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Jimie
only for your information via paste and copy from an Viatris rep account
Successful result with 25 rx writers consistent in Q3 and Q4.
(My take : It could be much more as 25 rx. One rx writer could fill more as one prescription. )
-------------
Professional Sales Representative
Viatris
Launch and Promote Accrufer, the only FDA approved iron for all adults
regardless of underlying condition
• Q2 - 116% goal attainment and finished 12th in the nation
• Q3 - 90% goal attainment
• Q3 – Grew Memphis S. territory at 196% growth total prescriptions
• Q4 – 88% goal attainment as of 12/22/2023
• Consistent successful results with 25 new writers in Q2 and Q3
MVP Accrufer Detail Award Winner for Wave 3 Training
I think whoever is left holding here (myself included) is hoping for some game changing news which is going to dig us out of the huge chasm they’ve thrown us in.
What that might be is anyone’s guess.. takeover, inward investment, new partners, new territories. They certainly are not going to get the market to back any equity raise that’s for sure after this latest screw up by Greg.. with Trust totally shot to pieces hard to see where the company goes from here.
As for the funds on the register, wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve all bailed too.
Amazing to think Shield have this priceless iron deficiency cure and have totally effed it up. Expectation for survival (never mind success) have never been lower.
And in many ways, worst of all, no RNS stating regulatory investigation of the company yet, which IMO should absolutely be in motion.
I mean, what on earth does it take?!
Even if this latest 'mishap' was only the first questionable act (if only), this recent one alone should, IMO, be under formal scrutiny. Even if their errors were 'only' incompetent rather than something more sinister, heads should have rolled by now. That nothing further has been forthcoming increases the absolute stench here, IMO.
The issue with the over estimating of prescriptions and blaming it entirely on a 3rd party is bizarre IMHO.
As prescription numbers are reported after period end i am not sure why any estimation is required and this has never previously been mentioned to the market via RNS.
For example in Sept we were told that the H1 prescriptions were 26,284 - not estimated, but were reported as actual numbers.
In the Feb 2024 RNS we were told the estimation was flawed and numbers were marked down, including both Q1 and Q2 2023. Well Q1 2023 finished almost 11 months previous so even accounting for a time lag these 'estimates' should have been validated a few months afterwards.
So there are 3 issues here - the estimation methodology used (which STX should have reviewed and approved anyway), the fact that STX never told the market that prescriptions reported were not 100% accurate and were devised via this methodology and then thirdly that STX weren't verifying actual number vs estimates in a timely manner.
All 3 are 100% down to the BOD - yet no admission of error, no resignations and no doubt no clawback of bonuses
It simply comes down to how much (if anything) you can trust with this outfit.
Still no inside buys (lol), no TR-1's (incredible!) and no update on the apparent third party issue that resulted in this company misleading the market with an earlier update, that is at best a failure of fiduciary duty. We know what it is at worst.
Either way, they have destroyed shareholders here.
I just cant get my head round why the prescriptions growth has dropped off so badly in Q4. This was supposed to be when the 100 strong sales team got bedded in properly and would be running at full speed. Yet they managed a 4.8k increase in Q2 over Q1 (when the full team had not even been hired & trained), yet only 5.3k in Q4 over Q3. Or to put it another way, each sales rep (on average) contributed to an additional TX of 17 per month. Which just seems shocking, no other word for it. Comparing Q3 & Q4 2022, there was a 26 tx increase per sales rep (as I understand they had only 25 reps at that point), without the new marketing campaign and strengthen sales management team and each rep covering a smaller area (thus having a more targeted approach). I bet some reps are doing much better than 17 per month, which means some are probably contributing to single figure TX growth. Something has/is going wrong on the sales front. Lost a lot on this one and still holding 3/4 of my original investment. My fault (although CEO has a lot to answer for!), but I just didn't see sales growth slipping this badly.
Thanks frankie
Yes, you are right. Thx for the feedback
Ok, when I read this excerpt (see below) or overview of the market research on IDA, I simply cannot believe that Shield is languishing at 2.5, 6 or even 10 cents and that the company has no money left.
I know, of course, that management has made catastrophic mistakes, particularly Sterritt and Watts.
The research particularly examines the large, important markets that are lucrative for pharmaceutical companies. There are USA, Europe (UK, Italy, Germany, Spain and France). Yes and there is also JAPAN. Why the hell doesn't Shield have a partner in Japan?
Even if you find a partner right now (which can't actually be that difficult) and negotiate the contract with low royalties and a high number of milestones, especially at conclusion, we are free of all worries and can look positively into the future.
I also googled the Shield and Viatris teams in Linkedin and other programs. This is all fine now and some have even won prizes for boosting prescriptions in a big way.
There were a few departures from Shield in September/October 23, including 2 very experienced reps who were at Shield before 2023 and were part of the 22 team.
However, these positions were all filled again promptly.
Here is the link to the reading sample
https://www.delveinsight.com/report-store/iron-deficiency-anemia-market
And that's what they write about our medication
Feraccru/Accrufer (Ferric Maltol/ ST10): Shield Therapeutics
Feraccru/Accrufer is a novel oral product that addresses the needs of patients who cannot tolerate existing oral iron products and offers a clear alternative to IV iron therapy. The drug is formulated as a capsule of ferric maltol containing 30mg iron, Ferric maltol is a tightly bound iron complex which does not dissociate so it is well tolerated and delivers the iron to the duodenum where the body absorbs iron naturally. Unabsorbed ferric maltol passes harmlessly through the digestive system as an unaltered complex and is excreted. Therefore, the drug offers a convenient, well tolerated and efficacious oral treatment alternative to IV iron therapy, without the need for hospital-based administration. The company’s lead product, Feraccru/Accrufer, has been approved for use in the US, European Union, UK and Switzerland and has exclusive IP rights until the mid-2030s. In the European market the drug is marketed by the name of Feraccru.
Should actually sell like hot cakes...
Full year 2023 total revenue and other income of $17.5m compared to $6.2m in 2022
Full year 2023 Accrufer® revenue of $11.6m, approximately three times more than the prior year
21% increase in H2 Accrufer® average net selling price to $145/prescription
Looks like buying interest is picking up
I purchased some this morning
The cash of $17mln is re qssuring and the fall from 6p seems a bid over the top
Frankie1x, we have several major shareholders, each holding less than 5% of the company's shares. This percentage serves as the requisite threshold for UK companies to inform the market of any changes in their holdings through a TR1 notification.
Jupiter Asset Management Ltd 4.364 %
Premier Fund Managers Ltd. 3.836 %
LGT Capital Partners AG (Investment Management) 3.669 %
KW Investment Management Ltd. 2.641 %
Jarvis Investment Management Ltd. 1.680 %
Given the substantial number of shares traded at the end of last month, I am inclined to believe that at least two major shareholders have offloaded their shares to the market and cashed out.
Regardless, the past is behind us, and we've observed a nice buying momentum gaining traction since the start of this week. I can see the share price smoothly rise back to the 4s from its current level. The technical chart is currently indicating a significant oversold condition on both the weekly and daily charts, making it an appealing prospect for chart and momentum traders as well.
If iron tablets gave gastro disturbance then accrufer would be a sensible alternative rather than iron infusion in hospital. Definate use case but uptake for this use case might need more evidence base but a sensible doctor should explore if iron deficiency resolution becomes standard of care for long covid patients
Would our product help here, if traditional iron tablets don't work well if a patient had inflammation?
https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/low-iron-levels-resulting-from-infection-could-be-key-trigger-of-long-covid
I'd take 6p just to be out of this p o s. Worst managed company I have ever invested in. Shocking....
Investing in small pharma's is a hight risk adventure. Towards to end small Pi's get roasted and the big pharma whip awaythe prize. I am so suspicious as to why nor holding rns's have been forthcoming which makes me think the large shareholders are cooking up a takeover for a song.. They cannot afford though to let it go pop or the sales of accufer will implode due to lack of confidence...
The silence is definitely strange.
No change for shareholders with more than 3% shareholding, neither sale nor acquisition. No new shareholders with more than 3% either, even though 163 million shares changed hands on the first day of the crash.
No insider purchases.
I'm not very familiar with AIM's regulations, but on this point it shouldn't be any different from other markets.
When a holding is sold, insiders are not allowed to buy.
Of course it's speculation. For me everything points to a sale.
There can be no new public offering with this share price. According to my information, Shield needs a little over $16 million to break even with a continued Rx increase rate of 22%/quarter and a retail price of $150/package.
A new loan is also not very likely, as Shield is missing the covenants for the SWK loan.
So all that remains is a sale. The question is at what price.
Have you ever given any thought to why no director is buying at 2.5 pence with them being so far underwater 'allegedly'?
anyone any thoughts?
Thankyou
Accrufer price per capsule has jumped from $8.47 to $8.98 since 10th Jan 2024. The prices are before rebate is applied.
https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/ben.link/viz/DrugPricingNADACDashboard_16656685650270/Dashboard1
Getting in at these prices is a dream come true :)
Getting in at these prices is at bargain baement prices
Nice isn't it
He bought 1,000,000 shares at 37p!!!
Wow wold not like to be in his boots 👢
Plenty of other buys by directors like:
748,000 @ 60p ow that really hurt.
For 2,200,000 shares @6p a piece.he must be wetting himself seeing the share price down to 2p
He owns 5,500,0000 ahres in total pretty large loss to swallow.
No hope, no business, no nothing! Man, once I thought it's gonna be a multi billion dollar business, look at it now. Sad times for all AIM shareholders.