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Amazed with the current price. Can't seem to get any forward momentum, should be a lot higher imo
Halogen free or TOTP plastics and other alternatives are optional. Bigger question keeping it simple - Is vaping growing vs combustibles (Yes). A sensible solution of either recyclable plastics or refillables will be the new norm, is SUP light footed enough to adapt and be profitable as changes come through (I’m a believer that’s for sure). The results of the 5 divisions will continue to grow I’m sure due to the excellent way Sandy and team run the business. I’m very surprised the SP isn’t at 150p to 200p based on latest numbers. They we over 200p when their eps was lower.
There are some interesting points in this article, yes there will be some benefit in the Disposable to Pod system switch but the price-to-puff ratio is vastly different so it's not good for anyone selling them, therefore this is why i'm saying these numbers the broker's quote are not realistic if there is a change to the laws. If you strip out disposables and allow for say a 10-15% revenue replacement via juices then the net would be nearer £15m. 8.5x EV/EBITDA 155p 10/11 x eps 138p.
https://www.vapesuperstore.co.uk/blogs/news/are-disposable-vapes-being-banned-in-the-uk#:~:text=The%20UK%20is%20considering%20banning,as%20appealing%20to%20young%20children
"All that will happen worst case is they need to be made from disposable HF plastic"
Is this your opinion or has this been stated by authorities? the decision won't happen until 6th December so if you have this information can you share the source?
Based on my research talking to vapers in the UK, the entire driver here in the last 6m has been the huge rise in vapers suddenly vaping Lost Mary disposables, targeted "battery type" promotions & a lack of real regulation. The reason for this was the sweet taste and at £5.99 or 99p for 100 puffs it's expensive, wasteful but generates high revenue v the pod systems and nic salts. Lost Mary now sell their nic salt flavours. For £50 you can get a pod system 6 pods and 100ml lost mary nic salts this is 0.16p for 100 puffs. Mary Vapers are moving away from disposables @ £299 for 30k puffs and moving to systems now the nic salts are available. This will have a huge effect on revenue here IMO regardless of any possible ban, Lost Mary was a kids fad like Pokemon. Even if everyone who bought a disposable from SUP moves to pod systems and buys everything with them, the revenue generated is about 10-20% of the disposables. 155p maybe but 200p+ discussions by some brokers without any consideration of what's happening "out there" now is a bit too bullish. What i''m saying is i've spent time on this i've talked to people and i've listened, this is my opinion. I have a position still from 100p which i feel is safe for 150p down the road but i wouldn't get excited here until the decision is made.
Yes it is available now at the link: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/supreme-plc-interim-results-investor-presentation-video-28-november-2023
Will a recording be shared?
Just a reminder that we are hosting an Investor Presentation and Q&A at 2pm today with Supreme's CEO and CFO - you can sign up here to register: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/news-and-events/supreme-investor-presentation-28november2023
There is no ban on disposables, just a government white paper. All that will happen worst case is they need to be made from disposable HF plastic. There will a long LT to actual legislation (always is) industry consultation & the same playing field for IMB, BATS and other industry players that contribute enormously to UK governments coffers. No risk at all to SUP who are ahead of the big players already.
Supreme said its interim profit jumped, and upgraded annual guidance after strong third-quarter to-date trading. In the six months to September, revenue rose 63% on-year to GBP105.1 million from GBP64.6 million. Pretax profit nearly tripled to GBP12.3 million from GBP4.4 million. It raised its interim payout to 1.5p per share from 0.8p the prior year. The firm said its second half has "begun very well", with growth reported across all divisions. It now expects financial 2024 revenue to be between GBP210 and GBP225 million, which is up from March's guidance of GBP195 to GBP205 million. Adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation are forecast between GBP32 to GBP35 million, compared to the prior range of GBP28 to GBP30 million.
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Link here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/strong-h1-results-raise-full-year-outlook
The H1 outcome was as indicated in the recent (18 October) Trading Update. Group guidance for the full year is now raised: from revenue of £195m - 205m to £210m - £220m (ED estimate was £204.2m); (adj.) EBITDA from £28m - £30m to £32m - £35m (ED estimate was £29.0m). From incremental EBITDA of c.£4.5m, c.£1.5m arises from core operations and c.£3.5m from the Elf distribution agreement, which supplies retailers including Tesco, Morrisons, One Stop and WHSmith.
A series of initiatives – branding and pod vape developments in particular – mean that the Group can demonstrate a realistic strategy for the potential changes in the vaping market. Supreme also reports completion of its supply and distribution centre (the ‘Ark’), noting its capacity to support both organic growth and potential M&A opportunities, with £35.3m of borrowing facilities available.
Following the Group’s increased FY24 guidance (revenue raised 7%, and (adj.) EBITDA by 14% -17%), we have raised our outlook to revenue of £221.2m, +8%, and (adj.) EBITDA of £33.5m, +16%. We expect a FY24 total dividend of c.£5.1m, with £1.7m paid at the Interim. Our Fair Value is raised to 225p/share.
New research report here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/strong-h1-results-raise-full-year-outlook
The H1 outcome was as indicated in the recent (18 October) Trading Update. Group guidance for the full year is now raised: from revenue of £195m - 205m to £210m - £220m (ED estimate was £204.2m); (adj.) EBITDA from £28m - £30m to £32m - £35m (ED estimate was £29.0m). From incremental EBITDA of c.£4.5m, c.£1.5m arises from core operations and c.£3.5m from the Elf distribution agreement, which supplies retailers including Tesco, Morrisons, One Stop and WHSmith.
A series of initiatives – branding and pod vape developments in particular – mean that the Group can demonstrate a realistic strategy for the potential changes in the vaping market. Supreme also reports completion of its supply and distribution centre (the ‘Ark’), noting its capacity to support both organic growth and potential M&A opportunities, with £35.3m of borrowing facilities available.
Following the Group’s increased FY24 guidance (revenue raised 7%, and (adj.) EBITDA by 14% -17%), we have raised our outlook to revenue of £221.2m, +8%, and (adj.) EBITDA of £33.5m, +16%. We expect a FY24 total dividend of c.£5.1m, with £1.7m paid at the Interim. Our Fair Value is raised to 225p/share.
Good solid RNS showing good progress
They do look very good but the ban on disposables post-6th Dec consultation could result in a 23% reduction in net profits at some stage as it stands. I'm not here to question this business but that is a significant contribution included in these H figures that will probably go.
It’s only a matter of time before we gat back to over £2 per share. Could these be any better.
Good open and honest interview with Sandy on Five Live this morning. Around 7.45 if anyone missed it...
Hi Trojan, this is old news (see previous postings on this BB). Stop making look like sweets for children (plain packaging) and be sure not to sell vaping products to children (Fully agree). How will that really effect the meteoric rise in sales and popularity with so many converts on daily basis. This will reflected in Tuesday’s numbers and all the numbers yet to come. These and recyclable packaging for cartridges are hardly show stoppers just minor numbs in the road. SUP is ahead of others converting to what looks like the new legislation coming in. (Strong buy for me). Not to mention the other 3 divisions will all have record numbers as stated in the last trading updates (Nutrition, batteries & distribution, LED lighting).
We were 240p a couple of years ago, now we have record revenue, profit and cash on hand without dilution. Sandy will likely launch a share buy back and small dividend uplift as the SP at these levels is so low now it’s almost farcical. We can see also how BATS & IMB only profitable areas are from vaping sales. SUP is more nimble and makes it own with increasing distribution agreements. Also significantly reduced distribution costs from the warehouse consolidation with additional
growth space just completed. The SP uplift has started to rise this week, will rise further after results RNS next week, rise further again on broker re-ratings thereafter. All IMHO of course, but I’d bet a large sum I’m calling this correctly. 😀
Supreme (AIM:SUP), a leading manufacturer, supplier and brand owner of fast-moving consumer products, will be conducting an Investor Presentation covering its interim results for the period to 30th September 2023.
The online event will be hosted by Sandy Chadha (CEO) and Suzanne Smith (CFO) and will take place at 2.00pm on Tuesday 28th November.
This is open to all existing and potential shareholders. Questions can be submitted during the presentation and will be addressed at the end.
Link to register: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/news-and-events/supreme-investor-presentation-28november2023
It’s strange to think we was 240p before, no dilution and record top and bottom lines and cash on hand coming (see trading update) and we are languishing at 103p ish these days. [Horrible UK markets, that seem to ignore consistent growth and success). SP’s always find their true levels and I’m sure Sandy and team will have some more good news in the results current and forward statement segments. When people will realize SUP is going places and we get back to nearer 200p I don’t know……
Supreme plc issued a trading update for the 6 months ended 30th September this morning. Trading is in line with management’s expectations for FY24 revenue of around £195 - £205 million and Adjusted EBITDA of approximately £28 - £30 million. This would equate to FY topline growth of 28% and adjusted EBITDA growth of over 50%. The Elf distribution opportunity has exceeded initial expectations and contributed to around half of the reported revenue and gross profit growth in the Period. Profitability ratios are high, the balance sheet is solid. Valuation also looks very attractive with forward PE ratio at 6.9x top quartile for the sector, dividend yield at nearly 3.6% is decent too. Share price lacks positive momentum, there is no rush to buy. But SUP is certainly worth monitoring for the longer run...
...from WealthOracle
wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/SUP/822
Couple of key phrases in the RNS:
"revenue in excess of £100 million" - remember this is just the first half of a growing year, the idea that ED's forecast revenue would be £204m seems too low.
"Adjusted EBITDA of no less than £15 million" so the forecast EBITDA of ED of £29m full year seems too low too.
"the Group's four other categories that have, without exception, all reported strong revenue and gross profit growth."
The words I pick out are WITHOUT EXCEPTION so that's growth in all of batteries, lighting, sports and household.
This along with their proactive actions today, are extremely positive. I bet you the SUP team watched that recent Panorama episode on Vaping and had a Board Meeting straight after - and today is the outcome from that meeting. Well played.
Lots of time to migrate to refillable of which they have an excellent range. It’s just a government consulting paper anyway. Also option to change the disposables to halogen free / bio degradable as well. SUP are just taking earlier than needed moves and responsibilities way ahead of BAT & IMB etc, need to be commended. A total non issue at the end of the day regarding continuing revenue and bottom line growth.
Sandy is an excellent CEO with a lot of skin in the game. The lighting LED overhang is sorted, the new warehouse consolidation with growth capacity completed. (Improving margins more). Bigger and better financials coming out each half than when the SP was 240p P/S. Normal market logic would dictate we should now be above 240p on like for like P/E and much higher probably on a forward P/E ratio. Of course we are in a very negative UK sentiment market right now but this will change immediately inflation drops to less than 3% and interest rate drops are on the horizon. When that is signaled shares like SUP will get a huge uplift. Back to 240p should be a achievable in 6-12 months market, interest rates and inflation dependent.