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this is looking like s scam now. some one makes a declaration to buy so the shares rise all the IIs can now offload all their shares at a tidy profit then there is no offer and the price collapses and they short it down and make even more.
some of these rns post show the sell off.
I just guess the toaca fund price of buying. Details are as follows.
Toscafund Total share hold PRICE Position Weight value Averge price/share
? 6.00% 373(ASSUME) 22.73% 8478.29 ?
Dec/2019 6% 373(PRESUME) 22.73% 8478.29 ?
Jun/2020 14% 75(EXACT) 54.54% 4090.5
Total 26.40% 21047.08 £210.47
06/12/2019 2,618,841 3.22 3.86% £8,432,668.02
10/12/2019 5,309,995 2.28 7.83% £12,106,788.60
11/12/2019 5,594,195 2.82 8.24% £15,775,629.90
03/02/2020 5,965,187 1.86 8.79% £11,095,247.82
05/02/2020 6,284,830 2.25 9.26% £14,140,867.50
07/02/2020 6,907,209 2.4 10.18% £16,577,301.60
10/02/2020 7,207,209 2.58 10.62% £18,594,599.22
17/02/2020 7,583,983 2.44 11.18% £18,504,918.52
31/03/2020 6,472,744 0.925 9.54% £5,987,288.20
19/05/2020 6,412,776 1.02 9.45% £6,541,031.52
04/06/2020 7,494,007 1.15 11.04% £8,618,108.05
67,850,976 100.00% £136,374,448.95 £2.01
I guess , Tosca bought around £2.01 (That is my opinion only)
100....sorry but you seem not to recognise the implications of the placing and open offer in June 2020. That action had the effect of almost quadrupling the shares in issue at a discount of over 50% to the market price. Therefore roughly, for every share owned before that date another three came in to being at the price of 75p. The placing shares went to II's and regardless of how many they owned at a higher level the placing and open offer flooded the market with almost THREE TIMES AS MANY 75p shares. I hope you can grasp what that does for the average price of large holders.
You should read and digest these para s from the placing doc.
"The Offer Price of 75 pence per New Share represents a discount of 51.1 per cent. to the Closing Price of 153 pence per Ordinary Share on 29 May 2020 (being the last Business Day before the announcement of the Capital Raising).
The 126,666,667 New Shares to be issued pursuant to the Firm Placing and the Placing and Open Offer will result in the issued share capital of the Company increasing by approximately 284.1 PER CENT(my caps) Shareholders who do not, or are not permitted to, acquire the New Shares will be DILUTED BY 74.0 PER CENT. (excluding the impact of the Offer for Subscription) or 75.8 per cent. (assuming full take up under the Offer for Subscription and no options granted under the Share Schemes are exercised between 19 May 2020 (being the latest practicable date prior to the publication of this announcement) and the issue of the New Shares). "
Accepting that Tosca and others held significant numbers at higher prices THEY THEN BOUGHT ALMOST THREE TIMES MORE at 75p, thus reducing their average enormously.
I won't return to the debate as continued back and forth is not my style but I do hope I have clarified for you the implications of the Placing and OO .
Declaration, I have now sold just over half my holding , realising enough to run the rest for free.
Something happening, either they are getting short of shares to try and maybe get some stop losses out, or the market has had a snifter.
I doubt it if the trade volume is anything to go by.
Is something happening here seems to be going down quite a bit today, just wonder if they are pulling the plug or they are wanting some shares.
A lot of those holding before the placing probably purchased at a lot higher than 300. Don't forget Ted were trading at over £25 a few years ago. Are we too assume then that all the current holders have an average below 150. I very much doubt it. I took part in the rights issue myself and I got into Ted not too long before the rights issue happened so those that were holding before me must have a much higher average. I was fortunate enough to double my holding in the last month to bring my average down yet again. I just cant see Tosca who is the main player accepting 150. That's just my opinion.
At the moment this is the first down day we have had since possible TO.
Addendum
Guys As a relative newbie here I don't want to disagree too vigorously but you need to remember the June 2020 placing of 100 mill shares, over half the current stock(current shares in issue 184mill) which would have been taken up by Tosca and others at 75p, a discount of over 50%. I suggest some of your estimates of the main player's averages are way too high.
100....... between 5 June 2020 and 24 July 2020, Tosca went from 14% of TED to 26%, for most of that time the SP was below today's and between 19 June and 31 July it was below 100p. should you care to do a more detailed analysis than I can be bothered to (cos it's a chore) the link is here
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/TED/ted-baker-plc/analysis
Noggers I watch the daily RNS's which legally require companies to disclose holdings and indirect positions via options CFD's etc and any substantial exits whether of long positions, hedged shorts or other negative vibes are possible to discern (IMV) though you're right I am not the only one watching and as soon as any news is hinted the SP could fall , though IMV not back to below 100 for any length of time , once a company is in the sights of PE it stays there .
Tarzansbrother -Tosca are increasing their stake to the 30% mark. If they get to 30% they are obliged to bid for the company. That's why I mentioned that they could put the first bid in. Tactically it could be a good idea for Tosca and just blow Sycamore out of the water. If Sycamore then are serious they will have to put an offer in that Tosca would be willing to sell at especially considering they are the main player here. With Tosca increasing their stake it shows the city that they still have faith in Ted.
I’d agree 100notout I’d say probably about 50/50 - Tosca bought half their 28% at above £3+ and then the big chunk at 75p - add in their new investments all £1.20 plus - all points to an average above £1.60 - all guess work tho isn’t it - as was pointed out earlier the latest RNS show fairly big purchases all around the current price - why would that happen?
Casapinos
How will you know the tell tale signs if their could be a no deal from the city, i would imagine if they get wind of that the shares will drop like a stone.
How about all the shares Tosca paid over 300 for... Their average has to be over 160. With regarding the 60p area they were there for what a week and how many shares do you think they realistically picked up at that time?
Just answered my own question(always the best way!!)
A quick trawl through the TED RNS's over the last two years reveals that Tosca in June 2020 had 20% and built it up to 26%+ when the sp was in the 60p area,at around the same time Schroders more than doubled their stake from 5 to 11% at prices around 70p so two big holders with currently over 40% of the equity could make a handsome profit on a bid at TODAY'S price. I'm not suggesting that will happen but it adds some perspective to the debate, for myself, sitting on 30% I will be watching for the telltale signs from RNS's if the city gets wind of no deal.
Would be very surprised if anybody came in with an offer prior to Sycamore having made a position whether to buy or not and at what price. Basic rules of negotiation.
I don't know what Tosca's average is on this share but i wouldn't think they would want to lose money on it, but on the other hand would Tosca want to buy it all and at what price.
It's still early days and other potential interested parties will sit on the side until Sycamore and Tosca show their hands. With regards to Tosca they already own circa 28%, they may wish to go in with a partner and if they decided to make an offer they would no doubt use debt to fund it. The fact that Tosca is still buying is a positive. They are not far off the 30% mark and you never know they may put in an offer before Sycamore do.
After some research, it looks to me like it's probably the Tosca opportunity fund (assets$676 mill) that holds the TED stock. Given that the cost of a buyout of TED is likely to be $400 mill+ I doubt that they would go so all in and make one holding about two-thirds of the fund. Therefore the reasonable conclusion is that Tosca's strategy will be to get as close to 30% as they can and seek to get the best exit price possible. Those of you here longer than me suggest that Tosca's holding is currently underwater,(anyone know or guess their average?) but I presume that a substantial takeout premium would solve that problem. For holders, we must wait and hope that Tosca and the others push Sycamore high, 'cos at the mo their is no sign of another bidder.
Adding again it seems. 27.9% up from 27.6%
This is getting more amd more interesting. The only reason I can see them wanting to add is to reject any offer and make a counter offer themselves. The fact they are happy accumulating at this price still tells me these are way undervalued.
Next month we will be sitting many points higher than today. I'm certian
thanks Casapinos for the info and link very interesting and a bit complicated.
lets hope the bid is at least 2 pounds or more.
As I pointed out the other day, takeover rules mean everyone is now playing with their cards face up and the last couple of days indicates that broadly II's are buying, I won't bother itemising all the new positions as they are all recorded in RNS's but Barclays, RM and Currie are all net buyers( about 5/6% of the stock). The City's position seems to be that a bid is likely.
I don't think it's a done deal as Tosca have increased their stake. If they had been contacted by Sycamore it would have put the in a precarious situation.
Hopefully the offer will well over £2.
That way I can get my new car and new GF. I really need to have some fun.
A couple of things worth noting- Tosca AUM (assets under management ) a proxy for the size of the company, is $2bill, Sycamore is $10 bill, so in a bidding war Sycamore have far more ammo and Sycamore already own the Ann Taylor group of apparel companies, revenue $3bill, MC $2 bill, so all in all, Sycamore could afford to buy Tosca's holding out with petty cash, I also suspect that with Ray K's history they would want him far removed from the co and currently his ~12% is worth £30 mill , so not a major financial barrier to a T/0.