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Looks like another day of sharp decline here.
With cash burn, slowing organic growth, forex pressures, CEO debacle, investor-presentation disaster, ownership chaos, breakup chaos, opaque Ingenuity guidance, and shorts pressure, it is hard to see any upside for THG right now.
This looks headed for the £1-2 range.
As predicted, the bear trend here remains in control.
Share price is in freefall.
Management is a disaster.
Ownership chaos.
Breakup chaos.
Target price of 75p.
Factually correct though they did state in H1 they would have made a profit had it not been for one off costs, as below -
The Group has incurred an operating loss for the first-half of £17.4m impacted by certain non-recurring cash costs:
o £15.6m of non-recurring Distribution costs (principally transportation, delivery and fulfilment costs associated with Covid-19, which are declining as expected and now running at half of the levels seen at the peak FY 2020 position);
o £13.0m of Administrative costs (principally acquisition related costs including legal and professional fees) which are included within adjusted items reflecting the non-underlying nature of these costs.
Margins of 8.5% so you would expect them tho make a profit with out these costs and now staff are all back at work and lock downs over and less pandemic impacts… Ebitda for H1 was in the region of £85m and operating profit was £11m.
Share price has fallen from a year high of £8 to now £2.89 so a hell of a drop. Hugely over sold. I personally wouldnt have bought at over a fiver but at this price it looks more attractive. Once shorts close which they will I’d expect it to settle in £4,s and recover once they start making money.
Cash is king, continues to post enourmous bottom line losses £24m and £17m. Yes solid revenue increases but maybe buying business in an overcrowded arena. The positives are overly sold, time will out - Only for the very brave. Future looks bleak with supply chain issues and freight costs that data shows wipes out most of the margins.
Late rns Goldman Sachs adding back in cheaper.
Skier AKA Muppet !!
As predicted, the bears are in control.
Shareprice is plunging.
Skier post doesn’t quite tally with facts..
Since its IPO in September 2020, THG has consistently delivered ahead of its targets set at the time of IPO and recently reported a strong first half performance across all divisions, with Group revenue of £958.8m, +44.7% YoY (CCY).
The Group also has a very strong liquidity position as it enters its peak trading season, with available cash as at 30 September 2021 of £700.0m across long dated 3-5 year facilities.
PSquared have taken advantage of the low price now people are making it easy for Numis’ shorting clients who think it’s worth “0” lol (no manipulation there at all lol), update in a week and already have been told £700m liquidity and a billion quid revenue as they go in to the busier half of the year.
Happy trading the momentum.
How insightful skier - I'll hold and accumulate, but thanks for your advice !
Thanks for advice.
Be careful here, folks.
Cash burn, funny structure, and a disastrous CEO presentation mean the bears are now in control.
The UK (as a whole) has not built a single big company anywhere in the world since the last century. The London stockmarket is dying. The odds and culture are thus heavily stacked against THG.
After a huge -65% shareprice collapse in ~6 months, the charts for now suggest 75p is more likely than £7.50.
Amazing how every broker but a few still have £7 price target before earnings!!!!
Once we see earnings, I think that raises. This will double from £3 as soon as there is some positive news - please THG don't drop another clanger and lets get there!
Broker Liberum said on Wednesday that the collapse in the THG share price a day earlier was unjustified.
Shares in the company tumbled 35% on Tuesday after it held a capital markets day, with analysts noting that the event failed to assuage investor concerns about the group's Ingenuity sales platform.
But Liberum argued that the selloff was overdone.
"The pace of new client sign-ups at THG Ingenuity Commerce, the roll-out of new websites, and the testimonials from clients underpins our confidence in the value of the Ingenuity business and its ability to scale revenue rapidly," it said.
"The company could have shared more detail on the economics and its ambitions/targets for Ingenuity revenues, however, our own calculations based on available data suggest scope for rapid scaling of revenues and a minimum £1.75bn valuation for Ingenuity Commerce."
The broker said that while the CMD did not allay all of the market's concerns, the share price collapse now offers a "very attractive" entry point for a business which it believes is still worth £10bn+.
"There are multiple ways for THG to drive value, including potentially selling its Nutrition division while Ingenuity continues to service it, or bulking up Beauty, which is due to be separately listed, with branded M&A.
"However one cuts the valuation, the shares appear well oversold."
Liberum maintained its 'buy' rating on the shares but cut the price target to 750p from 1,080p.