London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Friend of mine (singular).......they just bought in (plural)
Chrisatbirdies, when you write "Maybe he's talking is book" I would have thought that GK's :
("PS: friend of mine who has scorned (with glee at times) my interest in this co for many a year now - and you could say they were right to do so...considering. Well, they just bought in today.")
would tell anybody and I mean anybody that he is talking his book, for an intelligent man to add this to his post shows the contempt he has for others intelligence that they cannot to see straight through his book talking veneer.
**In the same timeframe as we previously hoped**
Nah your fine. At the end of the day we the investors are hopeful for a decent return for our investment. I still believe that will happen. In the same timeframe as we at the moment. Hopefully we will be able to ponder during xmas as to how we think the new stage two will pan out.
Apologies Chris I now see he went circa 10-15 I was still miffed at his 13 billion in his first post of the day which was a reply to a question I had asked earlier, suffice to say I'm happy when 10is mentioned as I'm hoping it;s possible .
Sorry if you thought I was contradicting you as that wasn't my intention
I've just re-read g.k's post again and does put between 10b and 15b.
So he thinks 10b a possibility.
Maybe hes talking his book.
Hope he is right though.
First poly 2022 and over 300k in revenue per day from then should help with finance and upgrades towards 13 or 20mt pa
No Chris GK thought 13'5 I'm the numpty that's hoping for ten
No Chris GK thought 13'5 I'm the numpty that's hoping for ten
If as g.k thinks a possibility we end up with 10b shares I will be delighted more than diluted. We had that many if the failed stage two had succeeded. I would consider that a result. 15 b wouldn't be the end of the world as long as that was it
Actually I was hoping you would take a few of the positives from the webcast as I did so we'll have just accept that we believe each other to be an idiot ! no skin off my nose believe me!
Thank you ffc
Been listening to the webcasts for years. Hence my realistic view.
Your research though is good. Thinking we would get to 13mtpa sooner with the new plan ... no wonder you are so happy.
Maybe you should learn to actually listen....
Aubery yes everything has been put back but I'm sure the ramp up 13mtpa was sooner than in the earlier plans ,, so yes you are correct , tbh with you I take every single word or sentence that is a positive and believe in the BOD.. you don't have to acknowledge every positive I point out that's in the webcast or the presentation but equally I don't have to justify my continued positive attitude to all this ... I think think won't end up that bad and to be honest I think your constant posts suggesting we will never get to where we thought we would utter B@ll@cks , ( we have enough doom merchants)
Now did you get around to listening to the webcast again ? reading your posts recently I think we definitely took a completely different take on it first time around .
basically please prove me wrong if you wish rather than hope I'll play along and justify my posts to you , that's just not my bag
Thanks for forwarding... tough on an iPhone 5.
Key for me is what the new slide 15 will look like. specifically that middle bit the new Terms!
Aubrey.....20mt...of course it was...it still will be, but at this juncture the focus is on exisiting finance to support delivery of 13mtpa.......the ramp up to 20mtpa was always planned to be funded out of operating cash flow....see slide 23
You will know this
12m deferral we get 11.6mt at end of 2025
24m deferral we get 2.6mt end of 2025
Just been looking round the subject and the perceived risks amongst other things.....the two main risk components being the shaft sink & the MTS drives rightly get the majority of focus......but beyond successful delivery of these the other surface works seem relatively straight forward......what isn't so straight forward and potentially risky in its own right, is pit bottom development........
.....risky not necessarily from a safety perspective, although this will be a consideration, but risky from being able to successfuly develop the underground infrastructure in a timely manner to deliver the volumes of product required.....this then leads to the consideration that for such a high volume venture, an existing industry participant could be essential, especially from a prospective lenders perspective.
DMC are involved in the shaft work, what I hadn't been aware of was their experience in many aspects of mine development.....this link is worth a look...
20mtpa was in those early investor presentations. And yes, may not have been included in the prospectus.
I’m working away and not got my laptop so forgive me if inaccurate..
Ffc from memory the revised plan gets to 13mtpa many years later than planned. Half the construction is currently on hold.
The ST2 bond unlocked 2.5B RCF making the bond much less of a risk to bond holders plus the ramp up was fast. New plan is much more pedestrian.
Who knows what a strategic partner will want but I’d guess it won’t be shares (or just shares.... they are so unreliable)
Ginas deal was genius hence my hunch on royalty. Dilution Wont hurt royalty and royalty will rank higher that share holders.
Don’t we need the strat partner to reduce risk (guarantor) and not necessarily provide the $600M. This may come from the banks.
Will no doubt learn soon.... then we can determine if 3p is bargain of the century. But I’m guessing we will have to wait years to get to previous equity raise SP prices.
Aubrey....with all due respect, the stage 2 with JPM was based on the principle of 10mtpa with a ramp up to 13mtpa, 20mtpa could never be a consideration for any form of finance at this stage as permissions are only in place with NYMNP for 13mtpa......additional permissions will be required for the works required for 20mtpa see page 1-44 & 1-45.
Mine operating costs are based on the latest operating cost model provided to RPA and are presented in US dollars ($) unless otherwise stated. All operating costs have been estimated by Sirius from first principles.
$258 million in equity and Stage 1 financing through December 2016 considered sunk.
10 Mtpa initial capital estimate of $3,931 million starting in January 2017 and ending in October 2024.
First intersection of the polyhalite seam in December 2021 and commercial deliveries of polyhalite under offtake contracts from February 2022.
Ramp-up period to 10 Mtpa begins in August 2023, following commissioning of the MTS.
Phase 1, 10 Mtpa production rate achieved in December 2024.
Phase 1a, 13 Mtpa (expansion phase) capital expenditure of $417 million starting in January 2024 and ending September 2025.
Ramp up to 13 Mtpa production (monthly rate of 1.08 Mt per month) begins in August 2025 and is achieved in November 2025.
Annual production of 13 Mtpa is achieved from 2026 and continues at this rate until the end of mine life.
Aubery ,out of monies further raised going forward nothing new there ? I think we had planned to start paying back before the 20 mtpa and don't forget we are now going to get to 13 mtpa sooner then before ? and have they not said that with the new plan we will be able to pay it all off sooner or have I misunderstood that ? without looking I'm sure it's either in the presentation or in the webcast !
Aubrey, you dismissed my post the other day that did some calcs around the $600m funding requirement based on all equity. I think you favour the idea that the cash can be raised by granting higher royalties to certain parties? I may have missed it but can you explain how you think this will work? Quite a stretch, IMO, to ask these parties to stump up the cash in return for increased royalties way down the line, in the meantime seeing their own balance sheets look less rosy. Moreover the present value of the additional royalties granted would have to be significantly in excess of $600m to account for the risk. So what - $1-1.5bn off the NPV? Of course I'd like this to be the answer, given it avoids dilution, but I'd welcome hearing more from some of the advocates of this approach. Thanks in advance.
To add, previous bond sales were done alongside equity raise.
issuing bonds is fine when you’re making cash.
How does SXX currently propose to pay the coupon.....?
In the old plan we rapidly ramped up to 20mtpa. This is now not the case.
Although if fashionable............ lol......... :/
All the best (typo )