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Right now TGR have to be thinking smaller. The cost to finance the Suni assets in Mozambique is simply too high, it's off the table realistically. What needs to happen is for profitability to be reached across Sahamamy and Vatomina without further dilution, that would then open up the financing options (minimise dilution) for expansion to 54k and with it considerably increased profit generation if executed successfully which would then open up further finances for Mozambique, especially if the environment by then is more favourable.
Pull off the above and we're talking a share price in the pounds rather than pence, fail on the first part (which is needed) and the cost will be extremely painful.
Thanks for this.
Hard to see anyone wanting to finance the new assets then. Wait and see for existing operations.
When i spoke to ceo he was hammering on about the oncoming graphite defecit. But not responding to these negative price dynamics at all
Currently TGRs basket size for what they are selling in Madagascar is made up of 90% large and jumbo flake and this market has remained resolute with TGRs selling price likely to have actually creeped up year on year rather than fall.
It is true that small battery grade flake remains under pressure and may do for the considerable future. This is relevant as it's what drives sentiment across the whole graphite space as well as affecting the viability of TGRs Mozambique assets however in terms of simply achieving a profitable enterprise in Madagascar prices are still supportive.
https://www.asianmetal.com/Graphite/
See Flake Graphite +195 and +895 ^^^
Looks like market participants need to value to ECG aspect to natural graphite but at the moment nobody cares and the chinese are flooding the market with synthetic graphite.
Hard to see margins improving until there is some policy change or demand expansion
The latter seems to be under pressure as well. 2nd hand tesla prices are tanking
This is the only real source of pricing data.
Seems like synthetic graphite is drowning the market
https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/natural-graphite-under-pressure-from-synthetics-amid-oversupply-slow-trade-flows/
Year is April to March for TGR so no, not overdue - last year was May 9th.
Well due a trading update. Seems to be overdue. Not a good sign methinks. I would have thought year end production figures would have been available.
2 are over £10
BB
The SP bounced off the bottom following Alastair's director purchase but I'm talking about since the two updates on 7th March. I wasn't expecting immediate changes but we will need start to seeing action match talk for a genuine recovery, of which being at 5.8p isn't.
As the year runs from March to March we're now due a full year trading update, let's hope that H2 at least beat H1 production-wise for starters. From there I expect to start seeing progress on the fronts I previously discussed - cash from the Mad gov. , debt facility, reputable new NEDs etc
Agree with most of that HarChris, but you say so far so bad for the last month, yet the SP is actually up on the month. For me the downward spiral stopping or at least pausing can be taken as a positive, we were last updated on Shishir’s imminent plans and now patiently waiting to see if he can execute them..
I don't disagree now that this has become somewhat uninvestable until changes are seen / improvements are made but that clearly wasn't the case in the past. There was no issue in raising funds even as recently as January and the only reason more wasn't raised previously was because the Poddars didn't want to dilute themselves and believed they could achieve all that they planned to with the most minimal of resources.
It was slowly becoming evident through 2023 that Shishir's walk did not match his talk but it was only after the resignation of Isobel that investors truly rushed for the exit. Before that the board was starting to look a lot healthier but after isobel's resignation, followed by Murat, Shishir was forced into the laughable decision to have a board of three - himself, Puruvi and the apprentice.
So far over a month has passed and none of the proposed changes have been seen. The search for a CFO continues, the search for two new NEDs goes on, the $2m hasn't arrived and there's no news on the working capital facility. So far so bad.
I couldn't agree more Gallmat. The problems with this company are not market fundamentals, graphite pricing or getting a VAT refund on time or not. With no disrespect to the posters here but the problem is the mgt and board/governance. The markets are closed for both debt and equity until they get their act together. The company has been all but uninvestable for at least a year as I pointed out before. No serious investors will touch it with a board stacked with insiders. The Poddar family are in breach of their relationship agreement that was signed at the IPO. Also the reserves are not properly certified and they cannot raise grants or other government financing because the accounts won't pass muster. Operational performance and comms are also poorly executed. All serious shareholders should join in trying to press the MD/chairman to make some substantial changes. I know that I'm a bit of a stuck record but I actually don't want to be negative just want the company to succeed.
I mentioned this to ceo on multiple calls but he does not listen. That is the issue.
Talking about 8pct of market when you cannot get anyone to give you a couple of mill usd to ramp up to break even is nuts.
This is biggest issue, this is not executed professionally.
Dfs. Offtakers, financial forecasts and contingency built in
Sadly run like a small family business. Have a go and debug it later.
Personally i cannot see governments taking the company seriously for grants, especially given they could not get their accounts made on time
Plaza, what is the significance of 40 days since the Director buy?
Directors can buy at any time other than the 30 days prior to FY and HY results. There is no restriction to any dealing (buy or sell) even if news is expected (imminent!) so long as they get the correct approval in line with company policy on staff dealing.
The director dealing is a red herring, imo, in terms of any news that may be in the offing.
Delay of the receipt of the VAT refund is only highlighting the bod's continuing issue of over-promising and under-delivering, they need to learn to realistically manage expectations and take care with the wording of their announcements.
Despite my positive stance here, this is an ongoing problem with the comms and just helps to reinforce the negativity that some are keen to jump on at every opportunity. This needs to change
Of course it's real, they've been receiving it each year since producing with $1.35m received previously.
'Imminent' to me always meant that that was what was coming next, i.e funding coming from this rebate rather than a placing, so far so good on that front although the longer it takes I suspect the slower any on the ground progress is made.
If the next update shows they are still only at ~1000tpm/12000tpa they should probably stop putting out the nonsense spiel of targeting 400000tpa by the end of this decade.
Well, 8 days since that last post, and now over 40 days since the VAT refund was declared "imminent". At best, this is creative use of the English language.
At worst, seriously misleading, perhaps bordering on criminally so. Will it ever arrive? Was it ever real in the first place? Who knows?
Graphite price on the move upwards I see on https://www.asianmetal.com/Graphite/
Over past 30 days .
Nice
Someone said 4 weeks tomorrow since Director buy .
So tomorrow possibly news about the Germans or very soon after , you never know when the RNS is coming .
Even better a Good update , VAT in the bank , and BMW , VW want our graphite . Wishful thinking possibly mm .
Agree Scotty! Graphite prices on the rise, that rocket moment hopefully nearly here, possibly an easy multiple from here tbh
I would definitely like to see these shares on the move but I'm afraid there will need to be some catalyst such as significant changes in the board and management. That will then lead to the capital markets (both debt and equity) re-opening for this company. It could be a great company if these changes take place so I hope they happen soon! Access to capital will allow the company to correct the situation in Madagascar, start to develop Mozambique resources and broaden/strengthen activities in the downstream sales and value added products
Price seems to have stabilized a little at these absurdly low levels, so I have been starting to build a temporary position once again since almost a year ago, when this was up in the high 30s and showing signs of rally weakness.
It does feel risky however if it does pop, it feels like it could be rocket a very significant % from these levels... risk / reward
I continue to hold TGR shares.
What about Pending?
Most people’s definition of imminent would be a few days after the statement was made, but RNS rarely reflect the normal rules of language.
One month on, I think we need a new word to describe the probability and timing of the aforementioned VAT refund.
I am still a long suffering shareholder.
Is anything imminent?
To be fair, this is one of the few boards I have been on in the last 6-7 years where I can say there have not been a raft of rampers.
This board is one of the quietest I have known for the majority of my time invested.
Most have just been positive and taken what the bod have said and done at face value. That is not ramping.
There has been a definite change in sentiment, and that is down to poor SP performance, uncertainty and lack of transparency from the bod on cash, contracts, company structure, governance, etc. Possibly exacerbated by the suspension last year which seems to have been the catalyst for the big sentiment shift from posters here.
I still maintain that I would rather be in a producer than an explorer hence why I averaged down from my initial small purchase at 1.01 more than two and a half years ago.
I agree this is not perfect, but no company is. Looking purely at SP does not tell the whole story though.
I am still to be convinced that this is anything other than a hold given my current holding but certainly understand the views from both sides
gla