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Has anyone actually contacted the company with points raised and asked for clarity. Posting on a chat site asking for llja to come along and explain on the basis hes has posted information is hopeful at best.. llja could be ill, on holiday, otherwise engaged. Instructed to stop posting and communicate via official channels.
If your concerned about any aspect of transactions that are covered in the accounts contact the company, IR etc.
Sadly I have remained fully invested only adding over the years, I still haven’t sold a share, other than a very few last autumn to help buy a new car. I was unaware of the Karo share purchases posted here with notes to accounts, it is not me who posted these and the questions, so criticize them if you want. I have never claimed to have the sort of knowledge many on this board have, which is partly why I am keen Ilja explain what all this actually is, as I expect there may be a simple company accounting explanation and they do not rally value Karo at over a billion when buying shares, he is usually so forward so a bit worrying on top of the somewhat scary posts. I still have all 542501 which have halved. Have never shorted wouldn’t know how. I correct only on things I know about like world ev sales and how marginal changes can have a multiplier effect on PGM prices. I have been right about falling PGMs but hold for the wonders of chromium that has so far survived the Chines slowdown well. Just want Ilja to explain the posts that have come this week to me as beyond my knowledge level. All best and I appreciate all views and questions here, this board is not just to ramp shares but for the knowledgable who have posted this week to illuminate us about worries too, and for Ilja to comment on these as well as the positive. Thanks and good luck all
Could you stop posting Sotolo until you buy back in or close your short? Not at all interested in this shorters whinging over something that was previously announced, thank you.
Cheers
Quick question -last year gross profit percentage was adversely affected by large amounts of chrome material purchases due to problems processing own material.
Has this continued this financial year or has the company reverted to mostly processing its own material -big impact on profit?
Shares still gently falling, still no Ilja?
A. Sadly UK is not a large part of world car market
B. China is around 40% for all plug ins and 26% for bev’s
C. A marginal difference to demand with similar supply makes. Big difference in price and this is a very large difference in demand even in a growing market
UK car sales by fuel type 2023 (Until the end of November)
Percentage of new petrol, diesel and electric passenger car sales (source: SMMT)
Fuel type Market share
Petrol 41%
Diesel 4%
Hybrid* 39%
Pure electric 16%
So only 16% of new UK cars (Pure Electric) contain no PGM catalytic converter!
Hybrid* = Mild hybrid petrol, Mild hybrid diesel, Plug-in hybrid, Self-charging hybrid
Looks to me like a load of PI's have given up the game at the very bottom of the cycle. May be some downside still but we'll see.
The WPIC have been “Bigging up” huge platinium deficits for months yet no sign of the price moving up.significantly-in fact in free fall today -palladium too!
Thanks, but the world platinum investment council would say that…
Https://platinuminvestment.com/files/855484/WPIC_Platinum_Essentials_December_2023.pdf
Tharisa CEO on you tube today (see JLP board)
Worth a listen too but does seem to state future of PGMs prices reliant on hydrogen economy taking off and defiantly not positive on palladium..interest rates need to fall and economies recover
A few pi,s have thrown the towel in today, several on the twitter group lost patience. Once a couple sell others also jump ship. Its the same in the opposite direction, pi,s move in herds.
Im not happy with the sp but will keep taking the divis and await a recovery rather than realise a loss.
All this debate has achieved is to wipe another £12 million off the desperately low shareprice -now an obvious bid target or to be taken private .
Common on Bod it must be time to spend a few millions on share buybacks -£10 million is a very small number in relation to the overall financial position of the company and would do wonders for the shareprice -and please don’t say this is not possible due to Karo -it clearly is
Hxulcolrdoh
I think you're missing the point. Because THS own the majority of Karo Holdings (KH), it doesn't much matter what valuation they place on the shares.
Suppose KH was valued at $325m pre fund raise. THS owns 70% so it's stake is worth £227.5m. THS injects £65m for another 5% so KH is now worth $390m. THS now owns 75% so it's stake is worth $292.5m (amazingly $65m more; the amount it injected).
However let's suppose KH was only worth $125m pre fund raise. THS owns 70% so it's stake is worth £87.5m. THS injects £65m for 5% so KH is now worth $190m. THS now owns 75% so it's stake is worth $142.5m ($55m more; but only $10m less than it injected).
Ilja, are you there when we need you or only when we don’t? Your absence wouldn’t be so concerning if you were not usually anything but silent. Please enlighten
After studying the numbers again I NOW agree with hxulcolrdol that his is just looking at the Tharisa percentage shareholding in Karo Mining so his numbers are correct and that they this ALREADY allow for the dilution effect described by stemis.
But now the issued share numbers look strange. On 2nd June 2022 we are told Karo Mining issued an additional 44 new ordinary share for a cash subscription of $9.9m [$225,000 each] ,the additional shares issued represented 1.29% of the issued share capital of Karo Mining {inferring 3411 shares in total}
on 10th Aug 2022 another 45 new share are issued for a cash subscription of $10.2m [$226,667 each] representing 1.22% of the issued share capital {now inferring 3689 share in total].
But then on30th June 2023 Karo issues an additional 3,800 new ordinary shares for $27.3m ( now only $7184 each] which represents 2.33% of the issued shares [now inferring 163,090 shares} why the big change?
Just shows how complicated the numbers are if we cannot agree on them!
Hi SteMis,
I'll explain the problem of the $93.7m for 8.7%.
If a company valued at $100m is jointly owned by A(75%) and B(25%) has to raise $100m then both A and B should put their hands in their pocket to the tune of $75m and $25m respectively. Post transaction their share of the larger enterprise remains the same.
However if the burden of the raise fell entirely on A then post transaction A should own 87.5% of the larger enterprise while B should be diluted down to 12.5%
Suppose instead it was a $10000m company that needed to raise $100m and again the burden fell entirely to A. Then post transaction A would own 75.25% and B would own 24.75%.
If in the case of 'Karo Mine Holdings' an ABSURD initial valuation can be put on the original enterprise then B ('Medway Developments') can leave A (Tharissa) to one sidedly supply all the funds whilst suffering minimal dilution.
THIS IS PLAINLY WRONG!
I sold out of Tharisa yesterday for a different reason but I agree with Stemis here. Tharisa was always going to fund its share of capex into Karo through equity investment into Karo Holdings. It doesn't affect anything else and they will not exceed on their committed equity (of c$130m). I think Stemis has clarified this point really well.
Hxulcolrdoh,
Whether you agree with Tharisa developing Karo is another matter. I suspect the board is taking a long term view than just satisfying the desires of private investors to crystallise a short term profit on their shares. Whether they will be proved right I suspect neither you nor I can know with any certainty. However, if you truly believe that PGM mines have no value, then there's plenty of shares out there that you could short if that's your fancy.
My point was actually about the subscription for shares which is essentially the funding of the capital expenditure that is being expended on Karo. It's simply misleading not to recognise that the majority of the money being put into Karo Holdings is simply going from one pocket of Tharisa to another. They effectively still 'own' 75% of the cash they put into Karo Holdings.
Strange the company are not responding to these points.-they usually address shareholders concerns
Perhaps they realise they have completely messed things up committing to Karo on the basis of a “inflated bubble” PGM price of $2160.
Shame they appear determined to continue to flush shareholders funds away on Karo -surely they should.have diversified into another metal with a more certain future -copper perhaps
SteMis, I agree with your logic, and admit it is important that Tharisa is buying newly issued shares rather than 5% of shares directly from the Minority shareholder (Leto Settlement/Medway).
But even valuing their 75% holdings in Karo at $320m is still a massive number and the purchase of the next 5% new shares this year will on past performance be at a higher price than $65m, valuing their 80% holding in Karo by more than $320m.
In relation to the Tharisa NAV or market cap or EV this is still a massive number particularly when the economic case is that the Karo PGM basket price needs to substantially increase for the project to start, probably from around $1200/oz at the moment to nearer $1700/oz +.
The gist of the argument, if I'm not mistaken, is that THS have paid $65m for 5% of the shares in Karo Holdings, valuing Karo Holdings at an incredible $1.3bn. Whilst this is true, what hasn't been taken account of is that THS didn't buy the shares off the minority holder (Leto settlement) but subscribed for new shares in Karo Holding. The result is that 75% of the $65m still effectively 'belongs' (in the sense of being part of their beneficial holding) to THS. Only 25% i.e. $16m of value has been provided to Leto to reduce their holding from 30% to 25% (so from their point of view, it's valued their holding in Karo Holdings at $320m). Indeed if THS do increase their holding to 80%, that $16m 'effectively' becomes $13m.
Now one can argue that the $16m should be lower, but there may be strategic (or indeed contractual) reasons why they might have agreed that figure (I don't know). However, in the scheme of things, the difference really isn't that material.
Mr Graulich, would really appreciate your insight on this, thanks
Sotolo, YES.
Mr Market current values the market cap of Tharisa (which includes 75% of Karo Mining) at around $234m, the enterprise value is round $113m and the Net Asset Value in the September accounts attributable to shareholders was $616m.
Tharisa has already told us our share in Karo will this year increase by a further 5% to 80% and presumably this will cost over $65m based on the previous transactions.