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. . . yet a bounce on the path ahead.
Oh I love to see a couple of opinion-based posts trying to undermine belief. I've seen so many "dog still falling" type posts over the last year. Sometimes they're right (I did lose on RMS which was a silly rush of blood to the "buy-button", thankfully minimised the loss to 20%), but often they're wrong (check Valirx as a prime example - six months sitting in the doldrums at 19-21p, while several voices used the same phrase of "this is a dog of a share"). It briefly touched 17p and has since tripled in a month.
It's all a matter of timescale; are we expecting an immediate and everlasting rocket ? No. Are we expecting significant progress next year ? Something like that. So today's price is just a step on the journey.
It's weird seeing comments about this share being a dog, (or similar deramping nonsense) when it's right at the point of inflection. Are they trying to convince people to sell so they themselves can accumulate at a lower price, whilst all the time knowing the fundamentals are in place ?
To reiterate RNSs over the last 12-18 months to provide evidence of the fundamentals:
Technical Product perspective:
AEGIS H2H study published May 2020 confirms efficacy is equivalent of I.V. This study is reiterated with further study published in August 2021.
June 2020 - Ferracru/Accrufer confirmed as suitable treatment for patients with IBD, or with Hypertension
July 2020 - publication in Nephrology Dialysis Transplantation confirming Ferracru/Accrufer efficacy in those suffering with kidney disease
March 2021 - the BMJ publishes positive results from real-world field trial of Ferracru/Accrufer
In other words, it works. And there's a market for it.
From a business perspective:
Federal approval granted in: USA, Europe, Australia, China, NZ, South Korea.
Oct 2020 - TEVA Pharma withdraws its legal claim to copyright infringement
Licence Agreement struck in South Korea (Aug 21)
Licence Agreement struck in China
European Sales in 2020 up by 70% over 2019 (albeit from a very low base !) followed by 50% increase in sales volumes in 2021 over 2020.
A sudden drop in revenues in H1 2021 to only £500K - not really addressed in half-year report, but inference is that Norgine is not doing the business. That can be addressed either with Norgine or with an alternative route to market.
Brian Groch leading on US market penetration, while Tim Watts replaced by Greg Madison, and a new CFO in place since the Spring 2021.
To look at the 1 or 2 year chart on its own, you'd be fooled into thinking it's a dog. But as soon as you look at the detail you see it's either on the launchpad, or trundling its way towards the launchpad (I believe it's the latter, tbh).
Now is exactly the time to accumulate, which is why you get those "this company sucks" type of posts. They're smart people, really. A-holes. But smart a-holes.
Long post - sorry. Just my way of explaining why I believe this is the time to buy and/or hold, even if there's yet a bou
This dog still falling what a surprise
Agreed. They have had loads of time to crank this up and have not done so. Waste of years.
IMO SNYG SP is nuts for where it is and assumes everything best case. Other therapeutics are alreading ordered and competition for COVID therapies is and will be intense.
STX just need to be operationally good to make it work. Its a big just but they have a manager who has done it before, so....
Europe is a worry though. Maybe time to put Norgine on notice....no time to waste
Have got sore arms pinching myself here, lol ! Horrendous paper losses, then I look at :-
Synairgen - hoping for decent P3 data sometime next year .... mcap £403M
Angle - patiently awaiting FDA approval (!!) .... mcap £291M
Shield Therapeutics - FDA approved, selling product all around the world and expanding markets .... mcap £77M - BONKERS.
Back to the pinching again !
I guess no update from STX till January now. Any Q3 news they would have released by now. I was hoping for news on payor coverage at least but doesn’t look like it is happening. Of course this is not necessarily bad news. New CEO wants his ducks in a row I imagine. More patience required I’m afraid.