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trims - excellent post - I agree that this is no longer about investment,
but hanging on to a slim chance of getting some of your money back.
Indeed it appears to have turned into one of the biggest balls up that
I have ever set eyes upon - for god sake !
However if you take into account the push from the very beginning was to
complete construction as fast as possible with the attitude that because
this is a “world class project” the money will of course appear!!! Then
we were always going to end up here...
This is my problem with the whole damn situation, Casapinos... this is nothing to do with investing in potash production any more, nothing to do with crop trials and tunnel boring machines... it has become a straight gamble on the outcome of some nasty corporate takeover among the various factions of money-men (with politicians peering over their shoulders).
And (like a good Yorkshire game of cricket)... as we approach the conclusion, any outcome remains possible.
One thing's for sure though - if it turns out that we were ill-informed (in retrospect) to gauge the wisdom of investing in a ftse250 potash mining company - we are surely even more ill-equipped to second-guess the outcome of those shady corporate battles. The money guys will hold all the cards, and will know a lot more than we do.
So, depressingly, it's not for me at this point - I think I have about 20% of my holding still in here, just in case of a miracle, but not prepared to risk any more. Bearing in mind that this bid was not internally popular inside AAL itself (s.p. fell on its announcement) and given the overall craziness of the world, I would worry that a complete walk-away might be slightly more likely than an upped offer. Who knows though, really... I have no confidence to read the situation at all.
Realsicilian-it is clear from the sounding out of Pi's for their voting intentions ,the noises being made by Odey, the position taken by Polygon and of course the groundswell of opinion here that a positive vote for the deal is in serious doubt.Given that AAl will already have plans in place assuming a yes vote , to lose would put a spanner in their works.
The ace up their sleeve is of course that the scheme of arrangement is not predicated on a FINAL offer(so far as I am still aware?) and they therefore can still tweak the deal to buy success.
I have said before that the actual cost of buying 7 billion shares at 5.5p is a fraction of what AAL will have budgeted to bring Woodsmith into production,so to increase the offer would be an irritant but almost trivial in the grand scheme of things.
Lets assume Woodsmith costs a further £2.5 billion to bring to full production, then raising the offer price to 10p (another £400 mill?) is only an additional ~12% of the total cost of the exercise.
I am NOT saying this will happen, merely that in the position AAL find themselves in , it might be the easiest solution.
Alternatively their accountants might tell them that allowing the bid to fail, waiting for insolvency and acquiring it then is more cost-efficient.
It's turned in to a poker game ;Who is bluffing? who has the aces?who will fold?
MY speculation (repeated - speculation) is that AAL might pull a rabbit out of the hat at or before the court meeting, especially if a headcount and the mood of the meeting(and soundings with II's) shows a NO vote is likely, they might seek to buy their way out of the impasse by offering a few more pennies per share.
If,of course, the already submitted NO votes from PI's amount to more than 25% they are stuffed! and the deal falls.Votes now cast cannot readily be amended.IIRC AAL cannot come back with another offer for six months and SXX will probably be declared insolvent immediately or very soon after.
Casa
Given that by this time tomorrow all those of us who are going to vote will have voted what would the process be now if on Friday for example AAL sweetened the deal? Would this vote be abandoned and the process started again?
"Odey to vote against Anglo American rescue bid for Sirius Minerals"
Odey only hold 1.4% as stock , but i can't believe he isn't talking to other holders and that the Mayfair mafia aren't colluding.It therefore is looking more and more like a NO vote next week, perhaps both on votes and headcount. AAL have various options- raise the bid (having agreed with Odey , polygon, Jupiter et al what price will clinch a deal), call it off,or wait for insolvency. Clearly Odey and cronies don't think the latter two are likely, thus I would expect a sweetened offer before the vote on the third.