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terrace - on the contrary, I think it's quite encouraging that the shareprice is holding around the 350p level.
Normally you might expect a discount to the offer price at this stage, if no counter-bid was deemed credible, because of the risk to completion. In this particular case, given the lack of public support from institutions (not even letters of intent to support the deal), what seems to be a relatively high proportion of retail (as opposed to institutional) investors plus evidence of dissatisfaction among retail investors in the form of postings on bulletin boards, you might build in a small but still significant risk that shareholders don't approve the scheme of arrangement. In that scenario, what would happen to the shareprice? CBRE, as I read their offer, would not be allowed to increase their offer (absent a counter-bid) since they have said it is "final", so presumably the share price would fall significantly below 350p.
So on a risked basis you've got a small chance of a near-term outcome well below 350p, a high probability of 350p and some probability of more than 350p because of counter-bid. You have to come up with your own percentages, but if the answer is around 350p I think that means "the market" is assigning a reasonable (if small) chance of counter-bid.
I think there is half a chance someone might attempt to spoil the CBRE party There has been very liitle activity in M&A in the sector .TEF has been put into play ,the prize is their for the taking .Outstnding opportunity for someone
Greystar can get their project management fees back on 9 Elm s and a refund on the profit element at Walthamstow as well as a number of sites !!!!!!!
>Expressed some concerns about having to take some equity stakes in BTR and possible operational
Perhaps an indication of TEF's position in regard to the partnerships though and the Institutions' careful approach. It sounds like they don't want to take equity stakes and get involved in operational but don't have much choice. Not a good position to be in if that's the case.
right now the market appears to be offering those wanting to sell less than 350p.Not looking good for a higher bid for the company.
Nothing at all to enable shareholders to make a considered choice No update on recent sales or the cash position if CBRE takeover Very disappointing I will certainly be voting against with my very modest amount
Sain, I agree that this document does not enlarge on what we already knew about the reasons for the proposed sale - not even who approached who first.
As to the meeting yesterday, in response to a couple of queries, I made the point that the meeting was rather a non-event (as expected), because the bid could not be discussed. The conversations that I had afterwards were on other off piste stuff not in any way relevant to the bid, directly or indirectly.
Well if you thought the BODS were going to give a detailed explanation to justify the firesale .think again
Expressed some concerns about having to take some equity stakes in BTR and possible operational .Well same rules apply to everyone else.Red herring
Eeach on its own merit and prices would adjust to reflect TEF's exposure to risk of rental voids etc
This isnt the case today and if a problem back to private housing
This will be a situation faced by the whole sector
Watkin Jones have set up a seperate company to manage and let ther student schemes as universities have pulled away from taking long leases .The strength of Watkin Jones covenant has still enabled to pass these on to institutions without any affect on yields
Scheme arrangement up on the TEF corporate site !
I'm not a shareholder anymore.
Blue you should have gone to the meeting. Open to all shareholders......??????
So the final dividend will be paid to shareholders then then the shares are bought @ £3.50? Or Vise versa?
Terrace
I thought you'd have had a direct line into Telford homes? After all these years?
That doesn't help those who were not in a position to attend.Being up to speed will help with the upcoming vote.
A good answer James. Best kept to yourself, the AGM was open to all shareholders...
James that’s very cryptic.
Did you get any sense that it is all over and CBRE win or any suggestion there might be other interested parties.
As a non-local (I live in Central London), I would only add that what goes on in Waltham Cross stays in Waltham Cross. The TEF specific stuff will hopefully be ventilated on August 6th.
Well James don’t leave us hanging....the interesting after meeting discussions were......!
This is feeling more and more like the end of an era.
I went to the AGM and - predictably - it was a bit of a non-event, although I had some interesting discussions post-meeting, not on bid issues, which are clearly the topic du jour. We will have to wait until the 6th August meeting. I understand that the Scheme Document should be out tomorrow or the start of next week, at latest. Attendance was down on the last few years for obvious reasons, but at least all the board turned up and made themselves available for questions after the formal business, when I suspect that they would rather have been elsewhere. I saw that a few advisors from CBRE also attended, presumably mainly to check that nothing off piste was discussed.
Anyone know how the AGM went?.
Let's not forget their valuable partner status and the company they keep .This is likely to push them to the front of the queue Their developments are exemplar and they consitentally deliver Look how they sorted out City North
Mix in someone like the mercurial Urabn & Civic who can provide the deals and the synergy would be electric
Yes they need a good sniffer Jerry no doubt can see a project through whether or not he can find them we dont know However there are plenty of agents who will be offering them some juicy opportunities
Sain. I think your list and comments about Jim Furlong support my point. And yes the evidence is that given all the first rate opportunities you highlight a different group would have performed better. If not what hope is there for any business anywhere.
In early June 2015,the SP here reached 489p,is it really now only worth only 72% of that?.
Exdividend
Well they have made some excellent site aquistions
Stratosphere
Liberty
Carmen Street
Frampton Square
Dalston
Bow
NGQ
Stratford Central
Bermondsey Works
Manahttan Plaza
Horizons
Stratford Plaza
Lime Quay
Avant Garde
Panoramic
Parliament Street
Parkside
NGQ
Upton Park
That is a pretty impressive list
These were fantastic and the fancy footwork on Carmen Street rapidly turning it over was out of the top drawer
Since JIm Furlong moved off the scene I do agree that the recent acquisitions are not out of the same drawer
Both Stone Studios and Bethnal Green which they bought at a "full market Price" in a competitive situation It was difficult to understaand unless they had them immedaitely shipped out to a BTR operater
Stone Studios they have been unable to add any planning betterment and knowing how difficult LBTH are took on the site at a full priceat Cambridge Heath Road with a hazardous journey Today the site price is looking ex*****ve and they are on the backfoot already
Happy enough with S Kilburn and Walthamstow
Unsure about Greenford but Ii thought they had done that as a bit of a favour for Greystar fo consideration elsewhere
9 Elms is a fantsastic deal and its diffcult to beat the United House portfolio I am a huge fan of Chrisp Street and the benefits still to come. City North too-fantastico
Yes things are difficult as we have seen but do you think anyone else would make a better fist of it in the Boroughs I don't