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RetiredBanker. Your figures seem logical ....... if all the coal can be sold. But if not all the coal produced can be sold, it will have to be stockpiled until stockpile is full and then production idles!
Transnet issues have a serious impact on Thungela and appear to be one of the major causes of suppression of the share price. If you notice last year, Thungela sp got seriously hammered when they reported that Transnet rail problems would reduce their H2 third-party sales by almost a million tons (20% I think? 415 odd down to 330? Look at 18-20 October last year when the Thungela statement was made ........ ). It may have been a disproportionate response, but that seems to be what happened.
I think that the lack of "history" is what is causing many II to ignore this. The potential here is frightening !
H1 figures showed a small net profit and operating margin of only around 10% but this must surely be heavily understated when FY results get reported. Anglo got rid of this because of all the bad PR associated with dirty coal mining and when coal price had been $50-100 per ton. Let's assume they were making losses because their all-in cost was $100p.t !
... but in H1 2021 price has averaged $130 and in H2 around $180 ... even with a 20% discount to the spot price in H2 we should be making net profit of $44 p.t on over 1Mt monthly production ... that's £200m profit ... and I think I'm being conservative !
My worry is the share prices hasn’t risen in tandem to the price of coal but what’s the bets in coal prices have a short and sharp fall tga share price will follow suit. Kind of a lose , lose situation unfolding. Hope I’m wrong and anytime soon the share price will rally
Up 2.69% on jse at the mo. I personally keep an eye on this as i feel it gives an indication of price movement and sentiment in real time. I think the Transnet issues are the real drag on the share price as its not just the repair costs etc. but its the backlog in getting the coal to port. Thungela investor relations wont give out info. regarding thefts and delays as it is deemed sensitive info. which i understand but i get a gut feeling that they dont want to highlight it either. there was a mountain of coal backlog at the mine and as far as i can tell it hasn't improved. until this gets sorted i believe the drag will persist.
Why do you say that the coal price will increases dramatically if Russia invades? I'm not sure of the dynamics involved. Ukraine is a nett importer at the moment, if I understand correctly. And Russia may have already stopped exporting coal to Ukraine last year. It is possible that Russia will stop exporting to Western countries in the event of a war, but China, India and the Asian countries for the most part would not be affected (they won't come in on the side of the West for the most part and Russia will still export to them ...........) - and they are the major users at the moment.
Also, markets around the world will experience a drop, dragging most shares down with them. I don't see coal shares as particularly benefitting from a war.
What is the basis for your analysis? And I hope you are wrong, because as much as I want the coal price to climb, I don't really want a war to break out!!
p.s. still frustrating that Thungela is not banking the rise in coal prices yet .......... could be a Transnet issue and they are not able to profit significantly from the higher prices. Of course, the extreme opposite is also possible, that a pressure cooker effect is building and the share price will overreact upwards in a short while ......... Speculation is almost more fun than reality! :D
All stocks heading south at the moment but price of coal is rising and if putin invades it will probably go through the roof. The SP will correct very sharply I believe when the results are presented March 22nd.