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It's funny reading the JD sports article about Peter Cowgill. He also held the joint CEO/chairman role for most of his time there but the media never cared the same way as MM.
I hope at the AGM on the 10th of June THG confirm if they are seriously focusing on the bidding process OR moving the business forward as per the proposed strategy (listing/separation/SoftBank). I think either will move the share price forward, but clarity is needed. Hopefully they can continue the momentum they started post the Q1/Year End meeting.
If it's the private route, I thought it useful to look at a couple examples to help with possible timing.
THG's first RNS was 10 days ago (19th May), potentially the start of the process....
If you compare this to Morrisons buy out, the first offer RNS was 21 June by CD&R. Fortress offer RNS landed 3rd July (12 days), followed shortly after by interest from Apollo. The process continued to the final offer RNS 5th Oct (15 weeks).
Compared to Boots, Goldman Sachs were appointed 3rd Dec, Bains first approach was reported 1st Jan. Initial interest had to be then submitted by 24th Feb, and more recently final offers 26th May, and negotiations continue. (25 weeks so far)
Investor known in City circles as 'The Welsh Wizard' emerges with £30m interest in online business THG
By NEIL CRAVEN, FINANCIAL MAIL ON SUNDAY
PUBLISHED: 21:50, 28 May 2022 | UPDATED: 21:50, 28 May 2022
An investor known in City circles as 'The Welsh Wizard' has emerged with a £30million interest in controversial online business THG. Richard Griffiths's position can be revealed amid suggestions that private equity firms may be considering bids.
Shares in THG, also known as The Hut Group, have been on a rollercoaster ride.
They peaked at more than £8 last year after the company floated on the stock exchange in September 2020.
But the stock fell beneath the initial £5 offer price and has languished since.
THG investors looking for reasons to be cheerful may find heart in Griffiths's interest, totalling 1.6 per cent of the shares. He is regarded as a City veteran and a savvy investor.
A former sheep farmer and a founder of investment bank Evolution, it was once reported that he conducted his business from the back room of a pub he owns in the Welsh hills.
Griffiths invested in TalkTalk before it was acquired by Toscafund and the telecoms firm's founder and chairman Sir Charles Dunstone in 2020.
Earlier this month, THG said it had rejected a £2billion – or £1.70- a-share – bid approach from Belerion Capital and King Street Capital. Property mogul Nick Candy has also announced that he may bid for the beauty, make-up and technology giant.
City sources say founder Matt Moulding would support an offer of £2.50 a share for the business, valuing it at around £3billion.
The only reason to be nervous here is if you don't believe in the company itself, and if that is the case you should not have invested in the first place. For me: sale of co at £2.50+ (preferred), co continues on current trajectory (no problem at all). Either way I'm happy because, wait for it, yep you guessed it, I believe in the future prospects of the Co.
With the US closed on Monday I suspect the remaining shorts will take advantage and close out their positions ahead of any more possible bid activity, AGM and THG joining various global indexes on 31May.
Reading the times , I think the article just says what we all know MM knows Candy and has been on his yacht , it’s not sir Tom hunters yacht and that Candy probably doesn’t have the money to launch a takeover but has put might put in a low ball offer like Ian macdonald so that MM s bid looks good at around £2.50 probably backed by SoftBank . All my opinion
I wouldn’t worry deos. I started to compare this to some of my horrific mistakes during the financial crisis but I’ll spare you. Save to say we’ve all been there.
The difference between some of my mistimed buys during the financial crisis and yours of THG is I had no idea whether mine would survive whereas this is a very decent share and will return you a good profit if you show some patience. I expect it might pull back a bit, in which case average down if you’re able.
Agree Rock8.
It’s hard to know how many shorts remain, but also worth baring in mind that many will have been taken in the £8-4 range so relatively minor 20p - 50p movements don’t make a massive difference. They’ll close them at a profit and won’t be worried about “burning” at all. Although saw one mistimed earlier in the week :)
Gut feel is that no/negative news this weekend and short trading week will see this pull back on low volume, then hopefully pick up in to AGM/bid deadline.
It’s also possible the remaining short positions will continue to close?
In which case this could well rise above 170p without a bid at least in the near term.
AGM also not far away.
The rise so far has been powered by the huge short positions closing so sure anything changes.
They have been flushed out and I don’t see them returning anytime soon.
Any future rise is likely dependent on a further bid chatter in the near term and let’s see what materialises next week.
My average is £1.70 so nervous this goes back to £1
Certainly not nervous. Holding a load at 104p and another with an average of 91p, so pretty content that any pullback won’t go much below those levels.
Don’t buy the PE t/o stuff though. I don’t see any of the existing bidders being realistic contenders for a buyout or how one could happen when such a large volume of shares were bought at £5. I would say this is MM leveraging his network to flush out the shorts, which he’s done tbf, which explains the muted market reaction imo.
If Candy bids I think it’ll be at a level that is rejected and possibly used to trigger a formal sale process before premium listing. If the US big boys get involved things’ll get interesting.
Not really fussed either way. I’m happy to LTH here and would rather do that and get £5-6 in a few years than make a quick profit at a much lower price. And doubt the shorts will reopen now either way.
There’s a bridge somewhere that has lost its troll
All for diversity of opinion but a clear FUD agenda here. To call the 2.50 magic number pie in the sky shows an agenda, that is generally considered the worst case bid! (Granted no bid at all is a possibility) and that is where plan B comes in. Premium listing, golden share etc. People don't seem to get that this was hammered down exactly for this reason, so funds can accumulate cheap once the PIs have been robbed.
Patience. Takeovers rarely happen overnight when a stock is undervalued. There will be more twists and turns for sure and this is likely to take months not weeks. Strap in, enjoy the ride... We have already come along way from sub 80p but still a long way to go.
Why would a journalist know if bids are coming- I can see why people hate you so much binky- you are very annoying
Facts are 170 has been bid so it’s not going to fall much below current price. King street have been buying up shares so may increase offer (v likely). Candy may offer and is being supported by Bank of America (as per RNS)
And a serial investor who buys pre take out companies have gone big in thg
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-10863955/amp/The-Welsh-Wizard-30m-stake-Hut-Group.html
Amazing you **** yourself over a Shah article - you just be quite the novice investor
Not me B1nky, as I alluded to yesterday, there’s a lot more in play than just the bid speculation, worth researching THG further to settle your nerves.
I also don’t think MM would allow two close contacts to go public with potential offers if it wasn’t part of the plan. He’s been working on this for 9 months. My opinion.
Very disappointing.
No mention of fresh bids anywhere.
The only article is Oliver Shah saying that he doubts very much if the Candy bid is genuine.
If no other bids materialise soon, the share price goes right back down.
I think all the pie in the sky valuations of £2.50+ are exactly that!!!!
Who else is getting nervous?