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Good luck with that 69, I'm sure there are lots on here who would be interested if you became the first UK dom to crack the code.
Thanks for the response.
I am registered as a sole trader, my business being share trading. So trading gains/losses count as income alongside dividends, PAYE earnings, pension, interest etc. I cam also offset income against prior year trading losses. So if it turns out that I don't have to pay tax in 23/4, or at least not much, the my thinking is that i could reclaim the tax paid in SA (I assume there is a double taxation agreement with the UK.)
anyway, more in hope than expectation, i have registered on www.sars.gov.za to see if i can make any progress
I'm in here. Good results, and SP has bounced nicely - got plenty more upside here
WHT? Go and live in South Africa, it's the only way.
Does anyone have experience of reclaiming the Witholding Tax? What's the practical way of doing it? Many thanks.
Edwardseaton; totally agree. I WANT the energy transition, believe it is right, needed. But I'm in TGA, and many other 'dirty' energy producers because of the price disconnect caused by the timeline realisation disconnect. Dirty stuff will be needed for 30 years, and thereafter always needed to a minimal point. Dirty stocks are priced as if their product is going to be redundant/run out in 5 years.
On the results - it is obvious that mgmt are clear that their product has lifespan, albeit within a reducing market (and also within a reducing supply), and they are managing that acceptance. It is also warming to see that, irrespective of a particular years profits, that their focus is to return whatever those profits are.
Crazy indeed. But just buy the dividend for now. One of these days, reality will dawn.
People say this is a punt on the coal price. But that is grossly simplistic. What it really is is a punt on the future supply and demand for coal. I entirely agree with the presentation comments this morning - global supply will crumble many years before total demand even begins to decline.
I invest monthly, so in truth, I rather like these deranged prices.
Crazy drop for nothing by 6% high of 480 now back to 450! Crazy
Poor marshall wace timed their increase short wrong lol bunch of sc ummm
This remains a high-risk stock but the results this morning were decent. TGA is now trading on an EV:EBITDA multiple of 0.7x and a PE multiple of 3.2x. Dividend yield 17.6% (before 20% withholding tax) and share buybacks of ZAR500m starting this week. Ultimately nearly everything depends on the Richard Bay (and Newcastle) thermal coal prices, but there seems to be a management team prioritising returns to (the brave) shareholders. It seems like volumes will be maintained through new workings (RSA) and improved productivity (Australia). Entering a third geography would be pure guesswork but cash balances are a healthy $543m (DEC 31). Don't bet the house here. Strap yourself in and enjoy the ride.
Same-again dividend plus share buy-back - what's not to like? Even the market seems to like these results. Any kind of progress on price and/or SA rail efficiency will see a big re-rate here IMV.
A curious lack of flurry in advance of Monday?
I suspect it will remain the case that there are many companies with multi-billion market caps making a fraction of Thungela's profit.
But the wonderful upside is the quite absurd 20% divided.
For goodness sake, man - you only have to read their last trading statement to get your answer.
Just seen was 27 March last year 🙏
Surely sens for Divi should be soon share not behaving
I certainly made the best use I could of the crazy ride down to 430.
Maybe it was just oversold, SA coal over $100 per tonne as well now.
Anyone know what’s driving this move, what a lift since last month
Yep I remember seeing comments similar to this back in the early days of TGA after it was spun out - equity more or less equalled the cash in the bank.
2023 year end cash esitimated a 9.6 billion Rand. (see RNS mid Dec 23) that's 393-394 Million UK pounds. EPS est 31 to 36 Rand ...about £1.35 (see RNS Jan 24).
So with TGA valued at £585.23 Million at current share price, 67%+ of that is currently sitting in a cash deposit. Leaving the non cash assets of TGA valued at only £76 million.
Interesting analysis. Some comments/questions so that I can tweak my own modest financial model.
1. Domestic sales - seemingly 3.826million tonnes in H1 2023. What approximate sales price and operating costs?
2. Finance income - ZAR545m in H1 2023. Recurring? Not a small number.
3. Cashflow H2 2023 - assume TGA paid for Ensham (ZAR4.1b?) and dividends (ZAR1.4b). Capex presumably higher in H2 2023 (maybe ZAR2.2b).
4. Thoughts on DEC 31 net cash number? For reasons stated above, presumably significantly lower than JUN 30.
Possibly time to revisit this old favourite.
Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/miners-set-bumpy-ride-060000383.html
I think those are high quality thoughts.
The only things I would add are that RB volumes have recently been significantly improved (60mt annualised in December), and the unwinding of excess stock in China will come to an end.
What can we expect for 2024 ?
Based on the RNS update TGA gave 13/12 23, here's some rough estimates based on current low prices.
South Africa operation: FOB Richards Bay costs 1170 to 1250 Rand / ton inc royalties. Let's say average of $63. Recent RB prices $93 / ton LESS discount. Discount was 15% in 2023, narrowing as prices fall. Let's say 13% discount- prices obatined $80.91 / ton, TGA profits $18 ton. Times 12 million tons. There's $216 million profit there.
Ensham: FOB costs 1947 Rand/ton = $101.56 / ton costs. Recent Newcastle prices, say $129. PLUS premium to benchmark 10% (see RNS) ... TGA gets $141 ton. About $39 / ton profit. Estimated annual sales 3 millon tons (see RNS). There's $117 million profit here.
Total profits for 2024 based on current low coal prices $ 333 million. Any thoughts ?