Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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Nothing would please me more than to see TEF in play with a higher bid but if the market thought this likely,the SP would be higher than it is at the moment.Personally though,I would like to see that a lot closer to 500p.
Thanks exdividend, that sounds right now I think about it. So would they come back with a better offer in 6 months time? Everything else being equal, I think they probably would, but of course everything else won't be equal in 6 months time (notably we will be past 31st October), so I think those arb players who might be driving the price today are likely to be factoring in a "failure" value (i.e. no counter-bid and CBRE offer gets rejected) which is where they think the shareprice would go to in the very near-term following rejection.
It’s 6 months.
terrace - I'm going to keep pushing back on your assertion about the market assessment of counter-bid. The "market" has to factor in 2 probabilities, that of the bid succeeding if there is no counter-bid and that of a counterbid.
Easier with a worked example, so suppose the probabilities are as follows:
25% chance of counterbid, fair value shareprice if that happens 400p
50% chance of bid succeeding without counterbid, fair value 350p
25% chance of bid failing without counterbid, fair value 300p
The overall fair value is 350p with those probabilities and outcomes, yet the market would be assigning a 25% probability to counter-bid. You cannot make statements (IMO) about how the market is valuing the likelihood of a counterbid unless you are factoring in credible downside as well as upside outcomes.
Cant see why a UK home builder would be interested in TEF when they could earn a better return building more homes than they would earn from owning TEF.
If there is another bid,it may not be revealed until 5 August or the morning of 6 August.Not much to be gained by action before then.The likelihood of a counter bid is still VERY slim,if the prevailing SP is an indicator.Whatever,the world now knows TEF is up for grabs.
Yes-just feeding off Terrace that the outcome is unlikley to be less than 350p Either another bidder arrives and CBRE will be very comfortable in adding another 50 p or if voted out the company will be in play so 300p unlikely to be hovering for too long
sain, having declared their bid as "final", CBRE cannot increase it (this time round) unless a counter-bid comes in. They would have to wait until they are free under the takeover code to make a new offer (1 year?).
"where the statement concerned includes reference to the fact that the terms of the possible offer “will not be increased” or are “final” or uses a similar expression, the potential offeror will not be allowed subsequently to make an offer on better terms."
Should think CBRE would have another 50p per share waiting ,if required Since they hit on this before May TEF have cleared a whole raft of sales adding to the pot CBRE can skim on arrival
Well I suppose that without another bidder,would we prefer to accept 350p or to continue to be fractional owners with the risk of the SP falling back below 300p.
Terrace - if your question was aimed at me, my central case remains that the deal goes through with CBRE on the terms published. I sold around 1/3 of my TEF holding and reinvested the proceeds in Crest on that basis. But I think there are small but still meaningful alternative possibilities: on the upside that a counter-bid comes in and maybe even results in a bidding war/auction; and on the downside that shareholders reject the CBRE offer and because it was "final" CBRE has to walk (and the shareprice falls back).
A sale by Octopus could be a gamechanger. If it turns out that (the apparent sale yesterday) was just an internal transfer between Octopus legal entities then it will probably be of no significance. But if it was to a third party then things get interesting. There appear to have been balancing transactions at the same price yesterday (one of 80,000 shares and the other for the balance of Octopus' holding less the 80,000). If the bigger transaction was to a single company then we should see the dealing declaration by 3:30pm today. Is it a company wanting to promote (or even make) a competing offer, or is it a company wanting just to frustrate the CBRE offer?