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Eustus, when are the schools back, should you not be out today getting your new uniform for the BIG school.
Could I remind those involved in idle weekend speculation about Chris Fraser that he has brought his family half way around the world to set roots down in Yorkshire and his wife has built a house in the locality.
I doubt these are the actions of a devious man who is setting half the county up for a great fall, ready to make a quick get away. Yes, he's made promises that were only partially delivered, to the disappointment of private investors, but he's getting this world class project over the line slowly but surely in adverse market conditions.
The man has integrity, give him your backing at this crucial point. If you're not convinced you shouldn't be invested and trying to sow seeds of doubt.
“Sadly this has no benefit to the current shareholders...”
Despite the fact that everything you see evolving across all our construction sites is as a result of the hundreds of millions raised at ST1?
The hundreds of millions that the likes of Highbridge stumped up to buy our convertible bonds? The convertibles whose net long position necessitates short coverage in order to minimise exposure? Ah right, yes. Those ones.
As for any deliberate manipulation, woolverstone - to my mind that’s little more than idle conjecture, I’m afraid.
But, I can do that too. Try this:
Knowing that a successful closure of financing is imperative, the Sirius team launch their roadshows in good time. In doing so, they give themselves plenty of time to get the message ‘out there’. After receiving a number of enquiries from interested parties, one in particular strikes a positive tone and indicates that perhaps some formal discussions should ensue. The Sirius, JPM and attendant legal teams get their papers together and negotiations commence.
After closing their pitch it seems highly likely that a deal will go ahead, and we’ve got a buyer for the first round of our HY bonds.
Meanwhile... thousands of miles away, a big orange baby predisposed to opening his mouth without thinking and conducting foreign policy via Twitter, gets out his phone. A few characters later announcing tariffs on $300bn on Chinese imports, and financial markets go into meltdown. This is reflected in the bond market also, where from 30yr gilts to the overnight rate, basis points start mounting. In short order, all the figures quoted in the paperwork become outdated. Expired. Obsolete.
Can a deal be signed? Well yes, highly likely. But not that day. Not until those present in that room knew WTF was going on. We were Tangoed.
Is my little scenario any more realistic than yours? Maybe, maybe not. . At least it doesn’t infer our CEO is a criminal though.
per ardua ad astra
Well I hope you and Woolverstone will be very happy together.
No offence but if I choose to reply to Wolverstone I shall do.
I don't filter anyone. I'm of the opinion that not answering posters gives them more oxygen than replying to them.
Alexios, nice bit of background.
Smacks of collusion but of course all perfectly legal.
Still, being a LTH with strong belief in the social value of the project (for end beneficiaries like those eating the food grown with the product, as well as UK stakeholders) I've nothing much to complain about - but of course I hope the sp eventually climbs again, and as long as large IIs don't suck years of future profits/NPV into a lower share price now, that will happen.
There is no dirty deals done here by our BOD and to be honest it's absolutely crazy to think that CF would risk not getting funding done in the present economic climate ..... CF " i know lets help out a few old chums here" and if because I turn it down now and then the climate gets worse ? hey ho it's only been what I've lived and dreamed these last few years " And of course if it did go titsup I would regret for the rest of my life my circa 100m worthless shares !!!!!
Conspiracy theorists please get real will you !!!!!!!
Please stop giving Woolerston the oxygen he craves.
I filtered him weeks ago because he just drones on and on about mythical dirty dealing by the BOD and CF in particular, his own ulterior motives seem to be to sow as much discord and uncertainty as possible trying and influence as many as possible to sell.
Whether that is to benefit other shares he may have an interest in or that he just can't stop himself from being a troll, I leave that to others to decide.
I certainly don't know the inner workings of the bond market. How many of us here do? A very very small percentage it seems. And of those that do know how many of those would agree or disagree with our timing to sell them when we attempted to last week ( even without world events thrown into the mix ).
Whether one believes Fraser engineered a train of events to line the pockets of his chums is something for each of us to decide based on our opinion of Fraser's integrity (or lack if it ) through our interpretation of the job he's done to bring us to where we are now.
Regardless of his misjudgment, manipulation or lack of control over events ( delete as personally appropriate ) the lining of pockets (if the share price goes on to reflect that ) hasn't been solely directed at the II. True long term holders undoubtedly kept their calm the past few weeks and, whilst some in their state of self imposed angst shouted their panic for all to hear, calmly cemented their belief with yet more investment.
Just a polite question. Do you have a mother who is a land owner in the YM & a brother who works in civil service in London ?
Who holds the largest short position in SXX?
Highbridge Capital Management LLC 2.59% short position
And who is the owner of Highbridge Capital? JP MORGAN
Who is providing $2.5Bn revolving credit facility to Sirius?
Someone is playing the game here
Sadly this has no benefit to the current shareholders...
Only those who jumped out prior to the fundraising announced when the sp was 20p+
Sit this out IMO because there could be/will be more downside coming if markets pull back down again
' with 85000 retail investors with their extended families he's well aware of the amount of votes a helping hand could deliver ' . this is an example of Pork Barrel politics....the worst sort of politics in a democracy .i've been reading it all week on this site . decent people reduced to this !
Chem - many thanks. Do you know when that pod cast was recorded? Thanks in advance
This, from the FT article of 06/08/19:
"One high-yield bond fund manager said that while the deal should probably have included equity warrants, offering additional upside to bond investors, he thought it could still be done in a stronger market.
“Fortescue had all the same issues when Citi launched their first [bond] deal,” he said. “It is now close to investment-grade with a A$22bn market cap.”"
This is the best post I have read all week. Very articulate and consice.
So we await Spetember for our chance at selling our bonds, last real step in building SXX financing. What can we expect in Spetember ?
Fed meeting at about 17-18 of Spetember, expected rate cut and QE desired by markets, this would ideally be the optimum time for the launch of the SXX bond, but only if the markets are satisfied with the FED outcome.
With CITI buying more this gives a boost of sentiment, these guys are no fools and as soon as Trump put off the expected tariffs on Chinese goods, SXX was closed more or less for the last hour of trading, next morning another hour was also blocked off. All trades going through was at about 1mill a min. This is a massive vote of confidence at this crucial time.
So we have been told the bonds would be Vanilla at the last launch, will these terms be improved ? Let's hope not as us PIs will be the ones to suffer, who knows what was said, lets hope it was everything is going mental, we need to sit back for a week or 2 to let the dust settle. At worst they will attach extra benefits to get then away, I'm happily confident that these will go, so confident in fact I have built a huge position in SXX and I am waiting patiently, risky yes, crazy most likely, still a gamble, but I have been gambling for a living for years.
The recent increase in shorts I have down as Citi hedging their bets, let's hope so eh. Keeping a eye on them is crucial but understanding the hedging is key as not to over read between the lines
Boris is a outsider but is now aware thanks to some posters here going a bit into overdrive recently. Most likely the government would sit back and only step in if financing wasn't found, but Boris is no fool, I know this first hand having dealt with this chap, he may come across as a bit of a fool but believe me no fool is he, infact Boris is well known for getting done what he wants done one way or another, besides with 85,000 retail investors plus extended families, he is well aware of the amount of votes a helping hand could deliver, is the driving force for all parties, votes.
No news on Bond improvements is obviously good so far but we will not know for sure until the launch, i would expect the Bonds to be offered around about time of the Fed meeting, this would be the strongest time to offer them as long as the Fed gives the markets what they want ( if they dont it will be carnage everywhere ) I expect this to be nailed by the Fed this time around, as for the ECB they have little fire power in their arsenal left after not raising rates enough over the last few yrs, QE stimulus and large infrastructure building is about all they got, rates are to low to have any real effect by cutting them, the BOE will follow the US and must be aware that Brexit is coming and a substantial package will be needed to head of a run on the banks and the pound, this is all ready and planned, the closing of the banks for a day as suggested by Micheal Gove would only postpone the blood for a day. Go
It does look as though the macroeconomic panic is beginning to ease somewhat. Hopefully that trend will continue into next month. Trump now has one eye on re-election and he doesn't want to go into election year with the US descending into recession.
My shares anytime soon...will add more when I've got the money....patience required ....lots of poly in the ground ...long term mine =long term money atb gla
The bond market is massively distorted by QE.
There is a great report by the Bank of England from 2018 discussing in some detail the level of impact QE has had on the yield curve.
Negative yield curve doesn't quite have the same predictive power.
agree, very good podcast - and how far Sirius have come.
Roll on the quarterly update II
Great find Chem.
If this is caliber of person working at Sirius Minerals then my small investment in the company is safe. Very impressed with JT.
Along with some insights into the start of SXX (pre YP) there is a great statement in the last minute or so from 33' regarding the unique product polyhailite and earlier that some sectors of the market didn't welcome talking to SXX as it would impact on their market share. ICLs target of 1mta is niche, 20 times that is not, however there will be MOP partners as it seems Poly is working well in its blended format so it can enhance sales of MOP. Anyway off outside now, the sun is out.
Another great find Chem, well done and thanks for posting..!
JT tells the story very well and also comes across as a very competent, level headed individual as you'd expect...!