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No way am I bullish, but SDIs will be significantly lower this year, less airport disruption.
So adjusted ebit after SDIs might not be as bad as some are saying.
However, I remain negative unless the bondholders block fosun's involvement. Having them as majority shareholder in TO and minority in airline removes any bidding tension for the company in the future if the company manages to turn it around
I am negative on the name - just saying they aren't as bad as some in the market were expecting.
I think we are on the same page - Don't think there is value for the bonds at current levels either.
Group airline bookings down 3%
jj you are cherry picking overall tour op bookings are down 9% so revenue will be roughly down the same, yes prices slightly up but crucially no mention about margins, as Fixed Costs still remain so fewer sales will mean lower variable costs but not fixed ones, therefore more pressure on margins.
Group airline bookings are overall 3% (3rd party may have increased, but this is a small % and a consequence of the tour ops not needing them so they are available to sell elsewhere)
TC itself says 'uncertain consumer environment' and 'intense competition' both of these are bad
As a result they expect the EBIT to behind last year for 2nd half year and remember they made a loss of £163m for FY end 2018
Market expectations were not for the business to perform better than last year as last year was meant't to be adversely affected by the heatwave
You need to look for words such as 'uncertain' and 'intense competition' it means they are finding it tougher than expected
Quisty - When I refer to Q3 I am referring to April-June, the Company's Q3.
Quisty,
Summer 2019 75% sold, ahead of last year. That is better than expected.
Group Airline bookings are down 3% overall, with pricing up 2%. Excluding capacity reductions to the in- house tour operator, Group Airline bookings are up 11% reflecting higher sales to third-party tour operators, particularly in Germany, and seat only in all markets.
Better than expected.
Margins are under pressure. But Q3 isn't that important. It is all about what happens between now and September and the remaining 25% of capacity.
Quisty - did you think they are bad numbers - worse than market expectation?
Q3 was the problem:
In May, Thomas Cook boss Peter Fankhauser said the group had taken a “number of prudent early steps to de-risk our business”.
Individual shareholders, which together own 20% of Thomas Cook, have seen their holdings in the company slump 79% to 5.18p over the past three months due to concerns about disappointing trading and a debt pile of more than £1.2bn.
“We have also taken the proactive step to approach our financing partners and are engaged in constructive discussions to ensure we have the flexibility and resources to continue investing,” he said.
In February, the company announced plans to offload its airline business following a strategic review of the business.
However, in Friday’s announcement the firm said the airline disposal had been put on hold because trading conditions had deteriorated and it would be unable to fetch a price that would make a difference.
jj.. why was Q3 'not that bad' ?
1 - Multiple bids was probably correct but not at high enough levels.
Also, Look at the decline in the market (Lufthansa and Ryanair and EasyJet profit warnings since they said there was multiple bids) will have reduced the value of any of the bids. So not corruption, just not high enough of value to make it worth while.
2 - Nordic business they were rumoured to have a bid for was the Tour Operator not airline (correct me if I am wrong). Again, they didn't say value of the bid.
3 Fosun are part of the discussion, but they aren't confirmed as the main shareholder. All they have done is say they want to own majority of the Tour Operator. They have lost their existing investment but are willing to make a new investment to achieve that.
They are likely to be in peak cash at the moment, and the limited Q3 updates are not that bad. Problem is we have no way of guessing the Q4 (July-Sept) quarter.
You say Where is the corruption, perhaps we should all just misinformed by bod's,
One rns says multiple bids , we are in the peak season money flooding in, airlines up for sale and we won't be doing a fire sale.
When in reality they could have sold some parts of the airline business ( Nordic ) for instance and stayed in business , but out comes an rns without all the information investors need to make the right choices and then do / try a fire sale for peanuts to Fosun. come on get real there is / has been very little truth being told to the investors here what can you expect posters to say.
If it wasn't for some of the bond holders etc who may be trying to stop this deal it probably would have already gone through.