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I am already back in. I keep saying to my self to use the stop losses but never do...when will I when my lesson?
It's always hard to sell a falling share or buy a rising share. You always feel you've missed out by not deciding earlier.
However, these are actually the best actions most of the time. Ride the winners.
Well said. It’s funny, I bought my main tranche at about 254p then topped up when they dropped to 243p however twice since I have actually paid the all time high for TGA shares, the last time was early last week I think at about 338p. It has made me wonder if finding a share and paying the highest ever price might be a good strategy?
Lucky, we’ve all been there and I’m no exception. It’s easy to slip and let the emotion get to you, especially if you’ve got other negative things in your life influencing you as they collectively wear you down.
I said before that you’ve got courage because you announced your trades on here. I respect you for that.
You may want to consider buying back in but you have to be prepared for it to fall beneath your purchase price - I find it happens a lot. It’s always scary but I ride the rollercoaster. Kill the emotion and look at the long-term prospects - in theory, it’s more likely that it’ll rise than fall. Short term, it’s anyone’s guess. The caveat is that the stock market is inherently unpredictable.
The latter was a rookie mistake (as I mentioned at the time). It also meant that you had made a second rookie error i.e. letting emotion cloud your judgement.
I have no problem at all to admit my mistakes and to trade Tga was a big one.
Beside the many variables of reverse psychology on sp dropping to 300 or not, the biggest mistake was to sell once i was at break even. Possibly was due to greed not fear has I had put too much investments on one single share.
Instinct and emotions for some are more conflicting than others I suppose. I am no good investors at all this is why I spend hours on end in researching (for what is worth).
I did not deramp Tga.
I simply posted that I sold out due to a SA fund selling...
Funny enough It all came true Tga sp dropped, hit 300p and then raised again, but this is beyond the point, I might as well be very lucky to foreseen such sp movement.......
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
I must disagree with you here, Lucky. You sold for two interconnected reasons - the SA fund reducing its holding and the SP approaching your entry price. The latter was a rookie mistake (as I mentioned at the time). It also meant that you had made a second rookie error i.e. letting emotion cloud your judgement.
Similarly, you didn’t predict the fall to 300p. You predicted a major fall. I don’t blame you for that as I can’t predict the future either.
Likewise, it’s untrue that you “might as well be very lucky to foreseen such sp movement” (sic). You foresaw the opposite of what you now claim to have foreseen.
It’d look better if you simply admitted you got it wrong - so what? I do too, all the time. And that’s why I wish you good luck for the future.
Guys is not that I disagree with you. Is that at this stage with only one half baked 6 moth result out from Tga, FCF for what is worth is as good as other indicators. Indeed some the other indicators I mentioned, given the early stage of the new business entity, can not even be provided or available. Surely FCF will become more and more important, more time passes, as long as the coal price stay this high or keep rising, for a full year results we need another 9 moths to go, so this is why imo at this stage is wise to keep an eye and give the same importance to other factors.
One that has just emerged, thanks to TrekMadone indirect enquiry to Tga about dividends, is the Adjusted operating free cash flow. I have read the ANNEXURE 1 on Page. 63 of financial statement, and after that, to read that anyone here is able to shout (like I did) about FCF or PE with such certainty, make me laugh a bit.
Anyhow coal price is going up and till that last Tga sp will follow, maybe not in a straight line but that is the direction, up.
Any other indicator especially with numbers is a bit premature. For what is worth I have made a projection of Tga sp reaching 10/11£ by mid of next year, and funny enough today sp is more or less following that trend.
Noce work Trekmadone, I am going to need to work out what Adjusted operating free cash flow actually means for TGA, but I assume that will be roughly equivalent to profit for the period.
I trade more than i invest but 100% agree that FCF and FCF yield is the most important of them all. THat's why i bought back here and holding this time as its exceptional!
A lesson on value and for Lucky Luciano in particular:
"Free Cash Flow Yield: The Best Fundamental Indicator"
I asked if divi would be quarterly or bi annual ….
Reply from IR…
“ With regard to your query, it is important to note that the company's dividend policy is to target a dividend pay-out of a minimum of 30% of Adjusted operating free cash flow (which is defined as Net cash flows from operating activities less sustaining capex).
It is expected that the dividend policy will be applied consistently to first half and full year results, thus on a six-monthly basis. In the PLS (pg. 12) we also stated “The Company’s first dividend following the Admissions is expected to be a final dividend for the six-month period ending 31 December 2021, declared at the time of the Company’s full year results in early 2022, in line with the Company’s dividend policy.”
Further detail on the Dividend Policy can be also be found on page 105 of the PLS.”
Talking about ramping hey?
Free cash flow is the number one indicator for any savvy investor .
To that end, free cash yield comes out on top.
Thungela is re-rating like it is because it has the best free cash yield on the London stock exchange
Scooby quite a great assessment of different strategies, depending on the sp they bought.
I suppose been say 100% in profit and having a fund that sells shares can be seen differently in a context of rising commodities price, but been break even hand having a fund that sells, not to mention that many view the main indexes overbought.......
In any case said this before, not looking to be trusted by anyone here. I have already problems to trust my self, never mind be trusted by someone else.
FCF init - is what it's all about Lucky.
Just saying that cash flow is mostly used to asses if a company as the ability to pay debits or borrowing more, like when refinancing etc.
No doubt a positive cash in flow is a good thing, but is not the best indicator to affect a sp.
Indeed possibly the best indicator has not even much to do with internal accounting of a company, but as to do with market trends of a commodity, this is why often even companies sp that make zero cash or are full of debit, shot up.
And this is why I am more focused with gas, coal price and geopolitics, rather than how much cash Tga is or will make.
In that sense though if you like to go on about cash flow, it would be useful to compare it with peers, like I and on other poster mentioned few moons ago.
But for profitability, gross and net margins, net profit, debit reduction, shares repurchase etc, can all be as much if not more useful than cash flow, it all depends on the numbers.
One of those moments, if only... I should have....I would have ....
Sigh ....can't complain :)
In saying that - probably gets sold off in last 15 minutes lol
I have given up trying to predict where this will end up.
On a separate note GU'ON TGA C10% up !!!
have to agree with BCrader about this guy Lucky. Lucky has posted over 140 messages about TGA in the last 30 days or so. He was waxing lyrical about the company and then an institution sells a tiny amount of its holding, the sp declines and good old Lucky suddenly announces that he has sold his entitre holding. Smacks to me of a guy wanting it lower to buy back again.
Wher he did or not, i don't care. All i know is that he is definitely NOT to be trusted.
id second that Scooby, spot on sir, have a scooby snack on me :)
From what I've witnessed, Lucky's posts and disclosures have been extremely useful and open.
To those LTH who bought into this 110 - 250p - of course it is more likely that you would want to hold onto your shares during the recent tumble and TR1s, given that you are sitting on a potential multi-bagger.
To those who bought post-250p, including myself and possibly Lucky (?), of course we are more weary of SP falls since our entry price is relatively much higher.
Everyone makes mistakes, investing in thungela has made up for a few mistakes I have made in the past, but even so I could have done better. LuckyLuciano, BCtrader , you will have both made plenty of mistakes too. Here’s to making more mistakes in the future, have a virtual pint on me.
Well don’t embarrass yourself Lucky by ramping the hell out of this and deramping the hell out of it next . I said when you arrived that would happen and it played out. Prove differently this time !
Just my last reply to you BC.
I did not deramp Tga. Yours is a lie to keep your useless argument alive..
I simply posted that I sold out due to a SA fund selling. These are facts and I gave my reasons, after many started to question me why would I sell out. So not exactly a master plan to deramp..simply free speech.
Funny enough It all came true Tga sp dropped, hit 300p and then raised again, but this is beyond the point, I might as well be very lucky to foreseen such sp movement.......The point is that it seems to me you become the enemy of anyone, that take a slightly contrarian view on Tga and that is a bit annoying.
(by the way cash flow is one of the most useless indicator of a company financial strength)
It takes time to work out peoples motives. When that happens, they recreate themselves with a new identity. If only life was that easy!