill split is pt 54.9,pd 15.8,rh 9.8,au 0.2,ru 14.7,ir 4.6=100% and in the Karo PGM Project Presentation dated 31st March 2022 they reported the Karo 6E as pd 39.5,pt 42.1, au 8.3, ru 4.1, rh 4.1, ir 1.9=100%.
So my point was that on 18th July Tharisa Twitter was showing the 6E PGM basket as $2318.17/troy oz but if on the 19th/20th the rhodium price increased by $950/oz then if the other prices were unchanged the basket price would increase by about $93/oz (9.8% x 950) to about $2410/oz.
As you point out the ratios will change very slightly.
You are not too pedantic, it is always good to discuss and understand!
Hi Mike et al - not to be too pedantic, but for Tharisa SA open pit mine, I believe Rhodium is circa 12%, Palladium 21% and Platinum 67% (as per last presentation unlock the stock, page 17 - on the THS website Investors - Presentation). I know there is gold in there too, but it's negligible. I know those ratios change Q to Q depending on part of reef being mined, but that appears to be the "average" THS are currently working on and now and again they update it.
For Karo, ratios are 4% Rhodium, 42% Palladium, 45% Platinum and 9% Gold (same page of same presentation).
Well spotted Swatton/ElProf, the Johnson Matthey rhodium price is usually about $500-700/oz more than the Tharisa price in the basket but assuming that the trend is correct and the rhodium price has increased $950/oz in the last 2 days then at about 9.8% rhodium in the Tharisa basket that puts the Tharisa basket price back above $2400/oz.
Ian.B-after the Q3 production figures and news my latest estimates for FY 2022 production are PGM''s 175,600 oz and chrome 1,604,000 tonnes (for Q4 I estimated an improvement to the Vulcan yields but that the average yield for the quarter is 72.5% even if it gets nearer to 80% by the end of September).
As the Peel Hunt report points out management deliberately targeted PGM production earlier in the year when the prise was high.For FY23 it would be fantastic if PGM recoveries steadily move up to the target levels of 85% (compared to 76.8% in the first 9 months of FY 2022 but I think this could possibly be offset by a lower PGM rougher feed grade which was 1.71/grams/tonne in the first 9 months of FY2022 to say 1.46 to 1.51 grams/tonne (which was the level in 2018-2020 when the PGM rougher feed grade was 80.1 to 84.1%. Hopefully i am wrong about this!
Rhodium now showing 15250 so another rise:
https://matthey.com/products-and-markets/pgms-and-circularity/pgm-management
And Rhodium prices seem to be ticking up too. That’s got to help this quarter.
Very quiet here. Been watching the slide after selling out at £1.57p a little premature as it hit £1.70.
Back in bargain territory again so took a few back earlier this week. Parked to await the inevitable recovery in the quality company. Sub £300m mcap is a snip.
Peel hunt
Peel Hunt analyst Peter Mallin-Jones, in the note, repeated a ‘buy’ rating and a 255p price target – suggesting significant upside to the current market price of 99.45p per share.
“The kit to tweak the plant units is on-site, so the present quarter should see a pick-up in recoveries as the tweaks are implemented. Our current chrome concentrate production estimate is 1.75Mt, so we were at the bottom of the prior guidance,” Mallin-Jones said.
“Realised chrome concentrate prices of US$247 per tonne were well over our US$234 per tonne estimate, meaning some of the revenue miss on lower output and sales will be recouped via higher prices.
“PGM production is tracking to hit or even slightly exceed the upper end of guidance (175koz). This has come as management has deliberately targeted PGM production (at the expense of chrome concentrate production) to capture the biggest cash flows possible during the recent period of strong PGM pricing.”
The analyst added: “Guidance implies an improved quarter from the Vulcan plant, but to hit the upper end would require a full quarter around design recovery rates.
“PGM recoveries are ticking up and management indicates that as the ratio of oxidised ore in the blend falls through FY23E, recoveries should steadily move to the target levels of 85%.”
Peel Hunt additionally noted Tharisa’s strong cash generation and pointed to its US$48mln of net cash in the bank.